Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
Facing all in on Flop, opponent shows cards Facing all in on Flop, opponent shows cards

12-07-2023 , 02:52 AM
First post, felt the need to create an account after experiencing this insane spot, please excuse/give advice on my hand review formatting

Context: recent table switch, doubled up first hand set over two pair, extremely splashy table. I consider myself a learning novice, general understanding of poker concepts, practicing on implementing them effectively

1/2NLHE

Hero on the big blind with J9 Spades
UTG opens to 10, two callers behind, button raises to 30
Hero cold call on Big Blind (definitely fold pre over time, but I Just saw button 3 bet 35off and 26off within the last orbit. Also definitely thinking everyone behind is calling, and I’d fold to 4bet)

Everyone calls

5ways to a flop of 7s8s4d
Pot 150

I decide to lead for 75 (questionable play, definitely don’t love it looking back at the hand, in the moment my thought process was try to get heads up.)

UTG Jams folds around to me, has me covered, 445 to call. This is where it gets crazy.

Guy is drinking IPAs and in his beer breath says “just fold I have you crushed”

As I’m thinking about what he could have (leaning towards letting it go, thinking my flush draw could be crushed), I flip over my cards to to entertain him… he immediately flips over his pocket 4s for a set. Now the whole table perks up and starts going crazy, the dealer is telling people to be quiet. In the moment with the adrenaline dump, and loud chatter, I wasn’t able to properly calculate. The entire table is saying how I’m dead, Villian is saying he wants me to call since he has a set. In the moment I thought it was a gambling call, I had to go home soon, if I hit a straight flush I get an extra 600 from the high hand promotion, I feel like I have a lot of outs, so I flick in the call.

Turn 2d river 6s

I take down the 1100ish pot

Table talk on the hand continues and players are saying that I have balls but it was a terrible call, basically made me think I was essentially dead. I was happy I won but disappointed that I thought I made a bad call.

Recalling the hand, I had 11 outs over 2 streets equaling 41%
445 call to take down 1115, just under 40% pot odds. Looking back at it I’m much happier with the call, even though I didn’t make it for the right reasons in the moment. Don’t know if my calculations are off?

Just want to get some feedback on the hand as a whole. I’d love to hear any advice anyone might have about the process they go through in situations like this. Also, advice on how to keep the adrenaline dump from fogging up the train of thought. Thanks
Facing all in on Flop, opponent shows cards Quote
12-07-2023 , 04:16 AM
Low stakes style to flat call, but fold is probably better. You could consider 4!, but it doesn't seem good with action and positions.

I would check the flop and maybe checkraise.

Was it 450 more to call or 450 total? You were 35% to win. Your opponent would win if you made your hand but not the straight flush and the board paired. If it was 375 more, it was about even with about $25 in high hand equity,
Facing all in on Flop, opponent shows cards Quote
12-07-2023 , 09:14 AM
You got some gamble that's for sure.

On the decision to call the all-in you know the cards and can look up the equity, which is about 35% for your hand. (Interesting that it doesn't matter if villain has the 4)

If he had a straight you'd be in better shape and have an easy call since he wouldn't have the redraw. You have to reduce your equity estimate when facing a set and using the rule of 4
Facing all in on Flop, opponent shows cards Quote
12-07-2023 , 11:10 AM
cold calling pre is terrible.
Facing all in on Flop, opponent shows cards Quote
12-07-2023 , 12:03 PM
Pre call is terrible.

Flop lead 5 ways seems like the worst option.

Calling the shove is close, depending on the actual numbers (1100 pot suggests about 475 each, and you already put 75 in).
Facing all in on Flop, opponent shows cards Quote
12-07-2023 , 07:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thirdstringpunter
First post, felt the need to create an account after experiencing this insane spot, please excuse/give advice on my hand review formatting

Context: recent table switch, doubled up first hand set over two pair, extremely splashy table. I consider myself a learning novice, general understanding of poker concepts, practicing on implementing them effectively

1/2NLHE

Hero on the big blind with J9 Spades
UTG opens to 10, two callers behind, button raises to 30
Hero cold call on Big Blind (definitely fold pre over time, but I Just saw button 3 bet 35off and 26off within the last orbit. Also definitely thinking everyone behind is calling, and I’d fold to 4bet)

Everyone calls

5ways to a flop of 7s8s4d
Pot 150

I decide to lead for 75 (questionable play, definitely don’t love it looking back at the hand, in the moment my thought process was try to get heads up.)

UTG Jams folds around to me, has me covered, 445 to call. This is where it gets crazy.

......

Just want to get some feedback on the hand as a whole. I’d love to hear any advice anyone might have about the process they go through in situations like this. Also, advice on how to keep the adrenaline dump from fogging up the train of thought. Thanks
Read Skylansky's book the theory of poker. The situation you're in completely simplifies things. In a lot of poker situations you have unknowns you basically trying to put together what is profitable based on what limited information you have. A lot of time poker is like doing 2 + x = y. In this case, you know that you're adding 2 plus 3 so the answer is 5.

You have at most 9 cards that make your flush assuming none were folded. You have 4 cards to make a straight. That said, one of those spades gives him quads. The board can also pair. You need to look at what was in the pot, how much it is to call and what your odds are of winning. You l iterally could have taken out fyour phone and calculated.

The money in the pot is dead money. It doesn't matter, but counts in the value.

Your Net Expected Value is

Losing 65.25% - $-445
Winning 34.75% $387..46

or -$57.54

Was it a bad call? Yes. Was it a horrible call? Not overly. Was he UTG dumb here for opening 44 UTG? Yes. It's poker though.

Your real issue here is that you have need to learn a lot of the basic things.
Facing all in on Flop, opponent shows cards Quote
12-07-2023 , 07:53 PM
As I indicated, if it was 450 total and he needed to call 375 with 25 equity in the high hand promotion, it even maybe slightly $ev+. You can't ignore 1 out twice to 600 extra.
Facing all in on Flop, opponent shows cards Quote
12-07-2023 , 09:38 PM
Welcome to the forum, OP. In the future, please don't include results, as they bias people's advice. Just get up to your big decision point and then ask what people would do and why. This is usually written in the shorthand of "Hero: ?"

009285832 gave you the out-counting way to do this, which is often the best you can do at the table. Away from the table, you can use an equity calculator that considers all of the things like how often you improve, but V hits a full-house to improve even more. Since we know the exact hands, we can do the calculation pretty easily. Those are the numbers you see in 009...'s post above. It is calculated with all three possible versions of 44 V could have, because you didn't tell us if he has a spade or not, which would change your odds notably.

His math has some shortcuts in it, so I'll spell out the steps (and come to a slightly different answer. I haven't taken the time to look at his math to figure out why)

So if you call, you are risking another $445, which you will lose 65.25 percent of the time, for an average loss of losing $290.36. When you win (34.75% of the time), you win win $1100ish, minus the price of your call, or $655, which comes out to an average win of $227.61. That means that on average, every time you make this call, it is a $62.75 mistake, so it's a pretty clear fold. But wait, you also have to consider the promo.

1 out twice (it could come on the turn or the river) is a 4% chance for "at the table estimating (look up the rule of 2 and 4), but technically a 4.3% chance for off the table calculations. That means you "expected value" from the promo is $25.80. Of course you'll never win that amount. You'll either win nothing or all of it, but since that will happen 4.3% of the time, "your share" of the promo is $25.80.

That makes it a bit closer, but at an average loss of $36.95, it's still a pretty clear fold.
Facing all in on Flop, opponent shows cards Quote

      
m