Part of protecting your stack is not calling 7x raises OOP with garbage hands, especially from the SB when you are not closing the action.

I was talking preflop combos dude; I am aware of card removal effects. You give him 9 QJ, I give him 3.

Agree to disagree. My range has him at 3 QJ, 3 JJ and 1 QQ. This guy is not opening up his stack with a hand like AQ and nothing about the read indicates this is the player type to raise AK or AT, especially against an UTG 7x open + c-bet on a wet flop followed by a raise from a deep stack with a good image.

Flatting is the only option to keep his 3 QJ in which balances the 3-4 JJ/QQ we are behind to. And the talk about combos is entirely moot anyway because he's not calling any of them to a 5! flop ship (as Minatorr correctly pointed out).

What does folding out V2's equity in a protected pot do for us? When we have a strong draw we have a dynamic hand - we're either going to hit and win or miss and lose. There is no scenario where we will beat one villain and lose to the other, so denying V2's equity is pointless (especially when he's drawing to a 4 outer) when we have royal/SF outs.

Further, by flatting our draw we allow V2 to continue with his QJ which adds another $335 to the pot giving us nearly direct odds to the turn with our 12-15 outer (1250/435 = 2.9), and since we are IP we can realize our equity by taking a free card on the turn when we miss or value betting when we hit.
This should be fairly easy to prove with an EV calculation if you feel like doing the work, but shoving 400 BB's with a combo draw in a protected pot when he only has 3 combos of QJs vs. 3-4 combos of JJ/QQ is very clearly -EV.

Shoving a draw completely neutralizes the benefit of stack depth + position. It's another weapon in your arsenal to use position effectively and it's a pretty clear fundamental error and leak in my opinion if your first thought is to shove here.

I'm not trying to fold out his equity. I never wrote that, it's something you just picked up and ran with.

I'm trying to realize MY EQUITY. Taking a card off does not in fact help Hero at all in this spot. All it does it let Player 2 see another card before deciding to stack off, and that doesn't help Hero at all.

Player 2's line is in fact nutted; he should not be 3! with a hand that needs additional info. So he's taking a nutted line with the nuts. Or he's FOS. Taking a card off doesn't help us in either of those cases, and there's a decent chance that taking a card off will benefit him.

E.g. a club comes off and he doesn't have a club in the hole. There's about a zero chance he's going to bluff into a dry side, and he'll just give up on his hand. There is only a very small part of Player 2's range that plays poorly against Hero's range on the turn, but plays well on the flop.

If Player 2 is spooked by the shove and reshove, he'll be equally spooked by the shove and call. Flatting Drunky's shove is EXTREMELY strong.

You can realize 72o's equity any time you want by shoving. It doesn't make it an +EV decision however. You've yet to explain how flatting our big draws negates our ability to realize our equity

Did you really just say that? So V2 putting an additional $305 into the pot when we are currently behind V1 anyway and need to catch up does not help us at all?

What in the hell are you talking about? This is just jibberish. Of course V2 is nutted to 3 combos of QJs, 3 combos of 66 (when we have the combo draw), 3 combos of JJ and an indeterminate number of combos of QQ. There is zero "FOS" in his range (per the read in OP), especially when we have all of the combo draw blockers.

We don't need V2 to bluff into a side pot when we hit our 12-15 outer. I honestly have no idea where you are going with that.

Here's what happens when we flat our AK, AT or KT:

Scenario 1: V2 has 3 combos of QJs and flats the additional $305. Now we see a turn in position with $305 more in the pot that may/would have folded to our ship. We either bink or miss the turn and in either case he likely checks to us, allowing us to value bet when we hit and check back when we miss. We save $645 under this scenario when we brick the river all the while "realizing our equity."

Scenario 2: V2 has 3 combos of QJs and flats the additional $305 and shoves any blank turn. Now we need 21.5% to call it off and have 28%, 28% and 31% making for a standard +EV stack off.

Scenario 3: V2 has 3 combos of QJs and decides to shove over our flat (that would have otherwise folded if we shoved our self). Now we have a $3000 pot and have to call off $645 more meaning we need 21.5% equity. Our combo draws have 43%, 44% and 47% equity against the combined AA and QJ. That is called a slam dunk stack off.

Scenario 4: V2 has QQ or JJ or 66 and we either shove into his sets which he insta-calls or we flat V1's jam, V2 shoves and we call it off. When V2 has a set our combo draws have 34%, 35% and 38% equity making for a standard +EV stack off.

It's pretty clear there is no scenario where 5! shipping our combo draws is superior to calling.

Are you more concerned with what appears "stronger" or with making +EV decisions? Because it sounds like the former.

Why do you think a random guy at a casino is folding QJo pre-flop when he's basically closing the action. Because OP claim's he's solid/nit? I see it all the time from these Villains. They don't really "protect" their stack, they just don't usually have less than 2p when they start raising. Some of these guys don't even fold KT pre-flop.

They like hands that can make nut straights and pretty good 2p hands.

Even nits don't usually drive to a casino and fold this hand pre-flop unless it's a monster pot pre-flop. This is a small one, he's deep and he has his hand he likes.

lol how this is a thread is beyond me. grunching the entire thing. snap get it in. every player can have so many hands here. there are 6 combos of sets. ship it dude, winning money is why you came to the casino, right? the possibility there is someone in this thread who says fold because THEY would fold everything but QQ/JJ pf is hilarious but alarming.

This is quite simply a bizarre take on this hand as presented. Player 2's range is obviously significantly wider than this.

You're actually doing the same thing the OP did, framing the problem in a way that minimizes variance (I guess). If we are the best player at the table (which without question is our goal) then why are we framing up every decision in a way that serves to minimize variance?

BTW you misunderstood my previous rant. I was looking at Hero's play of Hero's hand.

Not sure why I read the spoiler and didn't grunch but...

I'm ok with the fold, but then again this is one of the reasons I'm not very comfortable with deepstack.

Obviously not worried about Drunky, if he's somehow oversetted me, nice hand.

But super worried about tight nitty SB. Being $1200 effective with us and on lockdown mode, I can see him easily just flatting QQ/JJ preflop and nutmining postflop. He's got to be worried as hell this deep when we raise Drunky, and yet he decides he's going to now begin towards getting $1200 effective in the middle? He doesn't do this with a draw, he knows he has no FE vs Drunky, he's just going to flat with those hands, hope Drunky comes along, and then hit his hand and get paid off. So now the question is whether a tight nit on lockdown mode is willing to move towards committing $1200 with just top two pair, and in my opinion, the answer is no.

Course, what do I know, he just 3bet/folded the flop (lolz, WTF?!?!?).

ETA: You know how many times I've gotten $1200 into a pot in 3100 hours of 1/3 NL? Exactly never. My *guess* is this tight nitty guy on lockdown mode is probably in the same boat, fair? And yet here he is seemingly ok with doing that. If that's not setting off alarm bells, I don't what would.

GIkeepforgettingtofactorinspazz,whichhappensmoreof tenthanIthinkG

As a general rule, maybe we should always allot 1-2 combos of pure spaz vs. unknowns at low stakes

I didn't read the reveal, I read most of the replies, including the 2+ arguments that got started (lol), and skipped the replies that seemed to be commenting on the reveal...

1st thing that pops out about V2 is in OP he is said
"He's won a few big pots with AK, QQ, sets"
well, did he raise any of them? Did he 3! pre? Just wondering...

Also, V2 can have a pretty wide range here. His action closes the PF betting, and he can have some pretty speculative hands being as deep as he is, and with HERO in the pot also being deep, but also just by having drunky in the pot. I honestly think that if V2 was playing pretty straight forward, he would 3! pre with QQ & JJ. I just can't see a player playing that deep wanting to play post OOP with JJ or QQ. Why not 3! and try to get HU vs. drunky? I think the odds of V2 having one of those two hands is >15%.

Who cares what drunky has? Obv. we are ahead of his range. If he had JJ or QQ, well, that just sucks, move on...

We're just thinking about how to get V2's money. What can V2 honestly have? I don't think QJo is out of the question, so all the QJ possibilities. KT is super possible. A6? sheesh, maybe. What suited A would really consider a check-raise 3! post? Prob none.

V2 is prob 60-70% holding QJ, 25% holding KT, and no more then 10% of the time, he shows up with QQ or JJ. I don't see how he can 3! with a hand like AT and KTo seems out of the question.

So, you're left with the question "will V2 call a shove with 2pr"? Prob not. Will V2 call behind if you flat? He prob throws away 2pr, tbh. But maybe he calls. IDK, it's very close, but since V2 isn't making this post, let's just say he tossed 2pr when facing a $1,200 raise, and calls to close the action for $300ish. He's obv snapping with QQ or JJ, and if you're faced with those hands, life sucks, that's poker, move on. It's just a cooler. Sorry...

Now, would he call the $535 if you flat with KT? Almost 100% yes. I know a lot of posters here would say this is the hand you want to be up against for huge $$$, but I'd just as soon not face this hand. There is already $700 in the pot, and if you could chase V2 out, I'd be happy. If you want to keep V2, call. If you want V2 to fold, shove. A small amount of the time, someone shows up with higher set.

Never, ever folding to drunky's shove though. I'm leaning to 4! shoving, as your SPR is like 1.4, shoving about $1,100 to win like, $800. You certainly hate life if you flat, V2 flats, and a rolls on OTT and V2 shoves. You would have like $600 into like $2k and would have to call, but would almost certainly be behind. Really, any card that rolls off makes it hard to fold to V2 shove, so might as well shove 1st.

Flatting seems to give V2 to many chances to play properly, but also keeps his 2pr hands in, which we def. want to happen. So it's really close.

Also, if being 350+ blinds deep makes you reconsider shoving here, you have too much $$$ on the table, and need to asses away from the table what to do when you get that deep.

Why does everyone always think somebody is on "lockdown" mode because op said he seemingly is. This is live $1/$2, if he did not get up out of his seat, he wants to still see some flops. Sure he may adjust his range. But those big face cards, he's going to see a flop with, because they make nut straights and "good" hands.

The flop is perfect, flush draw, 2 broadways and we got 3b!. I'm actually very happy, that means V1 has no set and V2 has 2p! most of the time.

Hero should likely jam because of that, we want to get V2 to make a mistake and call off putting us on a flush draw to block. Unlikely he calls with worse, even a flush draw might fold. But his 2p is certainly not calling to see a turn, he's either getting it in or he wont. A large % of the time. I just shove and hope.

There is true actually merit for that argument. Flatting or shoving. Folding is just bad. Really bad actually. If alarm bells are going off, you give him credit for flatting QQ/JJ pre-flop and folding QJo. Which I do not, nor should anyone with a definitive reason.

I see no valid reason than our own fears to why anyone would think such.

Sure we're not super happy, if he snap calls, but what are you going to do. Fold the top % of our range when both of our V's range are relatively capped?

Why do we want to help Player 2 play his hand by flatting it to him? Still don't get it; never will get it.

As if flatting it helps us when we have the second best hand?

Flatting vs a really bad opponent is good. Shoving can actually hurt our chances vs a very bad player who wont call off the stack but will call non-all-ins. These types of players exist.

Jamming has strong merit. Flatting has less and folding becomes a move when you should be snap standing up and withdrawing from the table.

Um, OK...

I know who V is, I'm not flatting. I shove.

We should be shipping vs the nits at near 100%

Super nitty to even ask. Ship it. This is a spot where set/set is a minimal enough risk to take it.

If a good player is trying to trap drunky w/ JJ/QQ, it would make more sense to have 3ball pre to ISO and reopen the betting. Also, QJ, AQ, KQ should all be in his range and feeling all right vs. drunky's range.

And if you haven't guessed by now, Minotorr is basically a troll who should be ignored in most threads.

I've already said my definitive reason.

In 3100+ hours I've live 1/3 NL, I'm pretty sure I can count the number of times I've seen $1200 stacks gotten in on one hand (and I'm also fairly positive that statement would remain true even if I lost half my fingers on that hand).

And this tight nit now looks to be setting $1200 stacks in motion.

That's scary as hell.

And we think he's doing that with a draw with no FE, or just two pair when a set is definitely possible?

Obviously the results prove otherwise. But your experience must differ a lot more than mine (Q: How many times have *you* seen $1200 stacks go in?) if you think his move ain't scary as hell.

GscaredashellG

I play a fair bit of poker with people who sit on those stack depthsin terms of BB and it rarely goes in the tighter they are, but I've seen them showdown QJo after hands too much to say they ever fold it pre-flop.

I've never seen super nits even sitting on big stacks. They get up and leave after a big pot or they just sit around while the huge whales are there and nit it up with their big PPs and they enter cheap non-raised pots by limping QJo/QJs.

This guy is not a nit, he's just a tighter player. 2p is in his range. Always.

Yup. Also, there is often a spaz factor with players not cognizant of playing deep.

Not exactly the same, but I've folded AA twice to crazy overbet turn shoves in 3bet pots $800 > deep on dry boards, and been wrong both times.
Just bad 1/2 players that were sure they were ahead w/AQ top pair and KK, but didn't want me to "catch up".

Know your villain and how limited his thinking might be, especially super deep.

Most people don't stack up 1200 stacks in 1/3... that said I've stacked off 200+bb countless times in 100bb capped and set/set is nowhere near bottom of range for that to happen.


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