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Facing a turn overbet

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10-19-2015 , 09:15 PM

RockyMoose

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 418

Villain is a young guy who looks and acts like a frequent player. Was very chatty until he paid off OMC in a big pot a few hands ago and has been silent lately and might be tilting, hasn't reloaded yet. Hero's image is nitty.

1/3NL

Two weak OMC players limp. SB is already telegraphing a fold. Hero is button and raises to $12 with T

Villain (~$134 BB) calls. One other caller.

Flop ($32) T

Two checks. Hero bets $20. BB calls, one fold. Head up to the turn.

Turn ($72) J

Villain ships all in for $102. He's staring into the distance, not moving, won't acknowledge any of my questions ("how much?" "why so much?" "what do you have?")

Strange bet. Criteria to determine if this is a Hero call or fold? Comments on all streets welcome.

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10-19-2015 , 09:22 PM

Luisgamble2

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 22

Fold. He ships a flush draw on the flop. Two pair most of the time.

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10-19-2015 , 11:18 PM

DontBeThatGuy

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 161

Fold. If he wants to bluff w/ a flush draw, it will usually be a c/r all in on the flop. Probably some two pair and random stuff that he peeled flop and turned top pair with, AJ, KJ, Jxdd, J9, J8, etc. With that range even if you throw in a few oddly played flush draws you're still in pretty rough shape.

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10-19-2015 , 11:35 PM

sungar78

old hand

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 1,201

I would raise more pre w 2 limpers but the cbet is fine.

To me the J just looks like a really bad card for our range and probably a good one for his.

My read on him would be probably some combo flush draws but actually Tx including JT a good amount of the time. It seems to me like he waited for a non diamond turn and shipped. I'm OK folding even though he's got a losing image. A good amount of regs will know that it looks like they're on tilt here and actually try to get value from it rather than letting their emotions get the best of them and throwing it in open ended or w bad diamonds or something. His sizing to me just kind of says that he didn't want to make a less than pot bet and leave himself oop otr w a short stack. Idk, I could be wrong but that's my take on this spot in general.

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10-20-2015 , 07:24 AM

amh1121

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 307

second pair, no kicker, overbet by a possibly competent player... i'm saving the sheriff badge for another hand

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10-20-2015 , 08:10 AM

Dutchstreetfish

adept

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 832

Quote:

Originally Posted by amh1121

second pair, no kicker, overbet by a possibly competent player... i'm saving the sheriff badge for another hand

Yep. A better spot than this will arise.

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10-20-2015 , 11:22 AM

gobbledygeek

Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 36,242

After 2 limpers I'm either/or towards raising preflop. Since the limpers are presumably tightish OMC who will fold to the raise or a flop cbet, I'm ok with a raise if it's going to narrow the field, but $12 just ain't never gonna get that done at my 1/3 NL table; I'm going at least $20. If the raise ain't gonna narrow the field, I just overlimp this nice multiway hand and play hit-a-hand poker (noting that we can even possibly steal a pot once and a while if the flop checks thru to us).

Our result ends up being pretty bad. We flop a weak TP in a small SPR 4 pot against a possibly tilting BB on a drawy board; it's a tricky spot now, imo.

I'd probably hero fold the turn. The OESD did get there, as did two pairs, plus it's possible he had us crushed the whole way. But it's also possible he's getting tilty with a flush draw, and we do have outs against better hands. It's really not that much of an overbet since any bet commits.

Gclose,imoG

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10-20-2015 , 12:08 PM

RockyMoose

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 418

Quote:

It seems to me like he waited for a non diamond turn and shipped.

Thanks, sungar. That's not something I considered at the time.

Results:

Spoiler:

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10-23-2015 , 04:30 PM

ZuneIt

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 2,160

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockyMoose

Something just wasn't right. I tanked a long time. His body language was stiff and I read that as weak. I really thought 2 pair + wouldn't have bet so much because Villain was good enough to try to get value from a nit like me and know a shove would most likely get a fold. Something like KQdd made some sense.

Ultimately, I just couldn't pull the trigger. I folded. Villain showed A8 for a total bluff + gutshot. Sigh. At least I recognized something was strange about the bet.

This is more why I asked about "criteria to determine if this is a hero call or fold?" -- I saw the bluff in his body language, enough to tank when I'm usually quick to fold.

I wouldn't be beating myself up over this fold.
Follow up questions:

Do any of you, in the heat of the moment, try to assign a percentage to Villain's bluffing and factor that into the pot odds? Any tips for this line of thinking?

e.g. "Baseline for bluffs is 10%, but because of his body language and bet size I think this is a 30%(?) bluff. My gutshot draw is worth another ~7%, so I have ~37% equity. Pot odds are 1:1.7 (~37%), so without a Jedi mind read on his body language just fold."

I really thought this guy had you beat. He must have been on tilt much more than I perceived from your text.

Ott, I could see him going all-in with the nut str8. He could perceive you as perceiving him to be too tiltish & call. However, when they're upset over a previous beat, we often tend to stop thinking that deep for awhile.

There's also other hands that could have you beat that he could be tilting off with.

Finally, if the pot odds are exactly the same as your perceived equity, assuming your estimation is spot on, the actual pot odds are < after the dealer toke.

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10-23-2015 , 04:50 PM

#10

jglman91

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 143

Just because we folded here incorrectly against his exact hand, doesn't mean we made the wrong fold against his range. There are tons of hands in his range that just have us destroyed, and especially if this player is tilted enough to play hands like J8/J9 this way, it skews this way more towards a fold. Even when we call and are right, it's likely V still has lots of equity against us. Hands like QK, FD/SD combos we're ahead of, but it's not like we're obliterating them, and when we're behind we're probably way behind."

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10-23-2015 , 08:44 PM

#11

ZuneIt

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 2,160

That's one who agrees with me

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10-25-2015 , 03:00 AM

#12

eldiesel

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 3,585

What can anyone even suggest? Turn donk overshoves don't happen too often. Your guess will be the best one.

What are the limpers' stacks? If they're as short as V, I'd just fold pre. If they're deeper I'd raise bigger.

Preflop is a much better street to discuss than the turn.

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10-25-2015 , 03:17 AM

#13

powrhau5

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 390

I say nh and move on, who cares it was a terrible play. I'm not going to change my strategy to include hero calling shoves with 2nd pair in these live games because they just aren't bluffing enough, and playing abc is too profitable.

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10-25-2015 , 10:22 PM

#14

iraisetoomuch

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 37,579

Quote:

Originally Posted by jglman91

Just because we folded here incorrectly against his exact hand, doesn't mean we made the wrong fold against his range. There are tons of hands in his range that just have us destroyed, and especially if this player is tilted enough to play hands like J8/J9 this way, it skews this way more towards a fold. Even when we call and are right, it's likely V still has lots of equity against us. Hands like QK, FD/SD combos we're ahead of, but it's not like we're obliterating them, and when we're behind we're probably way behind."

This is something important to consider.
Much like the times that we get ck/shipped on the flop and we call with our over pair, and we see that they have like a flush draw + gutter ball or pair + nfd or some such other hand.
We may have been 'right' that time around.
But if he check ships 100% of sets and two pairs, and his strong combo draws only 15% of the time we might have still made the wrong call against his range.

We can't always look at the hand that someone turns over and think that it was the right or wrong call based on what we see. We will need more data points to start to construct a range and then go from there. In the mean time it is just events that happen to conform/not conform to what we expect.

(Stack sizes, reads, other factors blah blah but the point remains.)

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