Nailed it. Once the betting goes beyond a 3! and stacks start to go in, the whole range concept flies out the window especially on later streets and we have to consider non-math factors like "is V able to spaz GII without the absolute nuts?" and "how drunk is he?" much more heavily compared to pure math, especially at low stakes.

To give the simplest example:

If betting with deep stacks goes to 4! preflop, do we still assign a 33.3% probabilities to QQ/KK/AA of a villain's range at low stakes? I don't think so and that will skew our realized EV from theoretical EV, since the probabilities are more likely to be 20%/30%/50%


After reading results, I don't think we can really say "here's the lesson learned". I would also avoid trying to get stereotypical reads on villains until we actually see how they play and what hole cards they show down. So your initial read was not correct about her being a reg, and the V ended up being a typical OWC with the shortfalls of that style of play.

I have no idea what she was thinking playing that hand in that way and by trying to analyze it, I feel like I would just end up dumber and leveling myself into bad decisions later in similar situations.

The only thing more you would have gotten out of raising the river is not having to show your hand

Wowzers. Glad you posted this...what a strange line and yes I think she folds to a river shove so you didn't lose any value. My guess is that I
will remember this hand at some point in the near future and get stacked because of it. Thanks!

I would have just called the original $50 bet.

After reading results, I do not believe she would have folded to your shove. But, you had no idea of knowing what you were dealing with.

Are you certain that the Ace of spades was on the board? At one point, you gave her AsKs as a possible holding. If the As isn't on board, and the 8 was a spade instead, the situation on the river is much worse for you.

You have no faith in her, then? You think she calls on a paired, flush board with KK? I really hope she is not that bad, whoever she is! (And, no she is not I )

I mean, given that she bet/3b the river with a sizing that doesn't appear to be a bluff, I'm going to assume she would just sigh and stack off. I don't think I've ever seen a bet/3b/fold line on any street in all my years playing LLSNL.

Yes, I'm certain the A was on the board.

My brother also plays, and we've gotten into the habit of texting any hands we're involved in to each other in real time because neither of us gets to play that often.* After each hand I'm involved in I sit back and quickly text it to him, including weird or fun hands that I'm not involved in. It ends up being a really reliable HH.

Errors like me putting 9 into V's hand (when I hold it) for ranging is me making an error in data input to PokerCruncher, not the hand history. (PokerCruncher is going to ignore that anyway).

* Let me emphasize that we do NOT do that on the extremely rare occasions that we get to play together. We live three states away from each other, and we text each other real time HH's whenever one of us sits down.

I’m not at all convinced she wouldn’t have called a shove. Think about how the hand played so far. Very possibly would have called because she’s pot committed.

This.

OP: 'poker cruncher' is not going to help you much with this kind of decision.

Apart from Villain's initial preflop 3bet sizing, everything else about her sounds competent. Unless she misread her cards, when she leads pot then 4bets the river it is almost always nutted i.e not a weaker flush.

I tried to be subtle about it but you don't seem to be listening so I may as well just come right out and say it...

5bet jamming this river for value with the 2nd nut flush against this opponent sounds cray cray.

She’s the fish??? Everyone on here advocated for folding the best hand in a huge pot. 90+% of you ship her the pot and she’s The fish? How about NH lady. I’m a nit and you would have outplayed me. I like this site, it’s helped my game and my wintate but seriously, the vast, Vast majority of people on here are MUBSy nut peddlers. Nearly every piece of commentary is ‘why you should fold this hand’. This hand is a perfect example. Get a grip folks. This was a shove the whole way AINEC.

Whoa there kid. I never advocated folding here. My whole analysis (and many others) were simply the merit of shoving versus flatting her 3! on the river and which was higher long term EV. I still think flatting is correct, but the hand showed me that I need to never exclude complete spazz from ranges no matter who or what the sitch.

Lost of players don't know what pot-committed means. They have money in front of them and they want to keep it or get more. It almost seems as if she had some read on V, but got unlucky that he hit the flush. Her raise on the river was actually a pretty good bluff. Had she bet bigger on the river, I would have advocated a fold.

As stated by others, this hand is almost never, ever going to happen again, and I'm 99% confident she would have folded to a jam. Shoving here, in the long run, is going to lose you a ton of money because most players who 3bet here have you crushed.

Disclaimer: I haven't read the spoiler yet.

To me, it seems like you played the hand fine. Raising preflop from MP w/ Q9s is too loose in my opinion, but w/e. I would size it more than $6 though, that really doesn't accomplish much. I would raise $10 or $12 w/ all my hands.

I'm confused on the river. She led $50 and you raised $80? Shouldn't you be required to raise at least double the bet? Do you mean $80 more? So based on that, I can't really follow the exact pot odds you are getting, but if this is just a min raising war then I don't see how you can fold for such a small amount. I don't know how much you have behind but I don't think going all in is a good idea when the action goes like this. Also, if you meant to min re-raise the river don't, size ^ to get as much value from an ace as possible.

I had the same problem comprehending but assumed there is some kind of small raise by Hero and some smallish 3-bet by villain.

As for the hand, I'm folding to the initial bet never, raising sometimes, and folding to the 3-bet fewertimes.

There are problems with folding to the 3 which include (1) villain overvaluing their hand i.e. top trips, and (2) "oh, I didn't even see the flush." It's also hard to put villain on a hand that is consistent with a preflop minraise and the postflop play other than AA and I'd be reluctant to put exactly 1 combo in anyone's range.

You just call the original river bet. And win a smaller pot.

The fact that you called and won is... Idk just lucky and her being a clown.

I mean i guess nice win, but still wtf went on there lol. Really odd by her.

This is amazing. Like i have been known this game for sometime now. Can discounted coupons be of any use here :P i have some with me which can be really handy, Carousel Check Coupons .