You probably should have known the answer to what happens if you get check raised before you bet. Seeing how this is the worst 2 pair you can have in this situation (as you're not betting QT on flop), you likely should have checked back turn to easily call blank rivers. If V checks a blank river then you can put in a value bet. As played I think you gotta fold. Sometimes you're laying down the best hand but that's ok.

I call this part of the mind F—- of exploitative poker. AvoidThe9to5 years ago discussed minimal vs maximal exploitative strategy. Essentially, minimal is a conservative deviation designed to mostly play against competent players who may have a flaw you can occasionally take advantage of, or a pool of players and their overall tendencies. Maximal is when anyone with a functioning brain that has any clue of what’s going on at the poker table knows what you’re doing. To use GG as a guinea pig, his 0 PFR strat UTG is designed to exploit people who like to raise limps but not three bet raises, because now he will have a range of hands that can 3 bet at a high frequency for great profit. But if you’re paying attention, you’d just limp along with things like 77 or A5s and only raise when you’re at the top end of your holdings.

I think here, folding is going to be closer to minimally exploitative. We know this spot is going to be dramatically under bluffed, and even good players aren’t going to do this with a bluff all that often against a range of hands that include tons of sets, two pairs, and Broadway. Which means that there’s definitely merit to making this a “standard” decision against an unknown in these smaller games.


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Lots of interesting discussion. Curious spot.


I don't know how to use spoilers, but here are the results. I decided to fold. I showed the Ace and offered a nickel if he could show a bluff. He shows us... QTo.

I wouldn't be too upset with the results. Obviously QT can be part of the range that he is doing this with, but overall methinks it is a pretty small part of that range and most of that range is still crushing us (I'll let someone else do the combomath).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Here's why his range is pair heavy and not gutshot heavy.

For starters he's flatting from the SB, an inherently poor play, which means his understanding of relative hand strength is probably pretty low. People who cant read opponents tend to get value owned with pairs a lot.

We know he doesnt flop a set because this is too good of a spot to x/r on the flop. It's unlikely many players would chase a mere gutshot draw on a board like this either. While chasing 4 outers is common practice among absolute fish, you said he's competently chip shuffling and young and a potential reg from what little you know so we can kinda sorta reduce how often he's just being a station. Plus we cant just go around being all MUBS'y on any given runnout.

So if we're leaning towards pairs being the bulk of someone's "keep em honest" range then what improves on the turn? Because it certainly doesnt look like a bluff. He played weak passive pre, weak passive post, and then hoorah on the turn. So what Q's help him on the turn the he was willing to call the flop with in the face of an ace out there? Q's that include clubs or Q's that include 1 pair to go with it. Card removal and the unlikelihood someone just flats pre and post with AQ says his likely holding is in the QT 2 pair camp.

I like how everyone ignored the weak call from the SB and the fact that someone calling with a big hand preflop and then on a fairly wet flop almost never happens in small stakes live. If this was an old guy and not a young guy I would be much more likely to fold.

V does have more combos of KJ than QT but the average person is more likely to continue with middle pair compared to a non overcard gutshot on an A high flushboard so I would weigh the hands more equally. Next I am going to assume that in lol live casino land at the lowest stakes someone who called in the sb is not some sick expert and more likely to be massively high/drunk/bad.

I think you guys assume too much based on, probably under 30 and doesn't fumble his chips.

FWIW pokersnowie, at least, flats late opens from the sb with a few hands. KJo and K9s types.

I think ruling out 2nd tier hands like TT and AQ based on a small blind flat from a total unknown at 1/3 is not a good idea.

But snowie is a beast. Just because Durrr or Polk would do it doesnt mean we should expect the competition at 1/3 to do it, at least not for the same reasons. Can you assign snowie a hand and see what it does precisely with QT in this spot?

Grunch: Small hand small pot.

Flop bet is fine. I'd prefer checking the turn and checking the river if unimproved.

As played, easy fold.

As a default, over-folding to the xr at these stakes seems fine - but this line is strange and close enough, that folding does seem a bit premature.

Flatting 5x from the sb can mostly be assumed to be bad, so we need to make some decisions on how we range villain before we decide on our turn strategy.

I think we need to give villain ak, aj, other random ax, club draw with any broadway. Or the type of hands we expect a bad LAG to play. (To a lessr extent, how bad players play ak) I agree that At and 44 should be discounted.

So once we give villain this kind of range it should be ok to call and probably give up on any k, q, j or t. And not sure if we fold any other clubs.

Edit: saw reveal and qto fits the profile of bad lag - i would add that we should not fold certain 2p combos against weaker players as a rule precisely because they will show up with trashy dominated 2p in bad spots, and this hand would be a good example of why. Not trying to be harsh, this is a somewhat tough spot without stronger reads and you did well to learn villain's hand afterwards.

The preflop raise is 0.01 +EV, his call his significantly bad. Flop cbet obv standard, and for his spot with QT its a 96% call, 4% raise. Our barrell on the turn has positive expectation over checking behind, his raise is really bad. It says it would be a massive blunder for us to do anything but fold.

interesting, thanks for that. I guess because I know a turn raise is bad it's what motivates me to never fold xD

Turn raise is bad with QT. I didn't play around with qualifiers to see where a raise becomes +EV, but I may at some point.

A4 calling that raise is a big loser, and any raise much more so. Against the snowie raising range, of course.