Playing at my first home game in a while. I get the impression that it's a pretty loose passive table, but I don't really have reads on anyone yet because it's been less than an hour since I've been at the table. Also, it's been a long time since I've posted a hand history... so please bear with me.

Playing nine-handed 1/2 NL, three people before me limp in and I wake up with AQo in late position. I pop it to $15. Button calls, folds around to a guy in middle position who calls.

Flop comes J 8 3 rainbow. MP checks. I c-bet $30 into a ~$50 pot. Button calls, MP calls.

Turn comes 6. MP checks. I check. Button checks.

River comes A. MP checks. I check (?). Button shoves ~$230 into a $150ish pot. MP instafolds. I hem and haw for a bit but I don't have a good read on this guy. The board is a rainbow, there's no possibility of a flush or a straight.

In hindsight, button doesn't shove there with a set... he would try to value bet and get a call from one or both of us, right? But he could have two pair with an A3/A6/A8 type of hand.

I think about what I'm beating and what he could have and I end up mucking my hand.

My question to those who are much better at this than I am... did I botch the turn and river play there? Is a ~$50 river bet with two people behind me good enough that if button was bluffing, he folds and I take the pot there? At the very least, if I bet $50 and he comes over the top with his $230 all-in, I know I'm probably not good with top pair, right?

Thanks in advance for any and all feedback... even the ones that tell me how much of a donk I am.

I'd find a call there pretty quickly. I think you're over estimating the possibility of A8/A6/A3. You can discount those for the same reason you can discount sets. If he held one of those hands, he would make a more value-ish play on the river. Two pair is a monster on this board, and even a fish can remove AJ from the hero's range.

From the villain's perspective, he just saw two guys check two streets into him, and the ultimate scare card hit the river. Easy bluff with T9.

I think he is showing up with J-8 and AJ here a lot. On the run out J-8 has no real reason to protect his hand with aggressive lines. Some cards make straights on turn or river but majority of deck is not a scare card for his hand. I think I cut my losses here and fold. You're either way ahead or way behind of shoves like this but most of time I would say way behind. Fold

Bet/Fold river.

As played fold river.

I think you made the right fold In my opinion. He most likely had two pair in my opinion.

I would discount J8 because most people would bet in position after being checked to on the turn with J8. Why would 2 pair check back against 2 players on such a dry board?

The line that makes the most sense to me is AJ. Most villains will show up with AJ in this spot in my opinion. Sets would bet the turn.

The only bluff you beat is 9 10, and most unknowns will not bluff shove river.

Bet/fold river seems good to me. As played, fold.

With regards to the bolded: You do realize that a person would bet a made hand for a litany of other reasons besides "protection".

Any hand that has any value pre-flop or on the flop, would have done something to try and get value. Blowing your opponents out of the pot is not a value-play.

Giving an unknown credit for being this tricky with 2-pair plus is fancy-play-syndrome at its worst.

He's bluffing. Call.

Which do you see more often from unknowns?

A) Bluff shoving with busted draws and middle pairs
B) Massive overbet shoves for value with 2 pair+

Maybe you play in a fishier pond than I do, but in my experience people try to get value for their good hands.

Is this a trick question? lol

I see B more than A honestly. I'm not discounting A, but against MOST unknowns I would lean towards folding than calling.

Hero says he's been at the table less than an hour, surely you have seen a couple hands Villain has played?

Yeah, he seems fairly loose/passive like most of the rest of the table. But not showing down a ton, so I'm not sure if he's catching cards or just being an action junkie.

This sounds contradictory. If he's loose/passive and not showing down a ton, then he must be folding a lot. If that's the case, you made a significant error by not betting the turn. Big mistake.

You mention him "catching cards". That must mean he's winning. And if he's winning by not showing down, then he must be betting and getting other people to fold.

If he's betting and getting other people to fold then that means either A) He bets when he has a good hand or B) he bets when he believes other people do not have a good hand. Either scenario strongly suggests that a big overbet shove on a scare card, after being checked to twice, is a bluff.

Let me clarify. In that hour, I had seen him playing a lot of pots and almost never raising preflop. He hadn't had a lot of showdowns since I had sat down at the table. He wasn't bullying anyone from what I could tell.

yes, i agree. up until river played good. And for advocates of villan not doing this with two pair+, what hands besides total air(BSD) is he doing this with? i just cant imagine hes doing it with 1 pair.

i mean, villans hand here is polarised right? if thats the case, i see V shoving with 2 pair+ more than i do air even if checked through turn and river.

if we can assume villan is in fact polarised, meaning either 2 pair+ or air, the only "air" hand i see is 10 9. there are 16 combinations of 10 9. combinatorically i see a lot more 2 pair hands in his range. makes me wonder though if there are any more air hands in his range. i mean, OTF what does he flat the 30$ then x turn with?

An 8, probably one with additional backdoor draws like T8, 98 suited. QT and Q9 aren't out of the realm of possibility here.

We know villain seems to be "catching cards". To me, that means he's winning. We also know he's doing it without showing down hands. To me that means that there is some intelligent line of thinking behind his betting. He bets good hands for value, bets bad hands as a bluff, or both. He's had multiple opportunities to make a sensible, predictable, and expected value play with AJ, J8, and sets, and didnt', so I'm inclined to severely discount those possibilities, if not throw them out altogether.

It's possible he snuck into two pair with A3, or A8, but again, in the last hour this villain has shown that he knows how to bet for value. The action given suggests that this not a value bet. Furthermore, by not showing down hands, the villain has proven that he can sense weakness, and bet accordingly. In this case, he's been shown weakness, vividly. The board is dry enough to encourage hero-calls, so his bet was appropriately large.

I'm calling here, and I can't believe that any intelligent poker analysis results in any other decision. I'm paying off A8 and A3 sometimes, and that's ok.

If all of your hero calls are correct, then you aren't hero-calling enough.

I would probably bet fold the river small.

AP, I fold. People in live 1/2 games are generally not going to put $230 in as a bluff. If you had a read that he was aggressive I might consider calling.

I think you played the turn and river correctly.

I think things go off the rails on the flop. Rarely a good idea to c-bet air, out-of-position, into multiple people.

If the Villain does have AJ/J8, let him bet the flop and take it down. He got lucky and you have air.

"generally" and words alike are overused words on this forum. when doing an analysis i always try to get a feel for what each villan is like. each villan is a specific player with specific tendencies. while it is true for a lot of hands people post there is not enough info to properly view villan but it doesnt mean we should generalize players. Another thing, while i disagree with some of the overall lines other players may think is "optimal" there is great value in discussion and also some great points within. it always helps to keep an open mind while doing anaylsis, so we can keep an open mind at the table

into 2 loose passive people? the board is to dry here. not c-betting is a mistake imo.

8's with bds are decent but i think qx hands shouldnt be calling 30$ with these stack sizes not enough implied odds to draw to a gutter imo. also if v calls a bet on the flop with a gutter draw, he can expect usually to be faced with another bet on the turn.

Them being loose makes me less likely to c-bet.

Them being passive makes me less likely to c-bet.

Them being loose and passive makes me much less likely to c-bet.

One of them being in position, with both of them being loose and passive makes me much much less likely to c-bet.

Knowing they're tight enough to fold anything less than a strong jack makes me want to c-bet. Knowing that the first Villain is aggressive enough to bet his pairs, makes me less likely to c-bet. Knowing the Villain's are passive makes it much more likely I'll get to river a pair without putting any more in the pot.

So what should we do when we have zero reads and no physical description of a random faceless villan? What I do is replay the hand in my mind and see if it makes sense. The only value hands in this guys shoving ranges are A3 and A8. Once he checks the turn eliminating most value hands like sets and 2 pair seems reasonable as your average player would know to bet.

As played I am actually calling this river. When someone's line doesn't make sense I hero a lot more often then when it does make senses. We can make different assessments once we see villan show down some crazy hand.

I'm expecting to see a lot of random busted draws combos or the very few 2 pair combos.

Well he'd have an overcard to go with his gutter draw. There are also a number of ways for villain to have a BD flush draw. Plus he may think there is a way to push us off the hand later. So far all we did was raise PF and C-bet, nothing we've done indicates significant strength. He has position, and he's the type of player who "seems to be catching cards but hasn't had to show them down"

Nothing factual points to a 2 pair+ hand. Nothing.

After people check to him on 2 streets, he knows there's no way anyone calls this shove...which makes me believe AQ is usually good here.