$2/$5

UTG and UTG+1 limp. I limp with 77. Guy to my immediate left raises to $25. Literally every player calls as do I.

9 to the flop

Flop ($225) 7h 4h 3h. The four guys before me check. I have $325 behind. There are a couple $200ish stacks but the rest cover me. What do you do here?

All in and hope to get called by 4 flush draws.

There are two ways to approach this. Shove now. It is well over pot but you can get a lot of moderate draws to fold that have a good chance against your hand but have to fear high flush draws. This has a reasonable chance of taking the whole pot down now.

The other option is to bet $100 to try and suck multiple opponents in. Risky, but gives you a better chance of getting more then one opponent in the hand.

Limp/shove pre is what I'd prolly do. Table dynamics unknown to readers, tho.

Easiest shove in the world

Yeah, I pushed all in. Just checking. Everyone folded

Really interesting spot.

Based on my math the chance that any given hand contains two hearts is just above 4%. That would suggest that 1/3 of the time you're up against a made flush, though the real number is somewhat higher due to card removal and peoples propensity to play suited cards. Say it's 40% you're up against a flush (suspect it's a bit lower). Also say you never get called by worse ( a conservative assumption as sometimes you'll get called by Ah, a worse set or an overpair).

Shoving is definitely +EV. We're betting $325. 60% of the time we win $225 for an EV of $135. 40% of the time we get called by a flush. We win 1/3 of those for a total EV when called of (1/3*$550-2/3*$325)*0.4=~-15.

I'm pretty sure this isn't quite right. Odds of being dealt 2 suited cards are 23.5%.(reference ) Hearts specifically must therefore be about 6%. 9 players in hand so odds (before flop) are about 54% that one player has hh.

Odds that a player with 2 suited cards flops flush are 0.84% (see same reference). Therefore odds that 1 player flopped a flush on this board is 0.84 * .54 = 0.45% (1 in 200).

Not trying to be a wise ass... but let me know if you think this calc is closer.

^^^ er... this calc omits the fact that the mono-toned board has already happened. Never mind, carry on.

The odds may be 23.5% to get dealt suited cards making it 6% that someone was dealt suited hearts, but what about all the suited hands that people dont play for a raise? J5s? T2s ect...

On first point your calculation ignores the fact that we know 5 cards that aren't in anyone else's hand, 3 hearts and 2 non-hearts so 10 hearts left of the remaining 47 in the deck. Odds that any given person with a random hand has 2 hearts is 10/47*9/46 which is about 4%. As noted that is an underestimate though because people are more likely to play suited hands and if we know one player doesn't have 2 hearts it makes it more likely that another player does.

On second point, that's the chance that you flop a flush if you hold two suited cards. that includes all flops, so doesn't take into account that our flop has 3 hearts. Once you know the flop has 3 hearts the relevant question is whether any person has 2 hearts in their hand. Doesn't matter how likely they were to flop a flush once a monotone flop comes out.

Just generally, your second number can't be right. If it really was the case that we're only up against a flopped flush 1 out of every 200 times, it would mean we would be shocked to be against a flush here. That can't be the case on a monotone board. It may not be probable that we are facing a flush 9-way, but it wouldn't be very surprising.

Same point holds true for unsuited cards, except more so. People have more suited combos in a raised pot than would be expected based on pure probability because all things being equal people are more likely to play suits cards.

FWIW, PokerCruncher gives odds against 8 random hands 26.7% that one of them has flush.

Hero could make two 3/4 PSB if he was deeper in order to get value from single heart hands twice. With only 1.5 PSB left, better to shove and try to get value from high heart hands who think they have overcard outs. WP

So we're good a little over 70 percent of the time? I like the shove and it gets people off the four card Ace high flush draw


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I'd be more realistic and assume a flush is present 50% of the time, tho I can't argue with your logic and can't give you a reason other than intuition

Interesting. I can't argue against poker cruncher both because I assume it's right and because it doesn't really show its work, but I can't figure a number that low.

Easy shove,the thought that you lost value or to get tricky is clouded be the result.If you check,it often gets checked around and you hate almost all turns.

these are not random hands

If you plugged in only playable hands I'm sure you will get a different number and I bet it's greater than 50%

I would check this flop in fact since you only get called by better hands, even undersets might have a problem looking you up

I like check for a few reasons but if i'm betting, which is fine, I like a normal value pot building amount like 100, which gives you the right odds to call a jam

You are certainly free to plug in reasonable range for everyone's starting hand.

Point of that number was to establish a baseline for discussion.

meh, too much work, i'm a poker player and inherently lazy

The real question, is why u started this hand with only $350

Buying in for max isn't mandatory. I normally buy in for $300 and go from there. Sometimes I add on to $500 and sometimes I dont. It all depends on the action at the table, who is at the table and what position they are in. Sometimes Im at $500 pretty quickly without adding on.

What I really like about it is that I play quite a bit differently with $300 than I do with $600+ but most people don't know the difference or why Im doing that.

Its pretty rare in the games I play in to get a full $500+ stack all in during a hand anyway.

Shoving on this board looks like an overplay to me. You're either folding out everyone or getting called when you're crushed. Prefer to make a standard 50-70% PSB and evaluate from there if you're betting. I prefer to check/evaluate 9-way though.

Top set on this board and these many players is a recipe for disaster imo.