This hand is from a regular $0.50/$1 home game I've been playing in twice a week for 3+ years.

Prehand Descriptions
Hero: Perceived as one of the better players, and very tight (27%/14% when playing against 5-7 players, which is the tightest in our game). My postflop aggression generally gets lots of respect.
Villain: A consistent, winning player with a tight style similar to mine, though less imaginative. Generally straightforward and conservative. He definitely can be bluffed.

$0.50/$1 NL (6 handed)
CO Hero (340 bb)
BU (402 bb)
SB Villain (421 bb)

Hero is dealt As6s

2 folds, CO (Hero) raises to 4 bb, BU calls, SB (Villain) calls, BB folds.

Flop (13 bb) Ts 5c 3s
Villain donks 4 bb (30%), Hero raises 14.5 bb, BU folds, Villain calls 10.5 bb.

Turn (42 bb) 4c
Villain donks 31.5 bb (75%), Hero...?

The elusive double-donk on the flop and turn!

I have been very successful in this group by playing a tight, value-oriented game and rarely bluffing (especially across multiple streets), but players have started to catch on. This year I've been having trouble getting value out of my big hands, and I've been working on finding more spots to bluff and/or be more aggressive. So should I just call the turn, or is this a good spot to add aggression to my game with a semibluff raise?

In terms of theory, the action so far is pretty far from GTO, but I'm still interested in talking though what factors I should be considering here. Do I even want a raising range on the turn? I'm in position, and at the time I thought the 4c helped Villian's range much more than mine, but in retrospect I still could have 76s and all the sets. If I have a raising range, do I want this hand in it? It would suck if I got reraised with so much equity, but then again I block the hands that Villain is most likely to reraise (76s, especially 7s6s). I wasn't sure how to best think about this, theoretically.

In terms of playing exploitatively, I was also torn in two directions. On one hand, Villain is a straightforward and conservative player who is repeatedly betting into strength, so he has something he likes. On the other hand, he is a straightforward and conservative player who can be bluffed, and my image is a tight player who rarely bluffs, and raising on multiple streets will look very strong. Also, my read on this particular player is that his donks are weighted towards pairs that are trying to deny me free cards for my draws/overcards, but I didn't know how sure I would need to be of that read before a raise would be the right play.

Thoughts appreciated. Thanks!

Seems like V has a set or A2ss, or 67ss , 64ss. You said he is unimaginative. Seems kind of like a punt to raise vs a straightfoward player straightfowardly saying I dont care what you have I am donking, callng your raise of the donk, then donking turn for 3/4 pot because I really like my hand.

Seems like a straightfoward call

This is not a player you need a lot of theory against and should be exploiting.

Can you articulate why you have this "read" ?

What past hands have you seen that have taken a similar line? How many times? How many hours do you have with this individual?


Rough estimate...how many shown down hands have you seen him donk flop? How many turn?



You'll need to be able to confidently answer those questions before you can remotely begin to use this info for an exploit.

don't bluff guys that really like their hand. you've got multiple nutted draws with deep stacks remaining, and the pot odds to continue especially if A's are live outs.

collect your sklansky bucks.

You also don’t necessarily need to raise on the flop here. If this guy is as straightforward as you say, you can call and then he’ll probably tell you with his turn sizing whether you can raise then.

As played do not raise. This is a big hand. Villain was pretty clearly trying to bait you into raising for him on the flop, which you fell for, and is now trying to make sure you can’t take a free card with a healthy-sized bet.

I prefer a flop call, hopefully BU will join our fun.

Thanks for all the input.

I do agree that I don't need theory against this player (or most/all players in this game, really) and should just be in exploit mode. But I would like to work on becoming a better player with a firmer grasp of theory. Even if I decide to make a purely exploitative play, I would at least like to know what theoretical factors I should be considering in that situation against a stronger/unknown/more balanced opponent.

I'm having a particularly difficult time finding spots for bluffs to balance my value bets and raises, which my opponents have increasingly been making the correct folds against. I thought this hand might be a good semibluff candidate, but had doubts even in the moment, and I especially appreciate the points that even my flop raise might not be the right idea.

As for reads, I have a lot of experience against this player, playing with the same group twice a week for 3+ years (we each have 100k-ish hands played with this group, though not always at the same table). So I am pretty confident that his donks are weighted towards medium-strength hands like pairs, and that he generally prefers to check-raise his strongest hands (he is a big fan of check-raising, and is the second-most frequent check-raiser in the group). But how much does he have to be weighted towards medium-strength hands for raising to be a viable option? If I can discount straights and sets by 25%, is that enough to raise? 50%? 75%?

All in all, though, it seems like this wasn't the hand to raise and I should look elsewhere for opportunities to be aggressive. Thanks again.

Results:

Raising turn is tempting but him shoving turn is so awful for us that we shouldn’t risk it.

Who said you don't need theory? Theory can be applied to any spot in poker.


For example, theory says that if his donks are weighted that heavy to medium strength hands, you need to start raising his donks with more air, and calling them with better hands. And mix it up just enough that he won't catch on too quickly.


Theory/GTO and exploits are one and the same. You study Theory so that you can be a better exploitative player.


If this were rock, paper, scissors and he always throws rock in this spot, you throw paper at a higher rate, some rock, and a very small amount of scissors. Enough that you are printing EV, but also not being figured out.

Same here. Raise his medium strength donks with a lot of air, mix in a smattering of better hand raises, but mostly calls.....and the rare lesser hand in smaller pots that you lose. Just enough to keep him donking his hands and folding them mostly.

The entire point of modern theory is to ignore our opponents’ ranges and do what’s going to work no matter what they show up with. So anytime we are using our opponents’ ranges as input into our decision making, we are leaving “GTO” land.

I like your play throughout.

You should be at least slightly more likely to have TT. Is he so conservative that he doesn't ever 3! TT? You should also be more likely to have 55 and 33, as he might fold these in the SB. Only a really loose, passive player would always call all these hands in the SB and this isn't one. There aren't really any 2P. Of course, you can have AA or KK.

I disagree with SolvingLP that you need empirical proof to make a read on this guy if you understand how he thinks. Also, with all the unusual action, there could easily be something you are picking up on with this player as far as a live read or tell.

You are kind of boned if you raise the turn and he has a set, but I think that's pretty rare. The PF action reduces sets. The lead is a little funny with a set. He should expect you to c-bet often enough. When you raise the flop, he might 3! with a set. After it goes raise call OTF, it seems like he'd check the turn a lot with a set. The wheel draw comes in, which is a wrinkle. If he lead with a set again, I'd kind of expect him to go more than 75%.

I also think he might not shove on you with bottom set, and possibly middle set. Those both lose to a lot of combos now. Maybe those combos aren't all realistic. But you could have As2s which is impossible for him and you could have 6s7s which would be pretty weird for him, as an unimaginative player. He's a conservative player and he might not want to play for 400bb with the Xth nuts. If he calls and checks, what would you do on rivers?

Anyway, I think he has a 1 pair hand just way more than he has sets. I'd expect some people to show up here with JJ a lot or even QQ. AT makes sense (picked up a wheel draw). All that is going to fold. And on the occasions when he does have a set, I don't think he always punishes you by shoving.

A lower draw doesn't make much sense. But if he does have one, it's nice to get more money in and to prevent him from bluffing you on blank rivers. Also,it occurs to me now, that you kind of don't want him to have something 5s6s in this spot as you might have things happen like, he calls and then accidentally wins a show down.

I have no problem with never raising the turn, I guess. But also NP with the way you played it. While I get that it's really bad if he has TT and shoves, I just think it's rare and you can win here an awful lot.

The line seems very nutted. I would not bluff raise because my read would be that V is never folding. Try to make your hand and shovel money on the river.