1/3 NLHE 8 handed.

V - only competent player at the table. A beginnerish TAG. He's probably 0-3BB/hr player. He tilts sometimes but early in his sessions plays well. This session he's trapped IP twice with thick value and been paid off once. He's overly face up and gives off a lot of physical tells. Covers. MP.

HH - V straddles BTN, SB BB fold, UTG straightforward loose passive opens 25, folds back to V who asks to see UTGs stack then calls. Flop 7-5-4r. UTG passive bets, V raises, UTG calls. Turn 3 w/ FD. UTG checks, V AI, UTG calls showing TT, V shows 66.

H - Not sure how V sees me but I know he knows I'm capable. 900$ SB.

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UTG straddles 6, V limps, folds to H who goes 25 with A 3, BB folds, UTG folds, V calls. HU OOP.

Flop 50 - T 4 2

Check, check

Turn 50 - 9

Check, V bets 25, Hero x/r to 100, V calls

River 250 - 6

Hero?

I would limp behind preflop. Fold the turn. Your draw is very weak, and it isn't a good idea to bluff raise much in this stakes without a good reason. As played, I would make it 150 on the river.

What is your value x/r range on turn? Why would you not bet all of it?


So weird for V to check behind flop and then bet this turn for half pot, I'd assume he has a monster or a decent draw when he calls.
But if he just doesn't believe you with QT then I'm not sure any normal river bet is going to change his mind (probably for 500, but you are running into the trap at that point).


I'd be tempted to bet 75 on the river just to get the slightly better A high draws to fold, and lose less to 87s.
Does he fold some Tx for more, eh maybe.

This hand is so far off the rails after your decision not to C-bet an automatic small C-bet board, and then to check-raise the Turn, I honestly have no idea how to evaluate your perspective ranges once we get to the River this way.

I guess check-decide, but mostly pray he just checks back and you beat QJ?

Agree.

You can discount really strong hands from his range based on how the hand was played, as he would likely bet the flop or re-raise you on the turn with them. However, he can still have a lot of T hands, which is a problem.

The 6 is not the best card for you. You'd prefer a J, Q, K, or even an 8—something really scary for Tx hands. In this situation, you could bet $250 or so and hope for the best. Maybe even consider overbetting $500.

But next time, just limp pre or bet the flop.

Would have preferred to limp pre, though raising a suited wheel ace from the SB doesn't seem terrible.

Would have preferred a c-bet or check raise on flop, when we have some decent backdoor equity that can call a raise if we c-bet but not so much that we mind folding to a 3B if we x/r.

I'd like the turn x/r better if we had ace-wheel of hearts. With AXdd, the 5h is not a clean out, and it may be hard to get away if the river is the Ah.

I think if we want this turn x/r to work it has to be bigger, like $125. And if he calls, we just give up and check-fold. As played, I think it's just a check fold now.

Think about what you're repping for value with this line. It's basically 99 exactly, or a turned combo draw with a hand like QJhh for bluffs. If V has a 9 in his hand, especially if he has 99 or T9, he's not going to believe you have a 9. Plus you'll get action from his good draws like 87hh.

You can bluff the river if you go polar, but it's a bit spewy if this guy gets sticky with TP+. We'd basically just be trying to fold out better AXhh that missed the flush.

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Yeah, preflop better to complete and see the flop cheap with a speculative hand rather than building the pot OOP. The Txx flop with a weak draw is perfect to cbet.

Preflop you can probably do anything - with the straddle on I probably just fold most of the time tbh.

I'm definitely cbetting this flop with lots of turn barrel cards, nut potential, and to drive out better Ax immediately.

As played, I dunno, you took the extreme variance route, can check-fold and get bluffed by the only hand you're ahead of (QJ) or bluff for a small sizing and hope to get through against a Ten sometimes

I would just call pre, the hand (esp the c/r ott) seems like button pressing especially with the best player at the table limping a straddle in MP.

V is the only competent opponent, yet we choose to volunteer and play the hand OOP vs them and bloat the pot (the PFR is way too small IMO to induce folds.)

The c/r on the Turn is a head scratcher. What part of our range gets here after PFR, check on the flop, and is a c/r OTT when the board has deteriorated for us and improved for V?

Something else to keep in mind is that the effective stack is 300bb. Whether or not our opponents understand the implications of being this deep doesn't matter. We are still subject to the dynamics of playing deep stacked. The Frank Reynolds "So anyway, I started blasting." tactic c/r the turn is not the highest ev route to put it mildly...

Sometimes the most aggressive approach is not the best one. That is true of preflop and turn here.

Not sure what you guys are talking about in terms of c-bet. T-rag-rag is basically a pure check OOP with occaisional thick sizing repping AA-JJ imo. A-high can happily check to peel one and is often the best hand here at showdown.

OTT my thoughts were:

1. He could be stabbing with air when checked to twice (people often do that at my game when checked to twice), ergo A-high could still be the best hand and I'm bluffing with the best hand.

2. In terms of combos I unblock QJ and 78, this guy never limp calls TT, 99 pre, so his only premiums are 44 and 22 and T9s (8 combos).

3. When he bets the 9 OTT what value does he have that can continue? What does A9 do to a x/r? Feels like so much of his range has to fold.

4. I have my gutshot hope upon hope draw and sometimes an A will be good too.

Results:

I was actually thinking in hindsight I maybe should overbet polarize on the river. Like bet 350.

500 or more, maybe, but I doubt even 350 gets it done when he calls turn. Also while you block 53s which might want to bet 500 it's difficult to believe you have it enough.


Also I agree flop is a check, but for the same reasons turn isn't a raise with this hand.

He would probably fold to an OB otr but that's just hindsight (although seeing how he called ott he might still find a call otr too). When he called a c/r ott I would assume he's not likely folding to any reasonable bets on a blank river.

Generally speaking, any flop that is 9-high and otherwise fairly disconnected is going to be good to attack, because top pair is likely to change and there are few if any big draws available. I would say this flop isn't very different.

When V limp-calls pre, he's not going to have many strong hands on this board, whereas we have an uncapped range as the PFR, and can rep all the over-pairs, as well as top set. The strongest hands in his range are going to be bottom/middle set or bottom 2 pair. So, yes, to your point, we can rep all the over-pairs, TPTK, and sets here, when he really can't.

If we c-bet this flop, we're continuing to tell the story that we have a strong hand, at least TPTK, that can target all of V's worse 1P hands for value. When we check the flop, that story starts to fall apart.

If we were checking flop to check-raise, or slow-playing top set, we'd likely just make a delayed c-bet on the turn, after the flop checks through. We wouldn't suddenly check-raise, unless we got there with exactly 99, that was too scared to c-bet this flop, for some strange reason.

When we check turn and V bets this board, he's saying he has some value that wasn't strong enough to bet the flop. That might be some top pair combo that didn't want to get trapped and face a x/r, but could often be some 9x holding, reducing your combos of 99 down to exactly 1.

The draws that V might have and that you un-block here are way less important than the value V might have that you also un-block. His value is Tx and 9x, which you do not block. In fact, his Tx and 9x combos will often have a J or 8 in them, making him less concerned about you out-drawing him with a hand like QJ or 87.

He could be stabbing with air, yes, but he could also check back and take his equity with his draws (QJ / 87), and some of his unpaired over-cards. He could also just be betting his hand for value and protection, putting you on air when you check to him twice.

You could be bluffing with the best hand, but if you weren't ready to bluff with might have been the best hand on the flop, why are you suddenly blasting off with it now, when you checked to him twice, and he bets? What over-pairs take this line, when V might have T9, and we really don't have much T9 in our range when we raise from the SB pre and then check this flop? It makes no sense.

The hands he can continue with is going to somewhat depend on stack depth. There's $175 in the pot when you x/r, he has to call off another $75, you started $900 deep, and he has you covered. So he's getting almost 13:1 implied odds to stack you if he continues. I'd be continuing with a $hlt-ton of hands, including the ones you think he should be folding out, like QJ and 87.

In his spot, if I smell BS (and I totally would when you take this line here, if I have 9x), I'd call too. So, the answer to the question, what value can he continue with, is literally every 9x holding, especially if his kicker removes some of the outs for your possible draws, and he thinks you might be off on some adventure, bluffing into value.

V's specific combo of J9cc is good to continue, because he wants you to be x/r'ing as a bluff when you pick up some equity with a combo draw on the turn. You could have a lot of XXhh that connected with the T in some way, and now picked up the backdoor straight draw and backdoor flush draw.

No offense, but it seems like you've under-estimated your opponent's abilities here, by a wide margin, if you're expecting him to fold all his good draws and any value when you take this dubious line.

yeah i mean the issue is people don't think you can do this with one pair (you should its a very good line vs bad people who will bet way too many weak hands / draws ott)

lol at using solvers in a live game spot like this. PF is ok, just bet the flop. jeez.

Hero bets $125 OTR.