1/2
Background:
Hero is 21 wearing neon yellow sweatshirt sitting in the 8 seat with 600 in chips. Fairly active, only showing down pretty strong hands, but raising more than anyone else, probably around 17/15. due to presence of deepstacks behind and short stacks in front.

Recent hands included a hand where 4 seat (170) limp, i raise to 15 in HJ, heads up to flop QT9hh hand where I cbet, turn went ck/ck on a blank, and river was K. Vil lead for 40 into about 75. I thought for a while then raised 110 on top and he called. He showed QTo i showed ATo. Announced that I shouldve just went all in to the table.

Another hand against 2 Seat, I open KK to 15 over some limps, Seat 2(400) calls in SB and we see flop HU. Flop comes 689hhd. I hold K diamond. He checks, I check back for a couple reasons. First its easy to get bluff raised this deep. Second, If he has some sort of draw, its not folding and there are a million scare cards that he can represent. We would probably have known about him having JJ+ and got more in pre. Villain is in the top10% of 1/2 players competency wise. Turn Adiamonds. Villain leads for 25. I raise to 55. He reraises to 90 and I fold. Folding is too weak, Calling is too weak, That only leaves raising.

OTTH:
Hero Seat 8 (800) MP
Seat 2 (500)
Seat 1 (450)

Open to 10 with JTss
Seat 1 calls
Seat 2 3bets to 30

Folds back to me, I think for 20secs, then call since we're deep.
Seat 2 calls.

Seat 1 is a 50s reg who is pretty loose, type of player to over value TP and only plays out hands street by street instead of comprehensive planning. We're not worried about him.

87 (rake icluded)
Flop comes KQ5r with Ks. I check, seat 1 checks, Seat 2 bets 40. I call, Seat 1 folds.
167
Turn is offsuit 9. (giving us straight)

Villain has 430 left behind. We cover. 167 in the pot.

Here's where I'd like to discuss our options. What I did can come later.
Range analysis:
AQ- At the worst (maybe has this <5% of the time IMO)
AK- The most likely combination wise holding at this juncture.
AA-More likely than sets, probably would have bet larger on flop though.
KK/QQ- Combo wise unlikely.
KQ-Sometimes he has this, typically only suited get3bet so since the K and Q are offsuit there are less combos he could have.
JJ/TT-we have 1 of each so the combos are unlikely. We won't get any value from these regardless.
Air-Unlikely.

What is the most +EV or GTO play from this point in the hand against this range?

I don't think we're deep enough to call pre here. I would fold to his 3bet.

As played flop is fine. Turn depends on villains action ahead of you. Given your bet/fold history with villain from previously I'm betting around $110 if he checks. If he calls that will leave him with less than a pot sized bet otr and we can probably get stacks in.

If he leads again I'm raising about 2/3 pot. He should be calling with TPTK+ on this board.

@ pexw
we're in early position and have to act before him.

Preflop is thin but your deep enough it isn't bad. OOP $500 is the minimum villain should have before you call. Flop is obvious check/call with the OESD on a flop that villain is going to c-bet nearly every time. It hits villain hard and you don't want raised off your draw, so betting or raising youself would be bad.

Against the range you give lead turn for $125 and hope to get raised. Sometimes check/raise turn, how often depends on villain but should be the less likely line unless villain is very aggressive. You need to lead this more then check because villain will check behind all but his strongest hands a lot. His AK/AA hands are not going to want to risk getting raised on this board. You will be pushing a lot of weak hands out, but the highest EV line is going to be targeting his KQ+. They make up only a small part of his range but those are the only hands that might stack off and you have another $430 to get into the pot. His AK/AA hands are not likely going to fold too your first aggression and weaker hands are not likely to put more in no matter what.

The turn bet size here is tricky. If you just go $100 then villain will have close to a pot sized stack left and may be able to get away from your shove. You want to get more then $100 in now but making a pot sized bet probably get villain to fold everything but sets. Something around $125 looks best, leaving villain with about 3/4 of pot sized stack.

Wich makes it a clear fold pf. IP, i call it as long as i have no reason to believe his 3bet range is JJ+

I actually lead this flop everytime representing a made hand.

As played, i cc. If you get some kind of read that he is never folding, just shove over his bet.

If he bets small, i probably raise small to keep him in the hand.

I think the pf call is close odds wise...more player dependent.

I actually like a weak lead on turn here to make it look like a blocker and hope to get raised. Anything more will fold most of villain's one pair range and if he has 2p+ we will get it all in anyway. Don't like c/c because then we might only get a smallish bet on the river if anything.

Pre is whatever. I can see both ways being fine. I like a lead on the turn. I'd hate to see it check through. It's a scare card, so he might think you are bluffing. Highly doubt he folds two pair or a set, and he's not betting with less. Probably bet around $100. It would be nice to bet it so stacks are auto in on river, but I don't want to lose him, and it'd be great if he raised.

I don't think it's possible to be deep enough. The deeper you are the worse playing out of position is. If Hero was in position the hand is not hard. Call, or bet if checked to.

Nobody knows exactly what GTO play looks like. Go play against one of the BOTs or look at the BOT competitions, you'll find they highly value playing in position. They're almost never playing without initiative, out of position, unless they're in the big blind.

Sorry lost track there.

As mentioned by someone else, being OOP makes this a definite fold preflop. I wouldn't open in MP with this, and definitely wouldn't be calling a 3! OOP unless we're more like 350bbs deep. You're basically hoping to flop a draw and you're going to be calling off a large portion of your stack in a bloated pot to see a turn card.

Now the 9 brings in an obvious straight on an otherwise dry board. Is V gonna get his whole stack in with TPTK when you're repping two pair+ with no draws on the board?

As played, I'm leading out here for $100 so that TPTK can't pot control by checking behind and two pair+ can raise. If called pot will be $370ish otr and you can bet 2/3 pot to induce a sighing shove from the villain.

I think I like a smaller bet on the turn, to induce. He bet $40 on the flop, I'm donking $80 here. With the image you've established, I think he'll raise you for value/protection with almost his entire range.

If he only calls the $80, that's going to make it harder to get stacks in on the river. But most of his stackoff range will raise this chicken****-looking bet for us.

How is leading turn not letting villain easily get away from TPTK hands that although may very likely check back turn are much more likely to call a river lead from us after the turn goes c/c.

There are just 0 hands that we can rep that call flop and lead turn as a bluff, as the board is rainbow and the only draw (JT) just got there... so when we lead ~$100 into 167 on the turn our hand looks like exactly what it is, better than two pair and I feel like our range is exactly: KQ, 55, JT, or QQ

And if Villain has a hand good enough to call our turn bet: KQ, QQ, KK; wouldn't he bet turn himself if checked too, and we could c/c and then try and get max value on the river. Even someone with AK/AA may make a mistake and bet the turn when checked too.

I would c/c turn and possibly lead big on river or c/shove if we think he is going to fire three streets after the turn action. Especially since we have the portion of his range that checks back turn drawing dead and there are no bad river cards for us.

I don't like the open to $10 - i'd probably just limp along or go $7. You have a good player at the table who is 3betting you - no reason to bloat the pot OOP.

Calling the 3bet is fine when you are deep. You have a good hand that should not get you into too much trouble.

Flop is fine.

Turn - best play is to donk out $75 - $100. He might raise - he might call - and I highly doubt he folds. AA - QQ is never folding. Ak is never folding. TT / JJ and air won't bet and you charge your own price.

You already showed you are capable of bluffing. Don't check

I range V at ATss+, KJ, KQ, QQ-AA - I include trashy broadways as you say he's a good player, so I presume he'd take initiative with a hand like KJ.

So this flop smashes his range. Some have mentioned that we could check/call or check/raise as he's going to stack off with 2 pair + anyway - not necessarily.

We have a bluffy image, his range looks strong, so let's go and target the top of that range. I think if he calls 100, he'll 125, so let's go ahead and bet 125. I think it looks like a bluff, and he wouldn't expect us to bet big with a nutted hand. I expect a lot of V's to level themselves into a call here. If 2 pairs/sets think they're ahead they will ship it, and if not, they will call most of the time hoping to a) peel and b) that you'll check river.

This also sets up stacks to go in beautifully on the river - pot would be 417, and V would have 305 behind (whereas if we bet 100 it's pretty much a PSB on the river).

And then...?