Can you, or should you, ever fold the nuts? Sounds nuts right? I had a spot last night where I think the villain should have folded his nutted hand.

Live $1/$3 and it folds to me on the button. I make it $15 with Q3 spades and BB calls. Flop is AsKhTd and villain check calls my $19 c-bet.

Turn is Js and villain leads for $50. Confident he has a Q and that we therefore both have the nuts at this stage, but I also have a flush draw, I jam for $520 effective. He calls off his last $470 with the naked Qc and I am free-rolling the flush. The 9 spades on the river won me the $1094 pot. ($15 rake; yep, rake is horrible at Crown, Melbourne).

I've done the math, and believe his EV in making the call, is -$32.4, assuming I have this exact hand. But obviously I could do this with any Queen, and certainly with the Q of spades with the second card not being a spade.

So, back to the original question. Should the villain have folded to my jam on the turn, even though he had the nuts at that stage? Could you fold the nuts in this spot? Is it ever right, in a cash game, to fold the nuts?

In PLO, it's often appropriate to fold the nuts, especially OTF with no redraw. In NLHE it can be appropriate, but it would be very rare to find an example where it is correct against a range. Like your hand example, you'd need a very small pot and huge effective stacks.

His bet-c is only slightly worse than your shove, size down ffs.

Yes, of course you can find correct folds in any spot where you have <50% and are facing a sizing that moves the calling needle below 0ev.

I shoved because I didn't think he would be able to fold his nut straight, which turned out to be the case. I raise any less on the turn and it is mathematically right for him to call, and then I miss value when the flush comes on the river and he potentially can fold. Or, he does fold his hand on the turn and I take the pot that would otherwise be chopped 4 times in every 5 occasions. No need to "size down ffs", this is exactly the spot to size up ffs.

Your sizing nearly always loses everything but the Q and sometimes loses the Q as well. I won't break it down beyond that.

Yes, your shove got max value against the other nuts when you were free-rolling.

I assume Ammnaplan is suggesting you size down so you can get action from non nut hands here.

As said in OP, "...confident he has a Q".

He has a Q there about 99.9% of the time and with that bet you WANT to lose the Q. You win a pot instead of having an 80% chance of chopping. The bet sizing is great.

In poker because of a pot, both players can make the right play on a street. You would have had to show him your hand to get him to fold if he could actually to the math at the table. If there was even a small chance of you not having a FD, he should call. Poker is usually about playing a range, not a specific hand.

“...and I am free-rolling the flush.” Not completely.

In Button vs. BB battles calling ranges can get wide, including connectors and one-gappers. When you put V on the Q those connectors and one-gappers include every card on the board, giving V 2 pair and a redraw to a boat.

Did you consider this possibility before shoving?

Online with high rake% and high/no cap there are some situations where I fold the nut straight on a 4 straight board simply to dodge the rake. Situation would be a tiny pot with big stacks behind, no betting occurs postflop until 4 to a straight is on board (usually broadway) and V shoves 200bb. I know we both have the nuts (because I used to call these idiots) but the 20bb rake isn't worth paying for a chop of the 10bb in the pot before the shove.

I don't think this ever happens live though, certainly I never play in uncapped games or rake above 5%.

This isn't PLO, v cannot have a straight and two pair at the same time.



Shove is very standard. Well played except for preflop sizing.

As for folding the nuts, post your math and then let the others come in and argue about it.

(Pre-flop sizing is a reflection of the typical open sizes down here).

Obviously I thought this was a particularly unusual spot so have spent a fair amount of time mulling it over. A couple of people have suggested I'm folding out two pairs or sets, but I really can't see villain flatting a premium pair pre-flop after a button open, or flatting AK or AT, and then check calling the flop and leading the turn with 4 to a straight on board. I guess there is a small possibility he does this with KT.

As mentioned, I was confident villain had a Q and as not mentioned, this was consistent with how he had played a previous hand when he also had a Q but this time on a AJ9T..8 where he led for $75 on the river into a $105 pot, having check called the turn.

My math calc was...

I'm 20% to win which means 1 in 5 he loses and 4 in 5 he chops. So...
Pot is (15 X 2) + (19 X 2) + (520 X 2) - 15 (rake) + 1 (SB) = $1094 so when he chops, he "wins" $547
EV = 547 X 80% (% of times he chops)
= 437.6
Turn bet was $50 from him, jam from me (520 effective), so he has to call off an additional 470
Therefore expected value is $437.60 - $470 = (-$32.40)

Feel free to flame away...😜

Practically, no.

But theoretically, I believe you could construct a hand where you had the nuts (top set), and the other player had more equity than you, say OESFD, and a sufficient chip stack that if he jammed big enough, that calling would not be cEV, but he'd have to be playing face up.

This can never happen with top set, unless someone flipped over the muck and exposed a bunch of bricks and boat outs.

Without dead cards, it can only happen with straights.

7TJ

89 is a dog to KQ

89 is even a dog to both KQ and 77 when both are in play.

Board: TcJc7s
Equity Win Tie
UTG 27.91% 27.91% 0.00% { 9c8c }
UTG+1 34.44% 34.44% 0.00% { 7h7c }
UTG+2 37.65% 37.65% 0.00% { KcQc }

Ok, on your example, is that because they 98cc and KQcc counter some of each others outs. Is KcQc marginally ahead on its own vs TT. I had a vague recollection that an OESFD had like a 50% plus chance to come in, but perhaps that's against top pair, and here you have a chance to turn boat.

The chance to boat is a pretty big deal. Some of KQ's outs also make a boat, and TT has a re-draw if KQ hits a flush or straight on the turn.

Board: 7sTcJc
Equity Win Tie
UTG 42.12% 42.12% 0.00% { KcQc }
UTG+1 57.88% 57.88% 0.00% { TT }

Thanks for running.

Let's say you're both deep-stacked and it's very likely you and your opponent have the same straight. You bet he raises you re-raise and he goes all in

On a flop like
7c 6d 5d

If you don't have blockers to the redraw and you know he would never go all in without the nuts w/ the redraw or blockers you could fold it.

^ that's some extreme species of Nit and an extreme read, but yes, theoretically that's true.

They will only rake $1 in a split in this case, the SB, as you cannot lose money in a split.

Fair point well made. 😁

Paging cAmmAndo to tell how he folded AQ on KJ10 flop once. He was 'getting freerolled' by Ah Qh with flopped a royal draw.

+1 (I also *love* the turn shove FWIW)

I think it's PNLHE that also illustrates an example where folding the nuts is correct, and as G says it all has to do with small pot / huge stacks behind.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I don't get any of the complaints because I think $15 pre is perfectly standard and the shove is perfect too. It's a case of when we shove we really don't care if he folds or calls - we're free rolling if he calls and we avoid the chop if he folds. Sure we're not 100% always free rolling but if he's ever calling with 2 pair or a set I want to shove even more.

I had this exact spot (though not deep enough that V probably should have folded) and realized just after I bet "normal" on the turn that I should have shoved. It's haunted me for years.