Despite this extremely simple and rational statement you've made, some people (specifically those in the following thread: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...32/index3.html ) seem to believe it's actually profitable to bet with 34% equity when we have 0 FE!

Your points are all extremely valid and if I wasn't a lazy bum I'd try to calculate those odds myself, because this is a spot which comes up constantly and I usually opt to barrel turn. Though there is great merit to realizing your equity as well, as you've pointed out.

As for your point with QQ and AJ when you said that portion won't be there on the river and we'll only have the polarized part of his range; isn't that exactly what we want? If you're arguing he's folding everything but the top of his range (and I'm guessing he's going to be peeling the flop with hands as weak as 99/TT, JT, QJ, etc), then that should mean we have a massive amount of FE.

Since we have only the top of his range now, we should almost always get paid off on a river shove, and happily give up when checked to OTR. I think the math would be important here, but the ability to get looked up lighter OTR is only good if we don't plan on bluffing river when we check behind OTT.

This hand is quite unique because of the villain as I believe I have a strong read here although he is not primarily a cash player but tourny one. There is a 200 tournament every Wednesday at this casino and villain plays almost every one of them. I am going at the casinos on Wednesdays to play cash with the tourny players that bust out and I have played with him before a few times.
To the question now. Villain is UTG and will limp spp,mpp up to 99s. QJ,KJ,KQ maybe KTs will open for 3bbs, TT I can't say, maybe is on his premiums.

For sure 3bet pre is debatable and not a winning strategy with such a holding.
But my image at the table was very good at the time, villain is a weak and predictable player to my eyes, I believe I have strong reads on him and I want to mix up my game and eventually showdown a winning hand that will confuse the table a little bit and off course win a nice pot.

For the flop play I agree with most of the comments that it could be larger but only maybe by 5 euros that is 30.

OTT I think checking here is the best play with the particular villain and because is a 3bet pot. He called the 3bet pre flop and called the flop bet.
What is his range given the reads I have on him? I would say all the combos of QJ, KJ, AJ, KsQs, KsTs and maybe some Ax of spades. What is my perceived range given my image and the hands I have showdown so far? I would say AA,KK,AK,JJ,QQ and maybe some AQs. If the K OTT has helped him in the form of two pair, or TP and FD he is either calling or shoving. Although its the best card in the deck for double barelling I don't think he folds that much.

OTR the play is easy and its very likely I was looked up very light, maybe even with a K as given my perceived range and the turn play it was almost impossible for me to have something better than one pair.

Question: If he calls turn and we brick river, what does V folding ? Personally I think he never folds if he calls the turn.

Yeah he's very weighted towards value hands when he calls OTT. I think the ideal play is bet turn check river if we brick.

I see the merit on this play, but lets see the stack sizes also.

V is starting the hand around 200, after the call OTF he has around 160.
OTT
1.If we bet 55 and he folds we win 85.
2.If we bet 55 and he shoves for 160? We have 34% equity if we don't put him on diamonds and we need to call 105 to win 298 which is break even EV if my calc is correct.
3. If we bet 55, he calls and we brick river we lose 98 (as I don't think he ever folds river)
4. If we check, brick the river and he bets, we fold and lose 85 (including his bets)
5. If we check, bink the river and he checks, we bet 55 and he folds we win 85.
6. If we check, bink the river and he checks, we bet 55 and he calls we win 140.
7. If we check, bink the river and he bets lets say 55 for a value bet, we reraise all in he folds we win 140.
8. If we check, bink the river and he bets lets say 55 for a value bet, we reraise all in he calls we win 249.
9. If we bet 55 OTT bink river, shove and get called we win 249.

I believe realizing our equity with scenarios 6,7 or 8 are the most profitable.

Got it OP. Ok so V probably can't have ANY of those 98, 87, 77, 99, T8, T9 hands.

However, he's also weighted to particularly weak hands.

QJ is 12 combos. Axss is around 8. AJ is 12. And I do appreciate your reads, but I do have to think there are at least some combos of those above hands as well.

KJ is just 9. Kxss is 2 based on those combos.

Mpethy, what I'm seeing is at least 32 combos that beat us that fold a decent % frequency to a turn barrel + river 3rd barrel and just 11 two pair + top pair combos that don't fold.

Thinking about V's range, it's actually quite weak on this texture, and the turn really is an excellent barrel card especially when it's followed up by a river barrel.

Other than KJ exactly, I'm also not seeing a lot of hands that pay off a large river bet when we hit, and that diminishes the value of our drawing equity. It's also interesting that something like 20% of V's range can be better flush draws and that presents some RIO considerations.

And again, that's with OP's range, which eliminates all possible 99, 98s, T9s, etc. Those are A LOT of combos and even if we just add a few, we could easily be looking at a ratio of hands for V such that he [folds to a turn bet or calls and then folds on most rivers] as often as 75%+ of the time. I mean, if V has all combos of QJ, he probably also has 12 combos of a hand like JT, which often will fold under pressure. And is there really no way he ever has T9? Everything beats 6-high.

I'm just seeing a ton of combos - both the ones OP cites with his read as well as others that may naturally follow - from which we profit big with a turn barrel + river barrel. Finally, I think there's also "equity" in betting turn and getting called by hands V will fold to our river bet. If he calls Jx, T9, Axss on turn planning to fold river a good % of the time, the turn bet works great in two ways - V can a) fold outright or b) build a bigger pot with us and then fold river.

So I'm definitely seeing more "value" (as well as volatility) in barreling rather than checking back with a very non nut draw trying to hit against what is on average a fairly weak V range against which we can very rarely build a large river pot without actually having the worst flush.

I'm pretty sure V had KJ exactly.

It's great we won a larger pot. But imo this line isn't the most +EV line, and we got lucky to have been up against 1 of the 9 combos of a hand that represents a small % of V's full range.

It is clearly results orientated because if the river bricks there is no plan and no way to represent anything credibly.

River: 2h
V checks, Hero checks. V: "I missed" shows 10h9h. Hero mucks.
Mpethy: "you played this hand to perfection! Do you coach?"

I shouldn't have to spend the next 30 minutes adding together all the combos that call the flop and fold turn because you are too lazy to, but to get you started it would be all non-combo spade draws, J9+, 87,89,810,8A,910,99. Now you try to justify why the fold equity that these dozens of combos have doesn't make this an easy turn bet.

My last statement was taken the wrong way - it was not meant to be antagonistic or accusatory. I know you are not "results oriented" in general,but none of us are immune to bias when we have further info is all I was saying.

Forgive me for not having the time (or perhaps the ability) to crunch all the numbers but I'm basically on the same page as Willyoman.

Again my reasons for barreling would be

1) the turn hits our perceived range more than V's flop continuing range (ie I believe we have sufficient FE OTT even though his entire range is "better" than us at this point
2) we have decent hand equity but zero show down value when we brick (2/3 of the time
3) I do believe V can fold to a triple barrel bluff even with hands he calls turn with
4) in turn, a lot of those hands don't pay us off when we bink anyway

And with all due respect to the OP's post flop play (which I'm sure is good), the turn is really the only street up for debate here. Almost all are c-betting this board after 3-betting and value-raising this river.

Because much of this "range" is results-oriented fiction designed to plus up our fold equity so that betting the turn looks better.

I'm OK with the turn check, but we do need to bluff the river if we miss, without a doubt.

A big part of checking turn is our ability to get called much lighter then we expect a turn bet to be called. I would not advise bluffing river regardless of betting or checking the turn

Except the problem with this is that (a) we act last and if the villain bricks as well, he may bluff at it first and take away our opportunity and (b) there are not many rivers where we can credibly represent a value bet. So most made hands are calling you and only trash hands that aren't being turned into a bluff are folding. Way less fold equity than a turn stab and now no actual equity to boot.

This doesn't even make sense. This is a 1/2 live game where people are 3! With 5-6 suited and you don't think people are playing suited connectors?

Maybe you're in a bad mood because everyone thought you played horribly in the thread you created? http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...-hand-1550725/

This is just an internet discussion group where people post their opinions. It's not life and death.

The OP included what we know about the Villain. It didn't include him raising with every suited connector. It's illogical to imagine that certain hands are in his range, and that therefore you can justify some play by that imagination. Whether you happen to agree with mpethybridge in this exact spot, at least he has the skill of thinking and writing logically.

From the OP: will open all broadway suited cards and medium aces for 3bbs whereas his premiums for 5-6 bbs from early position.

Villain can have all manner of hands on the turn which are ahead of us, and likely would
Against our agro "bet our equity" line
A) Fold to a turn bet (8x/77/QT)
Good. They fold the winner and we risk $55 to win $85

B) Call a turn bet and check/fold to a river shove (8x/Jx?/T9/QT/FDs)
Good. They fold the winner and we risk $155 to win $195

C) Call a turn bet AND check/call a river shove (Jx/Kx)
We risk $155 to win $400 pot 34% of the time and lose $400 65%

D) Raise a turn bet (sets/KJ/J8)
They shove and we still have 34% equity(breakeven)
We call $100 to win $300

Compared to our passive "realize our equity first" line

A) Free showdown due a turn check (8x/77/QT)
We hit the river 34%, they fold anyways, we miss the river, we check they win.

B) Check / check behind and showdown 6 high (8x/Jx?/T9/QT/FDs/Kx)
They were looking for a reason to fold but even they are surprised they won the pot

C) Check behind turn, and hit the river and get called into a smaller pot
We win a 1 value bet from an $85 sized pot, otherwise lose

D) We check the turn, we hit the river they bet we shove they call (sets/KJ/J8)


What I am getting at, is there are a lot of marginal hands that can call the turn, which ARE beating our hand but don't know it. We can actually extract value from all the draws and weak made hands that will call a turn bet and fold when they likely don't improve. We also protect our Bluff range with the 34% equity for when they actually have a hand.

Double barrel $60-$65 on one of the best double barrel cards in the deck.

I think that checking back the turn is a big mistake. Given that Villain has raise/called previously with J8s versus a 3bet, I think it is very possible that Villain has 8x (like T8s/98s/87s...which are all hands that most players are more likely to open-raise than J8s) here. Against a range that includes a decent amount of 8x, a double barrel bluff will work at a very high frequency.

I think that you are taking this read way too narrowly. When you say that Villain's range is weighted towards Broadways based off Hero's read, that doesn't mean that he always has Jx here. First, Villain could easily have A8s (medium suited Ace). Secondly, he could have some SCs/SGs/small pairs too. You might say that the Hero didn't mention those combos as being part of Villain's range in Hero's reads. Well, J8s isn't exactly a suited Broadway (I would actually call J8s a S2G), so we have to discount the "all broadway suited cards and medium aces for 3bbs..." read from Hero a little bit. If I had seen the same things that Hero had seen from Villain, I would probably say something like "Villain's range seems to be Broadways/Medium Aces/Random SCs/Random SGs/Random S2Gs when he open-raises to 3bbs."

Even if Villain does have some kind of Jx hand, he will still fold it sometimes on the turn. Remember that he was caught raise/calling J8s to a 3bet earlier. That means that he could easily have QJ/JTs/J9s/maybe even J7s. I think that half or more of those combos will fold to a turn double barrel. Even AJ might fold to a turn double barrel bluff at some frequency.

It is very unlikely that Villain's range hit the Kd on the turn. Maybe he could have 1 combo KQss, but there is always a nonzero chance that he CR flop with KQss. He could also have 2-9 combos of KJ (depends on whether we give him all offsuit combos of KJ), but for the sake of discussion, let's give him 6 combos of KJ.

Assuming that Hero's read on Villain is fairly accurate (in other words, we don't expect Villain to have AK when he open-raises for 3bbs), only 7 combos in Villain's range improves when the Kd hits the turn. How many combos in Villain's range hate to see the Kd on the turn?

AJ (12 combos), QJ (12 combos), JTs (3 combos), J9s (3 combos), J7s (1 combo in case he is feeling frisky enough to play J7s occasionally given that he open-raised J8s previously), A8s (3 combos), T8s (3 combos), 98s (3 combos), 87s (3 combos)...

Villain has 7 combos of hands (KQss and KJ) that will not ever fold turn. Villain probably have 42+ combos of hands that would hate to see the Kd on the turn.Does that mean that he is going to fold all 42+ combos if we double barrel bluff turn? No. Will it be a profitable double barrel bluff even if he folds just 40% (18 combos) of them? ABSOLUTELY.

FWIW, I think that Villain is going to fold more than 18 combos. Most likely, he folds 60%+ (24+ combos) of his made hand combos that don't improve on the turn

You realize that all these scenarios involve hitting on the river, which won't happen 2 out of 3 times? Of course hitting the effective nuts is the best way to win, but if you check behind you are losing 2 out of 3 pretty much automatically.

FYI to all the people who keep saying that Hero has 34% equity here...Hero has 65dd on J84ssdKdd board. In other words, Hero has a 12-out draw for 26% equity against most 1 pair hands.

Just a minor quibble. Let's say it together...Hero has 26% equity on the turn...NOT 34% equity.