Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
can i value bet this river? 5-10 nl live deep can i value bet this river? 5-10 nl live deep

04-07-2011 , 03:28 PM
5-10 nl at Motor City in Detroit. Villain #1 has a reputation for being tight/solid, but recently I've noticed he's started adjusting to this game and me properly and has been opening up his game more than usual, but only when he has position. He always tries to get position on hero fwiw. He's a late 20's caucasian male if that matters. Villain #2 is a bad player, very loose, makes goofy plays, doesn't understand bet sizing, doesn't understand position, has been running over the table and showing the goods most of the time. Is known for making very kooky plays every now and then. Hero is SLAG, and doesn't get any respect at the table for ever holding a hand (he doesn't deserve any respect fwiw). He's a mid 40's caucasian male if that matters. Recently I doubled thru villain #1 with TPTK vs his TP flush draw and my hand held up, don't think it put him on tilt though, he's too solid for that.

Hero has 5K to start hand, villain's both cover.

Preflop, 3 limpers to hero on button with 44, SB completes, Villain #1 makes it 115 from BB, 3 callers including Villain #2 in MP, hero calls.

Pot is 585

Flop is 765

Checked to hero

Hero bets 300, villain #1 calls, folds to villain #2 who calls.

Pot is 1485

Turn is 10

Checked to hero, hero bets 850, villain #1 insta mucks, villain #2 tanks and calls.

Pot is 3185

River is 8

Villain #1 checks. Hero?

If you bet, how much, and what do you do if villain #1 check raises? Also, thoughts on the hand prior to the river would be appreciated.
can i value bet this river? 5-10 nl live deep Quote
04-07-2011 , 04:33 PM
Hmmm. I'm 50/50 to bet that flop. Once you bet though and villain 1 called I'd say he probably has you beat and is check calling for pot control so I'd check the turn. As played I'd bet 1800ish on river and fold to a shove... unless I know villain well enough to know he'd check his backdoor flush hoping you'd bet or he would not call with two pair...then I'd just check behind.
can i value bet this river? 5-10 nl live deep Quote
04-07-2011 , 04:55 PM
wait.....is villian #1 or #2 still in the hand on the river? it matters i think.

most players are playing pretty straightforwardly on the river in a big pot OOP. the risk of a river c/r is pretty low.

i think i bet smallish like 1250 (/fold) to try to called by 2 pair or a slow played set (? not likely).

re streets prior to river: flop bet is fine, but you got called in 2 spots. you have kind of a crappy draw. i think i check behind on the turn. but maybe that's too weak.
can i value bet this river? 5-10 nl live deep Quote
04-07-2011 , 06:13 PM
i mean what hands does he get to the river with that beat us that he raises pre and c/c's twice with. 99 and maybe a floated AdQd, AdKd, AdJd that floated and picked up more equity on the turn.

I think this is clear bet ~1300-1400.

and just check the turn.
can i value bet this river? 5-10 nl live deep Quote
04-07-2011 , 06:28 PM
Pre- yes.

Flop- borderline (you can't call a c/r and you may have a ton of equity).

Turn- CHECK.

River- who is left in the hand? Bet (not huge)/fold against either probably.
can i value bet this river? 5-10 nl live deep Quote
04-07-2011 , 10:37 PM
Sorry for the confusion guys. Villain #1 folded the turn, villain #2 checked the river.
can i value bet this river? 5-10 nl live deep Quote
04-07-2011 , 10:45 PM
I want to know your guys reasoning for checking the turn. The turn card is a relative blank, we've shown strength on the flop and a turn bet shows even more strength, makes it look like I'm trying to protect two pair/set, and even if villains think I'm FOS, the chance of a turn c/r are pretty small, and even though it would suck, I would be fine laying it down on the turn to a c/r. I feel like if I hit on the river I'm either getting no value or am gonna get value owned by villains.

As far as the river, I've always been of the philosophy that if you don't know how to react to a c/r, then you shouldn't bet in the first place. And honestly, I had no idea what I was going to do if villain #2 c/r'ed the river. I know I'm ahead the vast majority of the time and that there are some hands that he calls that I beat, but I just was confused as to where he was in the hand and what hands he could potentially c/r me with. He is capable of making that move, even if it is with goofy reason. He's one of those villains that doesn't necessarily have a plan, but just does whatever "instincts" tell him to.
can i value bet this river? 5-10 nl live deep Quote
04-08-2011 , 01:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rbenuck4
I want to know your guys reasoning for checking the turn. The turn card is a relative blank, we've shown strength on the flop and a turn bet shows even more strength, makes it look like I'm trying to protect two pair/set, and even if villains think I'm FOS, the chance of a turn c/r are pretty small, and even though it would suck, I would be fine laying it down on the turn to a c/r. I feel like if I hit on the river I'm either getting no value or am gonna get value owned by villains.

As far as the river, I've always been of the philosophy that if you don't know how to react to a c/r, then you shouldn't bet in the first place. And honestly, I had no idea what I was going to do if villain #2 c/r'ed the river. I know I'm ahead the vast majority of the time and that there are some hands that he calls that I beat, but I just was confused as to where he was in the hand and what hands he could potentially c/r me with. He is capable of making that move, even if it is with goofy reason. He's one of those villains that doesn't necessarily have a plan, but just does whatever "instincts" tell him to.
Check turn because it's a brick and no1 gives you credit for ever having a hand (per your op). You took a stab on the flop (which was marginal, but fine) and got called in 2 places. It's very likely at least one of them has an overpair+ and is just calling you down because stacks are too deep to do anything else. It's also very possible one of them flopped a big hand and was just waiting to c/r the turn instead of the flop in the name of variance or whatever. You have 8 outs against a set and 10 against an overpair or 2 pair. Take the free card...

Regarding river: we don't know villain and there are probably some who will c/r as a bluff. 99% of players at this level will not though, so bet/fold is standard.

***Sorry if the tone of this post is ****ty, I have a ringing headache, am doing my taxes (at least I'm supposed to be doing them), and my horse just got voted off American Idol fml.
can i value bet this river? 5-10 nl live deep Quote
04-08-2011 , 02:00 AM
Since when can horses sing?
can i value bet this river? 5-10 nl live deep Quote
04-08-2011 , 04:01 AM
I'd check. You're hand isn't that great and he could have hit a runner runner on you. Maybe 109 as well

And why do you want to bet/fold the river?! Bet 1800$ and fold to a raise?! Are we ahead or not. Are we just guessing at a bet. Are we being greedy. The truth is we don't have much info to go on, and there are a lot of hands that pick up equity on the turn. If our best plan is to bet/fold I think we outta check.

Last edited by fishtofinaltable; 04-08-2011 at 04:10 AM.
can i value bet this river? 5-10 nl live deep Quote
04-08-2011 , 05:17 AM
Bet / folding can get value from a lot of hands. He might call with 2 pair or a set cuz he doesn't believe hero. When he c/r's , we are beat 99% and can fold. Why would we check behind when we are more likely than not to have the best hand.
Semi bluff, semi bluff, then check back when we finally get there and he checks? No.
can i value bet this river? 5-10 nl live deep Quote
04-08-2011 , 05:37 AM
When we were semi bluffing, there wasnt a flush on the board.

Also I don't think we are beat 99% of the time. It's a good spot to bluff (not to mention an easy one if you have any respect for villains play.)

Last edited by fishtofinaltable; 04-08-2011 at 05:42 AM.
can i value bet this river? 5-10 nl live deep Quote
04-08-2011 , 06:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DGAF
Check turn because it's a brick and no1 gives you credit for ever having a hand (per your op). You took a stab on the flop (which was marginal, but fine) and got called in 2 places. It's very likely at least one of them has an overpair+ and is just calling you down because stacks are too deep to do anything else. It's also very possible one of them flopped a big hand and was just waiting to c/r the turn instead of the flop in the name of variance or whatever. You have 8 outs against a set and 10 against an overpair or 2 pair. Take the free card...

Regarding river: we don't know villain and there are probably some who will c/r as a bluff. 99% of players at this level will not though, so bet/fold is standard.
.
QFT. Bet $1800 and fold to a CR.
can i value bet this river? 5-10 nl live deep Quote

      
m