Villain (covers) - Mid 30s. Wearing a Hurley's hat and shirt, with hat slightly to side. Though he's raising pre-flop more than others, I think his outwardly Laggish image gives a slightly false impression. What I gather is that he is somewhat loose pre-flop but a little more straightforward post-flop. Shuffles chips well. In town for WSOP series. Has been stacked once already when he had a solid hand and was sucked out on (iirc).

Hero (1400) - Mid 30s. Athletic pullover and hat. Physical manifestations and bet-sizing of a player who understands game. Opens less than rest of table. Prefers opening/raising to limping/calling. Has 3bet light and shown. Earlier hand I opened with AQo from ep, bet heads-up on a Axx board, c/c turn, and c/r river (non-scary board) against villain I thought would fold on turn against two barrels. Was confident that he had an underpair or weaker ace; was correct.

Onto the hand...


Straddle. Villain opens in ep for 35. I call with 44 and there are two callers behind.


Flop (140) - KK5dd

Checks around. This surprised me, as I thought Villain would fire most of his range into that board.

Turn (140) - 4x

Villain quickly bets 100. I take a minute and call, thinking that calling keeps my range much wider than raising and that my position affords me many river options in terms of bet-sizing if a non-scare card hits.

River (340) - Ax

Villain checks. I take another minute. I don't like that card, but I figure that Villain is sometimes check/calling with QQ/JJ/TT and almost always with aces that he's opening with pre-flop in early position. I bet 220. Villain tanks, takes out calling chips, and quietly announces 700.

Hero?


Questions:

1. Against my perceived range, what may Villain be perceiving as his value range?

2. How often does Villain turn Ax (non-K) and QQ/JJ/TT into a bluff?

3. How much is a diamond draw in my range?

4. Does Hero ever raise here?

5. Am I ever good facing a river c/r on that board?

I don't see him doing this with anything other than ak.

Aces seem more likely than AK here.

I don't see diamonds as completely out of your perceived range. Since you flatted the raise pre and checked the KK5 flop, holding the Ax with the Ad is not unrealistic. Calling the turn (not hugely likely now you have only a nfd, although you still had 2 yet to act), and I'm assuming the other 2 callers get out of the way.

If villian is capable of raising EP with KJs or KQs I don't see this as completely out of line for a check-raise based on the possibility of you stabbing a missed flush draw that binked a river ace, especially considering you both checked the flop here.

His flop check could of been a check-raise attempt, and he is now trying to make up for missed bets on the river.

Often he has the goods here, but I don't think that KJ or KQ is out of line; if he is capable of the pre-flop raise that is.

All of these hands will check/call river not check-raise. No competent player is check raising river with these hands.

Initially I'd say fold as I can't see villain bluffraising here..EXCEPT he might think it's for value:

Your flop check on a FD board and IN POSITION pretty much confirms you can't have a AK...therefore he may think KQ/KJ is the nuts.

So villain's raise may be perceived by him as for value given the line you took, coupled with the fact that most of the time villains will lead river with strong FH (as you check back alot of rivers) or bet little to induce etc.

i think we can make a case for a crying call

Villian is mid-30 wearing a matching hat and shirt, only one of which is sideways and we are thinking about folring a Full house???????

"I had alot of coolers that are really cutting into my +EV"

I agree with this. First of all, $35 on a straddle is kind of weak with AK, especially if he's raising a lot PF.

Villain probably tanked because he couldn't put YOU on AK, so he felt that he had to value raise this spot with KQ or possibly KJ. I don't think I'd ever fold this spot, especially since villain played it so strangely.

Let's not forget 55 btw... I think that makes even more sense than AK, personally.

I think it's a fold. Painful experience has taught me that on paired boards hand values go way down. I think he just calls KQ most of the time. If he is levelling and this is a bluff - good for him, he is going to out play me. I think this is AA/AK/KK/55 the vast majority of the time. That's 13 combos. Give it up but try to get to see his hand.

I like how you played every street assuming you folded the river, NH.

Very funny and frighteningly keen.

My recent (and ongoing) battle against variance did not weigh on my decision, though. Not an ounce.

Sorry I don't understand this at all. You set up a turn/river CR bluff with what you were sure was the best hand why exactly? I understand turning a medium strength hand into a bluff, but that's a little bit of a bizarre spot if you bet everything.
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For the hand

First of all raise the turn. If he has QQ or something he's not going to put much more $$ in the pot. You have a concealed monster and you should be trying to get value from a slowplayed king, which will absolutely pay you off. IMO you're missing huge value.

Why do you need bet sizing flexibility on the river? Are you planning on turning the underfull into a bluff? I really hope not.

1) Ax should not be in his value range. His value range could be 55, good kings, AK obviously, quad kings. He doesn't have a big value range. AQ as a check raise should be turning a medium strength hand into a bluff. CR AQ on the river for value makes no sense.

2) Shouldn't be very often. I guess you could have Adxd but I think with Ax he should call. QQ-TT I guess he could bluff raise, but what does he think folds? He's going to fold your weak aces? He should expect you to never fold a king here, so I think he mostly c/c those hands.

I dunno, unless you have some crazy reads I think it's unlikely he's turning TT-QQ or Ax into a bluff.

3) I guess it is, although you'd often bet that on the flop. It's sort of irrelevant because any of this value hands BEATS A DIAMOND DRAW. So if he has QQ and he puts you on diamonds (unless it's Adxd) he doesn't need to raise. If he has like JTs I guess he could try to CR you off of a draw, but in that case why not just bet because a lot of players just check back aces, pp's etc and he loses.

4) Do you think he stacks KQ here? I wouldn't raise back because you fold all his bluffs, he never folds a full house, and I don't think he does this with a hand like KJ because what worse hands are you calling with?

5) It's such a weird line that it looks kinda like AA or maybe slowplayed 55 here. So I really wonder if you're good just because of the reasons I listed. It makes no sense for him to CR good aces or medium pp's here.

So it really looks like AA, AK, KK, or MAYBE 55 but 55 might not even take this line.

You're getting like 2.6-1 so you only have to bet good 27% of the time. Vs an aggro villain (if he's really aggro) I guess I call here and say "You just hit aces full?" and expect to hear "you're good" or "yeah, I have AA."

It would have been an easy fold if it was a c/r AI, but can't fold this getting almost 3:1 although I'd be surprised if villain doesn't turn over KK.

On the flop, You could take a stab at the pot. A small bet can steal the pot.

You'd be surprised if he didn't turn over flopped quads???

Is there a question or comment here, or you just like turning someone's comment into a question and post it?

I guess i'm just having trouble reconciling that if hero bets the flop, once checked too, he probably wins the pot; but as played you'd be surprised if villain shows up with anything but flopped quads, which would make hero a pretty large underdog on the flop...

As far as betting the flop, if I bet this flop, I do so with my entire range; Kx, 55, PP, . I also do so based on number of factors: my image, dynamics, history, reads...etc.

As far as V holding KK, I did not make that assumption on the flop. I made it on the river primarily based on his action.

seems to me if villain wanted to bluff the river he would prob just bomb it rather than c/r as you have shown little to no aggression thus far in this hand

unless you have some read that this guy can decider to turn a hand like QQ or something of that hand strength into a bluff on this river rather than try and show down this is probably a fold IMO.

raising the turn really seems like such a better line to take. unless your read is that villain is going to make expensive bluffs on the river.

c/r OTR like this = nutsish type boats/quads from standard players... your underfilled and in a terrible spot. r/r turn and avoid spots like this... if you get r/red OTT than prob quad ks if called trip k AA etc... maybe he overplays AK and r/rs you light thats where you need to decide based on reads. if he jams the ace after flatting you fold... you prob check behind this card if checked too (some river cards you just have to even w/ a boat as all of his range is either better boats/quads or nothing maybe TPTK). your line is the problem here and got you stuck in a spot where I can't find a call. The fact is competent players with low show down value hands (like JTs although I think due to his raise size pre he never has these hands) who think your weak b/c of your line could bluff here especially if your prone to value betting thin.... the fact is you would need to know your opponent very well and understand his thought process completely to make this call. Against thinking/compotent villains your line is bad. against straightforward opponents its fine but u have to find a fold here and know they'd never do this w/o AK/AA/KK and possibly call river w/ KQ/AQ/QQ etc

From Villian's Perspective:

AA - V may check this flop oop deep stacked, to get value from pp's and fd's while controlling the pot size vs Kx hands. This is a good line imo because getting raised otf by someone who can play FD's fast puts u in an awkward spot. Once checked through to the turn, he has to bet now to protect against crappy hands and get value; hence the quick bet. When hero calls ott, V probably reads hero for pp's, Kx, and FDs. When V hits gin otr, he checks to let FD's bluff, Kx bet, and probably thinks pp's aren't calling much if any. I think AA is V's most likely holding.

KK - V has crippled the deck otf and must slowplay. Ott, he has to bet to squeeze some value from pairs and FD's. Otr, V checks to induce a bet thinking that leading doesn't often get called and hero may use the KK and A on the board as scare cards.

AK - V checks otf to slowplay and then bets ott for value from Kx, pairs, and FD's. He checks otr for similar reasons above as AA. However, I think AA is more likely to attempt a c/r because of the greater possibility of Kx in hero's range.

55 - ditto AK.

KQ, KJ - V can play these just like AK above until the river. I think it is unlikely V goes for a c/r otr with these hands. I just don't think V can feel that strongly that hero has a weaker Kx and hero is not calling with less.

As such, I think this is a fold. It is definitely a tough fold in the heat of the moment.

Forgot to mention a Bluff - While it's not impossible, I think it is very unlikely that V is bluffing here. Hero's range is wide open from the line hero took, so what hands is V reading that he can push out? He doesn't sound like the type to try a kamikazee bluff. So, I think you can basically ignore the possbility of a bluff.

Im almost always raising the turn. Your fullhouse is completely undetected and raising here doesnt really change your perceived range cause its almost impossible to put you on 44. He has to put you on a king. i think villain has a K here a ton....and if its AK, he's happily getting it in against you.

Pretty weird line from villain.

Why would he check with AA/AK/KK when you have played the hand so passively? I'm not saying he doesn't have these hands, but it's a pretty strange spot to check raise the nuts unless he has a dead solid read on you. Which I'm assuming he doesn't because of his sideways hat.

I call.

Pretty sick train wreck on the river. The ace is just a really gross spot since I think his line looks like AA more than it does a AK. I don't know if I can get away from it on the river since I'm a showdown monkey.

FWIW - I would have raised the turn to $230 or so. Your hand is damn near invisible.

A check raised river? What indication did we give that we were going to bet the river? If he's a good player he's putting money in with his strong hands, not trying to get us to put money in for him. I really think he's got KQ and puts us on KJ, or KJ and puts us on a busted draw.

I just don't understand this c/r.

Results?