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Check raise all in bluff the flop after spotting weakness Check raise all in bluff the flop after spotting weakness

10-18-2020 , 11:55 AM
Hero (2400): Very aggressive image. Has been seen making a lot of aggressives moves in the past. I'm a regular at this game, usually a winning player
V1 (1200): Standard ABC player. Not much reads of him except I have seen him fold in big spots in the past when he doesn't have a really strong hand.
V2 (800): Owner of the poker room. Good player. Really aggressive, we tend to level ourselves when we play together.
v3 (500): No reads

OTH
Blinds 5-5

Hero is in MP, has QQ and raises to 30 (standard raise).

V3 raises UTG to 15, V1 3 bets to 50, v2 calls. I'm in the BB with QQ and raise to 225. V3 folds, V1 thinks for about 1 minute and decides to flat call, V2 also calls.

Flop (695): A9T

Hero checks since this is a terrible board for me and I have 2 players behind me. V1 thinks for a moment and bets out 100, V2 quickly calls. Hero?

I know my hand is not good at this spot, but I think that small bet on the flop shows a lot of weakness from V1. I'm putting him on Ax, Tx, 9x or some kind of weak draw. I don't think he has AK since he might have shove me pre flop. 2 pair or a set is not likely since the bet is too small in a draw heavy board and the pot is already too big.

V2 flat calls indicates me he also doesn't have a very strong hand, he may have straight/flush draw or a weak pair.

I decided that V1 is not going to call me off with Ax (unless he has AK) and V2 is not that strong in this spot. I decided to check raise all in and hope my read is good

Thoughts on this?

Last edited by luz4ggro; 10-18-2020 at 12:06 PM.
Check raise all in bluff the flop after spotting weakness Quote
10-18-2020 , 12:26 PM
If they are weak tight, nice play. I would have snap called you with TP since your line says you have at best a FD.
Check raise all in bluff the flop after spotting weakness Quote
10-18-2020 , 12:33 PM
Your preflop action seems to be mixing two hands.

Assuming the second part is correct I think it's probably a mistake but it is very dependent on your metagame with V2. The risk that V1 gets involved is small. It is unlikely he would bet a big hand this way with multiple opponents and a somewhat wet board. Plus he has the risk that V2 calls behind him so he isn't likely to call with his moderate hands that read you for a draw.

V2 is the question here and it's hard to evaluate. The weird thing here is what does a very aggressive good player flat with twice preflop, including a flat to 1/4 of his stack? I'm finding it hard to put together any coherent range. I'm guessing though that it's heavy with AQ/AJs that are going to call your shove figuring you for a draw or bluff more then a good hand.
Check raise all in bluff the flop after spotting weakness Quote
10-18-2020 , 06:32 PM
Given your image, low SPR and pot odds versus your flop shove, I think villains would call off their draws and Ax hands.
It's not unreasonable for V1 to even have AA here
Check raise all in bluff the flop after spotting weakness Quote
10-18-2020 , 10:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by luz4ggro
Hero (2400): Very aggressive image. Has been seen making a lot of aggressives moves in the past. I'm a regular at this game, usually a winning player
V1 (1200): Standard ABC player. Not much reads of him except I have seen him fold in big spots in the past when he doesn't have a really strong hand.
V2 (800): Owner of the poker room. Good player. Really aggressive, we tend to level ourselves when we play together.
v3 (500): No reads

OTH
Blinds 5-5

Hero is in MP, has QQ and raises to 30 (standard raise).

V3 raises UTG to 15, V1 3 bets to 50, v2 calls. I'm in the BB with QQ and raise to 225. V3 folds, V1 thinks for about 1 minute and decides to flat call, V2 also calls.

Flop (695): A9T

Hero checks since this is a terrible board for me and I have 2 players behind me. V1 thinks for a moment and bets out 100, V2 quickly calls. Hero?

I know my hand is not good at this spot, but I think that small bet on the flop shows a lot of weakness from V1. I'm putting him on Ax, Tx, 9x or some kind of weak draw. I don't think he has AK since he might have shove me pre flop. 2 pair or a set is not likely since the bet is too small in a draw heavy board and the pot is already too big.

V2 flat calls indicates me he also doesn't have a very strong hand, he may have straight/flush draw or a weak pair.

I decided that V1 is not going to call me off with Ax (unless he has AK) and V2 is not that strong in this spot. I decided to check raise all in and hope my read is good

Thoughts on this?
Bolded relevant quotes. You're considering it from your perspective, consider this from the other V's perspectives - [LIST][*]If the board is too scary for them to bet small with 2p or sets, what are you c/r'ing with? What would you check hoping they don't check behind and get a free card?
[*]There are 2 other opponents on a board that should smash all ranges in a 3bet pot. V1's small bet isn't weak. Its feels like a bet to induce or keep the other Vs tagging along.
[*]V2's call might be weak, but V2 has also invested almost half his stack. Once he calls the flop bet its unlikely he's folding.
[*]Once you shove, V1 has to call $875 to win $1770 so he needs 33%, but if he thinks V2 is calling he actually only needs 28% (even if he doesn't know the exact math, he intuits this in some way). What hands call a pre-flop 3bet, bet a multiway flop on a board heavy with draws, but don't have enough estimated equity to continue?
Check raise all in bluff the flop after spotting weakness Quote
10-19-2020 , 02:17 AM
Why would they call such a big % of their stack pre and then b/f Ax?
Check raise all in bluff the flop after spotting weakness Quote
10-20-2020 , 02:03 AM
Alright so V2 is not a good player, He just called a 3bet and 4bet OOP, he's awful. It probably doesnt matter what you think your image is anyway, live fish dont give a crap about your image. You being good doesnt remove the 4 outer they're chasing in their mind.

On to the hand; I'm not a fan of running 0 EQ bluffs live. I'll ship my NFD's all day but QQ? Pass, better spots to be had. This isnt like a cutthroat online game where you have to take every edge given. He opened UTG and debated calling a 4bet. It's not like he has A2 here. He might be as light as AJs but realistically it's probably AK. Most live players dont 4bet anything but KK/AA. In fact a lot of them flat call AK to a single PFR just to make sure they see a flop before putting in too much money.

I feel his bet represents his comfort zone. He might not even be used to putting in more than $100 on the flop. He's the kind of player who calls off $400/$500 of his starting stack preflop then check folds the flop unimproved. Chances are pretty damn good he has an ace and I doubt he plans on folding.
Check raise all in bluff the flop after spotting weakness Quote
11-11-2020 , 11:14 PM
This is how the hand finished

Spoiler:
V1 tanked for a good time and folded, V2 instant folded. I show face up my QQ and V1 goes on tilt, he takes his hand out of the muck and shows he had KK


After that play I got hero called a lot from weak hands, so I guess this image plays on my advantage in certain spots
Check raise all in bluff the flop after spotting weakness Quote
11-12-2020 , 12:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by luz4ggro
This is how the hand finished

Spoiler:
V1 tanked for a good time and folded, V2 instant folded. I show face up my QQ and V1 goes on tilt, he takes his hand out of the muck and shows he had KK


After that play I got hero called a lot from weak hands, so I guess this image plays on my advantage in certain spots

Seems like you had a solid live read on the situation.
(+)EV exploit in a (-)EV theoretical situation. Bravo.
Check raise all in bluff the flop after spotting weakness Quote
11-12-2020 , 03:00 PM
I remember posting some kind of similar hands like this. The issue I have (and got called out on) is that the analysis is so meta-game and dependent on your reads. I have a difficult time inputting since I wasn't there, and don't know your opponents.

Here are my thoughts on the hand. Despite the fact that both opponents appear to play mega bad preflop. I would think that this is a losing line overall. Let's consider your opponents range; a 4-bet calling range at most $2-5 games still looks like AQs+, AK, JJ+ at MOST. Good chance it is even narrower. Your bluff is targeting KK specifically, and hoping that AQ can find a fold. I would consider this a suicide bluff in my games. Sure it can work when your opponents both have KK-JJ, but getting an A to fold is unlikely.
Check raise all in bluff the flop after spotting weakness Quote
11-12-2020 , 03:02 PM
Just saw results: Good hand, that's great that you got it through. Sometimes a live read is worth more than the analysis, but I can't imagine that this is anything but spew. Likely your opponents had exactly KK and JJ. Very rare combinations when compared to the opportunity for an A.
Check raise all in bluff the flop after spotting weakness Quote
11-12-2020 , 03:35 PM
cray crazy the V mucked fished to reveal KK.
i would never have revealed that and im not sure i would have sulked long about that fold A is so within your range and consistent with the action
Check raise all in bluff the flop after spotting weakness Quote
12-03-2020 , 01:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by javi
Alright so V2 is not a good player, He just called a 3bet and 4bet OOP, he's awful. It probably doesnt matter what you think your image is anyway, live fish dont give a crap about your image.
I laughed harded than I should when I read this quote you are right about that
Check raise all in bluff the flop after spotting weakness Quote
12-03-2020 , 02:10 PM
The small bet shouldn't signify weakness in theory since the SPR is so low.

Looks like it did here though, good job on picking up on that.
Check raise all in bluff the flop after spotting weakness Quote

      
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