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decreasing variance?

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05-03-2014 , 08:25 AM

skunkfunk9

enthusiast

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 65

I was wondering if anybody here knew how to decrease variance strategically in no limit. I usually play 1/2 and 2/5. I Find that overall 2/5 is an easier game to beat than 1/2, however, I don't have enough money to play it. I usually take shots at 2/5/ 5/5 5/10, with only 1 or 2 buyin's knowing that i'll be able to take another shot when I get my next paycheck, and a lot of the time I get my money in good, but some idiot ends up drawing out on me with some stupid draw. Would waiting to get the money in on the turn decrease variance? Here's a hand I'd like to discuss.

5/5 NL 5 handed
10 10 in sb.
UTG raises to 25
call
Me and BB call.
flop 10 7 3 with 2 hearts
check check bet 85
I call BB raises to 250 and I push all in for 600 total
both players call and the turn is a jack (forget the river as i lost on the jack)
original preflop raiser turns over 89 and the board doesn't pair.

In retrospect, I should have raised on the flop, but the guy behind me raised anyway and the player who was open ended still call his raise to 250. Had I raised, he might have pushed and I guess the open ended draw may have folded, but maybe not. That's the only way I see winning this hand. I didn't raise because I thought that the guy behind me would fold to 85 and I'd be heads up against AA KK QQ or a good jack. I thought they would bet the turn and I would push them there. If a draw got there on the turn I'd be a little more cautious. Any thoughts on this hand?

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05-03-2014 , 11:07 AM

just_grindin

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 5,263

Quote:

Originally Posted by skunkfunk9

Embrace the variance. It's not just a negative thing. Practice good bankroll management and avoid mixing life money and poker roll. After that it's just getting used to the fact you're always going to be gambling and even a 99% lock could run against the probability in the short term.

If you have disposable income you can certainly invest into your poker roll but as soon as you're using bill money to play poker you've gone too far imho.

Sent from my SCH-R760X using 2+2 Forums

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05-03-2014 , 12:36 PM

booommmaaa

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 241

just accept variance, only way to 'decrease' it is running it more than once.

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05-07-2014 , 12:16 AM

slimshady1999

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 4,313

Either cr flop or lead flop in this spot. Yes flatting flop decreases variance but you lose way too much value in the process. This is a fat value spot and you're a 75% favorite against a naked flush draw. It's much more profitable to get it in on flop as a 75% fav instead of getting villain to fold blank turns

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05-07-2014 , 12:20 AM

slimshady1999

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 4,313

Ways to decrease variance without it negatively affecting winrate. Run it twice. Play fewer hands. You should be playing less than 30% of hands anyways. Don't limp often. Other ways to reduce variance but that will limit your winrate. Wait only for the nuts. Don't make big hero calls ever. Don't run huge bluffs. Don't 3bet bluff or isolate wide pre. Etc

Another way to greatly reduce variance. Fix up all your leaks. Unless you play a really laggy game, variance will go way down once you fix up your leaks. I'm assuming at most $1/2 and $2/5 games.

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05-07-2014 , 12:26 AM

cardsponge

banned

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 42

Play pot control.

That particular hand, any way you look at it you're going to lose the money.

Primarily though, if you're looking to reduce variance, find more passive games.

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05-08-2014 , 02:38 AM

Edwin1984

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 175

I don't like both streets very much..

Bad beat man, hope you got laid or did something more fun tht night.

An old Asian lady kept complaining at the blackjack table today that I kept taking the wrong cards. She doesnt get it

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05-08-2014 , 10:22 AM

The1Kid

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 227

I have been thinking about this a lot lately as well, I think the mention of finding more passive tables is good advice.

I went and played some real aggressive games recently and had a huge downswing (-8 Bi's over 20 hours live)

All were complete suckouts where I waited for the nuts and got shoved on, made the call and they hit there draw.

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05-08-2014 , 11:08 AM

dgiharris

All Hail His Modness

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 12,292

Imo, the best way to decrease variance is to widen the skill gap between yourself and your villains.

Below I outline a few examples of what I'm talking about. But in a nutshell, learning how to recognize, identify, and exploit your villains' tendencies and weaknesses will lead to "other" ways of winning rather than the typical getting it all-in preflop with

Spoiler:

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05-08-2014 , 11:29 AM

#10

Under_the_Radar

adept

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 1,078

Solid post by Harris and some good points. But the fact remains that many players will never be able to achieve the level of play described.

As a practical matter you're right. The smallest nl games, such as $1/2 & $1/3 do have the highest percentage of variance. There are a number of reasons, but ALL of the reasons revolve around in-experienced players.....think they're cute being all trappy & tricky checking multiple streets w/ nut type of hands....often waiting to bomb in a huge ck raise later, too scared to bet there hand, too dumb to know the math of the game, getting involved in too many limped pots, out of position play, and the list goes on.
I am an experienced player, you could give me a stack of money so tall its falling over and often times I can not range a hand from a low stakes player....the reason is simple, they don't understand the game and do weird and bizarre things that make no sense. Often times they don't even know what they're doing, or why they're betting or calling a bet, ect...

$2/5 & $5/10+ games are much more clean, but also much more complex reasoning and bluffs/ pressure, often times for significant amounts of money.

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05-08-2014 , 11:30 AM

#11

AcePlayerDeluxe

1st Gear Pinned

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 19,221

OP- I mean this in the nicest way possible... Your thinking is fishy. First of all I don't think you understand variance. It doesn't mean taking a "bad beat."

Secondly you say that 2/5 is easier to beat than 1/2... Over what sample size are you coming up with this conclusion? It sounds like you are playing a tighter, more skilled player pool at 2/5 and they fold more to your raises and what not. That is not necessarily a good thing. Or you played like 80 hours of 2/5 and you are a big winner in those 80 hours so you assume it must be easier. If I am wrong here please explain to me why you think 2/5 is easier.

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In retrospect, I should have raised on the flop,

Why, because you wouldn't have lost the hand? That is what you go on to say. That is not a reason to either raise or call. Sorry your 75%'er didn't hold up this time, but you're supposed to lose 25% of the time.

I am going to be super blunt here... I think you need to work on your game a ton. You can take that two ways. You can tell me to eff off because you are a big winner who has paid off all his cars because of poker, or you can take a serious look at your game and fix it. Up to you.

This thread is BBV, but I am going to let it play out for a minute. I think a few others need to read this too.

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05-08-2014 , 12:12 PM

#12

Jake Stanton

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 437

playing against nits will reduce variance but your winrate will also likely suffer. anytime you're on a very loose table with 1 or more villains going to showdown with any piece you will likely have some big wins but a higher percentage of losses just because you need the goods to take down a pot.

imo you need to take your focus off of "how could i have won the hand" and analyze your equity when most of the chips went in the pot. use a tool like pokerstove and focus on making +EV decisions and the variance won't matter when you see you're getting the money in as 60% favorite 3 handed.

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05-08-2014 , 12:32 PM

#13

Troyble

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 345

Quote:

Originally Posted by slimshady1999

Yes flatting flop decreases variance but you lose way too much value in the process.

I could be wrong, but I tend to think raising here with top set is actually the lower variance play too.

When we flat it's because we don't think much of our opponents ranges are strong enough to continue against a raise. We're giving them a chance to improve to a second best hand, or bluff into us on a later street, which increases the size of the pot when we win it. In doing this, we're also giving them a chance to improve to a better hand than ours, so we're winning the pot less frequently.

By raising flop we're taking down the pot in the middle immediately some percentage of the time (obviously not what we're going for with the flopped nuts, but inevitable) which is variance-free EV. We're also setting up to get the rest of our stack in on the turn, which denies drawing hands any chance of getting to the river with money still behind (and the implied odds that come with that.)

Edit: That last sentence probably speaks more to the +EV part than the lower variance part.

Last edited by Troyble; 05-08-2014 at 12:47 PM.

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05-08-2014 , 12:54 PM

#14

Edwin1984

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 175

Quote:

Originally Posted by Under_the_Radar

As a practical matter you're right. [B]The smallest nl games, such as $1/2 & $1/3 do have the highest percentage of variance

Not true at all.

Bigger games will have bigger swings, for several reasons which can be summarized by :your competition is tougher.
You need a larger bankroll relative to stakes (# of buy ins) in larger games for the very reason that variance is higher, win rate likely lower.

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05-08-2014 , 01:07 PM

#15

au4all

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 2,872

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edwin1984

That doesn't make sense to me.

If I get aces all in against kings pre-flop for 100 dollars then on average I should have 163.89 (that's my pre-flop EV) after the hand is over. If I have something else (either 200 or zero) that's variance. That happens at all stakes.

If I play poker three sessions against tough opponents and my results are 0, -500, +500 and then three sessions against easy opponents and my results are +1500, +2000, +2500 my variance is the same both times. A greater win rate doesn't mean less variance.

http://www.alcula.com/calculators/statistics/variance/

Last edited by au4all; 05-08-2014 at 01:08 PM. Reason: Added link to variance calculator

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05-08-2014 , 01:57 PM

#16

Playbig2000

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 12,071

variance is the reason why bad players keep coming back to play. They call with a one outer and stack us. But we welcome that call all day long because the key is they will now keep doing that for the next 100 times, and the good players, who are very good friends with variance, know that in the long run we will have all of their money.

You can not escape the swings of variance (although, there are different styles of play, such as a slag will have higher swings than a tight tag) if you flip a coin 10 times and 8 times in a row it lands on tails, that is just the way it is. Nothing can be done to change that.

The more you can accept the variance and swings, the less it will affect your mental game.

(op it sounds like you may be playing a little under-rolled which is going to make the swings harder and harder to handle mentally).

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05-08-2014 , 02:08 PM

#17

Troyble

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 345

Higher stakes live games typically have higher variance. It Mostly has to do with the increased aggression of our opponents, and the adjustments we have to make to combat them.

The general strategy that beats LLSNL (value bet hard, bluff rarely, hero call rarely) is about as low variance as it gets.

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05-08-2014 , 02:12 PM

#18

Edwin1984

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 175

Quote:

Originally Posted by au4all

A greater win rate doesn't mean less variance.

http://www.alcula.com/calculators/statistics/variance/

Let's assume your win rate is 12bb/100 at 1-2, 3bb/100 at 2-5, 1bb/100 at 5-10. Which is not crazy.

You will have way more and longer streaks of running below expectation at 2-5 and even more at 5-10. In fact at 5-10 you could be a winning player with that 1bb/100 win rate and lose for the rest of this year simply from run bad.
At the 1-2 win rate of 12bb/100 you simply won't have as many (or as long) streaks where you are running below (Or WAY below) expectation.

Also if every hand is liable to put you out of action (in the case of op) it really doesn't matter how good he is, if he never has more than one or two buy ins, his chances of getting broke will be very high.

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05-08-2014 , 02:12 PM

#19

Edwin1984

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 175

Quote:

Originally Posted by Troyble

Truth

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05-08-2014 , 02:37 PM

#20

Edwin1984

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 175

Important point: variance is not a poker term for bad luck or getting sucked out on. So let's not get stuck there (no pun intended)
Variance is the distance from the mean. The standard deviation, another measure of volatility, is the square root of the variance.
There is a lot of material on how to calculate variance out there. Aim obviously to have the largest sample size and be increasingly skeptical of the real mean as sample size decreases.
Your most frequent results should be expected +/- 1 standard deviation, data points that are much more or less than this can be described as high variance.

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05-08-2014 , 02:44 PM

#21

Edwin1984

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 175

But to answer ops question.
Try and avoid getting involved oop. Many spots in NL holdem are pretty neutral ev, opt for the muck even though you may be givin up a few bucks of expectation. Ie: 200bb deep, player opens the HJ, you have Axs in BB. Fold.
Not my style but low variance.

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05-08-2014 , 02:54 PM

#22

au4all

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 2,872

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edwin1984

Variance is not your chance of being a winning player. Again you could be -500, -1000 and breakeven on three days. And +5000, +6000 and + 5500 on three other days. The variance is the same on each three days.

You could lose 1000 dollars a day for the rest of your life. That would be zero variance.

Or you could make a million dollars one day and lose 250,000 the day after, and win a million the next, etc. That would be huge variance.

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05-08-2014 , 03:34 PM

#23

Edwin1984

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 175

Quote:

Originally Posted by au4all

Right.
I wrote a following post saying that sorta thing.
Variance being used as a poker term meaning bad luck is where the fundamental problem with this thread.
It was really just a bad bear story but I think op has an underlying question.

I think the real question is about staying in action and not being in a position where if you string together a few big coolers you get broke and can't play. (Till next Friday

)despite feeling like you are a big favorite to win the money in that game.

Fact of the matter is, if you are playing on a short bankroll, no bankroll in this case, a lot of bad things can happen and you likely aren't playing as well as you could on top of the risk of ruin.

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05-08-2014 , 03:45 PM

#24

BetStack

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 172

Quote:

Originally Posted by dgiharris

Imo, the best way to decrease variance is to widen the skill gap between yourself and your villains.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Under_the_Radar

Solid comments by dgiharris and Under_the_Radar

Random thoughts for OP ...

1) Your edge in the game will come from mental resilience; you can't let beats/variance take that away from you

2) Winning at 1/2 and 1/3 is getting value from your value hands, finding +EV spots, and making +EV plays. You will not be running level47-druid-master-shaolin-monk bluffs ... IMO ... lead that flop with top set and give 89 a reason to fold.

3) My impression is you have bankroll-tilt-money issues which impact you on and off the tables. Get this under control and you'll probably master other issues/leaks in your game/life.

A) Get a nice money clip
B) Fund it with appropriate # of BIs (not just 1 or 2 shot taking BIs)
C) If you bust though that, its time to do some soul searching why you play and what it takes to crush the game

4) If not already start working on your game away from the tables; you'll separate yourself from the rec players who spend time there to get away from the boss/women/etc...

GL