These types of spots come up often enough and I am struggling between when to take a B/F line and when to take a X/C line. I know it's hand dependent, so maybe we can discuss a bet what factors you use to determine whether you B/F or X/C. I think the default on this forum is always to B/F, but I'm wondering what spots we're losing value by doing that.

Game:
V1 (MP+1) ($1k): MAWG, nothing remarkable. Pretty fit/fold

V2 (MP+2) ($1.2K): White guy probably in his 30s. Plays a pretty TAG game, although we've only been at the same table for 1 hour, so I haven't seen enough to make strong judgments

Hero (BB): $1.5K, been very aggressive at the table post flop. The table has been pretty fit/fold, with no bluffs being run. I've been double barreling with I'd say an 80-90% success rate. It's not something I normally do, but it's been working well with this table.

OTTH

MP+1, MP+2, CO all limp. SB completes. Hero checks with 79

Flop ($25): 5 6 8

Yahtzee!

SB checks, Hero leads $20, MP+1 and MP+2 both call, CO and SB Fold

Turn ($85): 4

Hero leads $65, MP+1 and MP+2 both call

River ($280): Q

Hero?

Standard line is bet/fold, but I'm wondering what we're getting value of here. At best, we're hoping for a crying call from two pair (like 56s, 86s), lower straights (76s, 87s), and sets. No single pair is calling here. I also would have expected most of these hands to raise at some point, especially from V2. We're also taking a fairly exploitable line by B/Fing here since most villains know they can bluff the spade.

Thoughts?

C/f is fine but since we are so aggro a small river bet for value may get looked up by two pair. $100 feels right.

Edit: I don't see how someone is gonna run a NFD blocker play here, too many overlays of probabilities that would need to happen. Upon 2nd glance I think betting here is too thin (based on my gut). Will come back to this shortly

Being first to act you can x, and then if v1 bets and v2 raises you have a trivial fold etc..

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I think bet/fold may be okay? (not sure) since we have the nut str8 and can get called by worse 7x/st8s at least, but pretty sure on of the villain's is going to have a flush here a lot.

It's a close spot, but if you want you can always do some simple EV calcs in this spot between EV of betting and EV of checking (OOP).

Betting river is too thin IMO - any 7x is raising turn to protect vs flush draws. We're going to own ourselves a bunch. We may win sometimes and any passively played 7x is going to showdown once the flush comes in.

That is either a b/f or a c/f. It should rarely be a c/c because it is a multiway pot where the villains have played passively and the most obvious draw got there. The only way I am c/calling is if the first player checks and the second player bets and I know he is capable of being tricky/taking stabs.

I lean towards b/f for a few reasons. First we have flushes in our range so we can't be easily bluff raised. Second I expect to be called by worse straights. Third there are very few hands that they realistically can be turning into a bluff so I rarely expect to induce here.

i would have tried to c/r either flop or turn

definitely never betting river, usually c/f'ing, might talk myself into c/c'ing mp2 if i think he would turn a set into a bluff here if it double checked to him but that's really not very likely so i prob c/f pretty much always

Grunching ...

I think it is too thin to bet. A 7X hand is likely raising turn, so facing two calling opponents a FD is clearly possible.

Check and evaluate. V1 plays face-up, so if he checks and V2 bets, trust your live read to call or fold.

If V1 bets and V2 raises, ez fold.

I'm not sure what I'd do on turn, but I wouldn't be leading $65

I like check raising the turn real big to maximize value from a lone 7. On the river as played I'm still bet folding about 150, def wierd spot but if I check Id just c/f.

Yeah, if I bet turn, I'm making a silly large bet to extort value from 7x. Never betting under pot.

Can you explain?

That's an interesting high variance line. However, I'm not sure that we don't get the same value by just betting the turn and getting a possible raise. Only the most passive of players just calls the turn here with a straight when there's so much interest in the pot and a flush draw. I think checking and hoping for a bet is going to lead to too many check throughs with a free card for flush draws.

I'm honestly a little shocked at the amount of x/f being advised here. I realize much of it depends on villain's sizing, but even if there is a bet here for $175, do we really think we're not good here 28% of the time?

Seems very MUBSy to me. If I'm MP+2 with a 7, are we really just shutting down here and checking the river?

Oh yeah didn't think of that lol.

If you are MP+2 and are cautious enough to close action on the turn by flatting a straight, are you really then betting that straight for value when the only draw comes in? What are you hoping to get called by? I would say most straights don't bet this river but the players who do never flat a straight on the turn. Players weak/tight enough to do that are never betting worse than a flush for value on this board.

If Im V Im not raising A7 on the turn or calling with 2pair. Def betting a 7 if checked too and itd be very hard to get away from it on the turn if check raised. Leading is cool too since all FDs are calling but feels like c/r the turn would get max value since we can win a big pot from a 7. If Vs have FDs or 2pair who cares since theres not much value to be had.

Overbet turn

Very interesting idea hm.

c/f is good on the river. Seems like a very small chance 2 tags are both flatting a 7 ott. I think betting ott is good. MP1 can have a 7 but I don't think mp2 can.

sorry but calling with a bare 7 is not bad OTT facing a 3/4 psb

one of vilain can have 78o and u never have flush here.

AP b/f is ok Except if vilain is good enough to raise bluff u IP

Check/call or check/fold depending on action and size. Against two opponents w/o much info, I think bet/fold is a mistake. Folding the best hand here would be bad, and if either is good enough to bluff the river with a raise, say with the naked As, we are toast.