So I have a confession to make.
I was actually the villain in this one, I flipped the roles because I wanted to get a honest assessment of what my line looked like.
I had 6s8c, when the SB effectively limped into my button straddle, I'm 3 betting a WIDE swath of my range here and then folding to a 4-bet with anything but the top.
The strong lead by the opponent into the highly connected flop screamed top pair to me, so when he lead out like that I pondered it for a short period of time and figured I could win this pot a multitude of ways, be it running cards to beat the top pair, or by representing either one of the front door draws that were available, so I had no issue calling the $60 with the gutter and those options.
Pretty much same song second verse on the turn, big brick for me, but also likely for him too as I don't see him leading out so strong if he just made top 2 pair with JT...at this point I'm getting roughly 3:1 on my call and again I'm counting any spade, any 8, and any 3 as outs for me. To be honest with you I was mainly hoping for the spades and the 8 hitting on the river was more of a crime of opportunity. Additionally, by this point in the hand, he's playing this thing so fast that I'm also putting the potential of a 2 barrel AK whiff into his range.
When the river comes the 8 and he re-bets the 100, I took that to mean that he was basically in "well I bet 100 last time so if I bet less this time, I'm going to look too weak" mode, but he obviously doesn't love his hand or he'd be betting more than 23% pot to extract more value.
My jam over the top was effectively a pot sized bet... I almost wonder if I would've been better off raising him 200 or 250 to remove the allure "calling all-in" that can sometimes be prevalent in these games, but if I had the made straight in this spot, it's the effective nuts and I'm jamming river every time to try to maximize value (GTO gods hate me, I know).
The reason I posted this hand is that I've had 3 of these similar situations, (not with like players) in my past three sessions. I run a multi-street semi-bluff, a trigger card hits on either the turn or river and play it out as if. Each of the 3 times, the opponents have tanked for a considerable amount of time but have eventually called me; one of the times the opponent (who is a good player) had an wildly under-repped set of 5's, so that one I understand the crying call. The other time I got called with a naked pair of 6's (4th pair).
I don't move when the action is on the other player, I don't speak when in the hand and I wear sunglasses, so I don't
think I'm giving anything away but who knows. I've been playing for 20 years and I don't really get "excited" at the table in any spots anymore. This most recent guy tanked for over a minute and at one point said "Do you have J8?" which apparently he was more worried about than AJ, KJ, 44, 55, TT, 88, JT, 67, etc.
I usually play 1/3 because up until some recent, significant work on my game, I've been a 20 year loser, so I'm hesitant to move up in stakes, but I've had a couple people I've spoken to about this hand tell me that it didn't work because it's a 2/5 play and 1/3 players aren't going to think enough to see the line; would love any thoughts on this.
Am I nuts to try run this line at 1/3? Am I nuts to run this line in general? I've been studying a lot of Little lately and I know he says "if you never get caught bluffing you don't bluff enough," but DAMN.