C or B turn? 1-2
02-15-2015
, 04:56 PM
Hero K
K
Notes: 2 villains described as loose passive are loose passive; they are playing their draws passively up to this point and are only betting w made hands.
Aggro lady has been seen straddling button and then raising when 3 players limped to $15 w A9o, hand played out as fish donks under half on a J99r flop and she straight ships $100 on top, fish calls and gets stacked. What we can derive from this is lady is likely fast playing made hands, opening too wide, and does not understand ranges. Also have seen her raise AJo.
Hero raises KK to $10 from MP, Loose lady on left calls $10, Loose passive old man calls $10 on button, Loose passive BB calls...
Fl Q
85 pot = $40(take out rake if wanted)
BB checks, Hero bets $30, lady calls $30, 2 villains fold.
Turn J pot = $100(-$7 for rake)
Hero?
At this point, we know the lady is aggressive preflop and fast plays her strong hands post flop. We don't know whether or not she bluffs without a made hand(but I think we can make that assumption; please correct me if I am wrong.)
Benefits of checking: we get value from her missed draws she decides to turn into bluffs. We protect our equity in the pot when behind flushes that get there, meaning we get value from the hands that may fold to a second barrel by bluff catching/have a chance to catch up when behind.
Benefits of betting: we get value from top pair because lady is definitely irrational enough to call down w a hand like KQ/AQ, maybe even JT that picks up a pair+gutter; I find that a typical live player looks for any excuse to call so they can blame their misfortune on "luck". Also, we lose value from top pair+ that may not bet the turn when checked too.
Downsides of checking: lady may not turn draws into bluff on turn; lady may check weak top pairs. Lady may make bluffs, but size them incredibly small, thus the value we get from them is not outweighed by the value we get from betting and getting called by top pair.
Downsides of betting: Miss value from draws she may turn into bluffs. May get raised off of our equity when she has a FD that gets there on the turn.
My conclusion: I think betting the turn is better vs an unthinking player w so many unknown variables; I think we need to have more conclusive evidence for checking being better than betting. Also, KK against the general population is just too high up in our range to be checking here; there are so many worse hands that can call and overall just better hands we can be checking here OOP on the turn(namely KQ, QT)
Vs a good/thinking player or a player who is uber aggressive, then checking the turn actually becomes pretty reasonable. Mainly, because we arent getting value from top pair vs a good player, and we actually want to protect our equity/bluff catch.
Also of point to mention: I think when we do not hold the K, we have much less of an incentive to check the turn because we have less equity to protect/more single spades that can call...
What is your opinion?
KNotes: 2 villains described as loose passive are loose passive; they are playing their draws passively up to this point and are only betting w made hands.
Aggro lady has been seen straddling button and then raising when 3 players limped to $15 w A9o, hand played out as fish donks under half on a J99r flop and she straight ships $100 on top, fish calls and gets stacked. What we can derive from this is lady is likely fast playing made hands, opening too wide, and does not understand ranges. Also have seen her raise AJo.
Hero raises K
K to $10 from MP, Loose lady on left calls $10, Loose passive old man calls $10 on button, Loose passive BB calls...Fl Q
85 pot = $40(take out rake if wanted)BB checks, Hero bets $30, lady calls $30, 2 villains fold.
Turn J
pot = $100(-$7 for rake)Hero?
At this point, we know the lady is aggressive preflop and fast plays her strong hands post flop. We don't know whether or not she bluffs without a made hand(but I think we can make that assumption; please correct me if I am wrong.)
Benefits of checking: we get value from her missed draws she decides to turn into bluffs. We protect our equity in the pot when behind flushes that get there, meaning we get value from the hands that may fold to a second barrel by bluff catching/have a chance to catch up when behind.
Benefits of betting: we get value from top pair because lady is definitely irrational enough to call down w a hand like KQ/AQ, maybe even JT that picks up a pair+gutter; I find that a typical live player looks for any excuse to call so they can blame their misfortune on "luck". Also, we lose value from top pair+
that may not bet the turn when checked too. Downsides of checking: lady may not turn draws into bluff on turn; lady may check weak top pairs. Lady may make bluffs, but size them incredibly small, thus the value we get from them is not outweighed by the value we get from betting and getting called by top pair.
Downsides of betting: Miss value from draws she may turn into bluffs. May get raised off of our equity when she has a FD that gets there on the turn.
My conclusion: I think betting the turn is better vs an unthinking player w so many unknown variables; I think we need to have more conclusive evidence for checking being better than betting. Also, KK against the general population is just too high up in our range to be checking here; there are so many worse hands that can call and overall just better hands we can be checking here OOP on the turn(namely KQ, QT)
Vs a good/thinking player or a player who is uber aggressive, then checking the turn actually becomes pretty reasonable. Mainly, because we arent getting value from top pair vs a good player, and we actually want to protect our equity/bluff catch.
Also of point to mention: I think when we do not hold the K
, we have much less of an incentive to check the turn because we have less equity to protect/more single spades that can call... What is your opinion?
Last edited by blackluster777; 02-15-2015 at 05:03 PM.
02-15-2015
, 05:25 PM
