Typical 1/3 live no fold em Hold Em game.

Hero is a nit but trying not to be and has $220 UTG and limps with 66 with the intention of calling a standard open of $12-$15

Villain #1 $150ish raises to $15

Villain #2 OTB with $500+ calls the $15

Hero calls the $12


Flop of 6 7 10r

Hero checks his set of 6's

Villain 1 bets out $40

Villain 2 raises to $140

Hero feels like V2 would have re-raised with a premium pair of JJ or better pre-flop so this is not likely an overpair, 89 is a possibility from either player but hero has chances to fill up and with no other draws out there hero feels like V2 has to have a made hand here.

Can I correctly fold bottom set here?

you give no read on either V

V2 could just be trying to ISO V1

This could easily be v2 saying "v1's overcards missed and I'm raising him out with a ten, and pensfan you can fold your draw."

The large size of the bet -- nearly 2x pot -- is usually not meant to be called.

Possible lines are raising (which is a shove here) and calling and letting him put you all-in on turn.

v1 does not have odds to draw, so I think trapping is fine.

Overbetting is common, having a set is the time to punish it.

Once in a while they'll have a set or outdraw you.

No. I think Action Dan Harrington once said never ever fold a set on the flop in tournaments and I think that's generally true in cash too, and certainly with 73bb. Just shove. You're getting called, but all the money is going in regardless.

V1 is typical low limit NL live player, doesn't like to fold any draw and plays way too many hands preflop. He could literally have any two cards here.

V2 is a solid player who isn't normally raising his draws. At least a semi reg who I have played with before. I am nearly 100% that he would re-raise pre with JJ, QQ, KK and AA. He's not of the mindset to slow play these. I might even put TT in that category.

His re-raise on the flop screams big hand to me and it's not likely he has many two pair combo's here (maybe 67, maybe).

I tend to agree with this and figure I'm sitting there waiting to flop a set and get the money in, why rethink it at this point. The number of times you fold and are right probably don't pay for the times you drag a huge pot when you call it off.

A player like me is playing to make sets and get the money in so it's hard to fold here, but I feel like the board texture was one I could rethink this issue.

I think you just GII here. He could have 76s, or 109s / 87s that has a gutter and maybe back door flush draw equity. Or just nothing as earlier posters have suggested trying to iso V1 who he thinks is over c-betting.


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given your read I sigh fold

Given those reads I could find a fold with bottom set but it depends on a live read.

The general rule is that you can't fold middle or top set even if you think your opponents range is nothing but flopped straights/flushes and sets because you can draws out on the straights/flushes and you are 50/50 with sets. If you allow any over pairs, draws, two pairs, etc this becomes trivial.

Bottom set you can sometimes get away from because you are now beaten by all other sets. If you can pin villain's range at flopped straights and sets you are now crushed too often. But you don't have to put too many draws, two pair, over pairs, and so on before you are priced in.

Your reads are never as good as you think they are, unless you played more than 10 sessions with the villain.

You're 73BB deep with a set so just GII, say nice hand if you lose and move on.

Insta shove and be happy!

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Why are you so confident in your read that he has a big hand here? Have you played with this guy for 10+ sessions and talk to him about hands after? Do you know his thought process and how much he likes to gamble? How often have you seen his cards at showdown?

It sounds more like to me that you have MUBs than a real, ACTUAL read. Shove here. If you are folding because you have a bad feeling about the hand, you are lighting EV on fire. I'd even consider a call here since he may continue with bluffs and think he can get you off a QT/KT type hand.

If I'm laying down a set on the flop it will take more than a "read"

Thanks all for the replies.

Ultimately I think I have to shove here and not overthink the situation. Like I said earlier, someone like me comes to flop a big hand and get the chips in so I'm not sure at the 1/3 level there is much more to think about than that.


For those interested in the actual result:

Grunch: no

Fold pre. You are not deep enough to be calling $15 raises to set mine, especially not with people who put in 10% of their stacks. The alternative is to set your own price by raising $10 instead.

AP it's a fistpump shove. You have a set in a raised pot and 70bb behind. Ship and be happy.

There's nothing wrong with being a nit and it is undoubtedly a winning strategy at these lower levels.

I fold 66- in EP nowadays. At one time I didn't because the tables were more passive (nowadays very little chance of seeing a cheap flop) and also far more payoffy (it's a lot more difficult getting paid off nowadays, especially OOP). I also fold to the reraise; we're only going 3ways and we're only getting ~10:1 against the raiser overall. It's very unlikely your preflop play is profitable unless you are at a very good table, imo.

SPR is 4.5, which means we could get stacks in just 2 streets with big bets. There are 8 cards that will kill our action, so there is decent reason to attempt this. Otherwise we could just bet small and risk 3 streets of betting, or even just check (if flop checks thru we can still play for stacks with big bets on later streets). I'd probably lean to a 2/3 PSB probing type bet, but whatever.

I don't think I would fold here. V2 could easily have a flatting overpair monster that he didn't want to scare V1 away with. Board isn't amazingly drawy so even monsters might just flat the flop bet to entice us in. I flat to hopefully bring V1 along and then ship the turn. This is one of the reasons I don't play 66- in EP anymore though (far better chance of it appearing on the bad side of a cooler than the good side).

GcluelessNLnoobG

No. You have 70 blinds...it would NEVER be correct to fold bottom set under any circumstances on this board with that stack.

Good.