1/3, 9-handed

Typical 1/3 game. One or two thinking players, but most are passive calling stations.

V1 (~$200, OWG) is very tight and passive unless he has a hand, but he'll bet over-pairs.
V2 (~$240, MAWG) is basically an unknown, but nothing impressive so far. He just took his wife’s seat and has been at the table for maybe one orbit. I've played with him before and he just seems like an average rec player.
Hero (~$350, MAWW) is TAG.

One limper, V1 (HJ) raises to $13. He has a pocket pair probably JJ+. The worst he has is AK.

H (CU) calls w/ 55

V2 (BTN) calls

Blinds and Limper fold.

Flop (~$35): 589r

V1 bets $15, Hero raises to $45, V2 shoves $225, V1 folds.

Hero? Can you ever fold bottom set here? Should you?

Vs. 99/88/JTs/98s/67s your hand has ~39% equity. Calling looks like 36% (180/500), so I'd lean fold absent live reads.

FWIW, I'd fold pre given V1 image and 67 bbs effective.

Can I fold? No
Should I fold? Yes

Being the first caller to setmine with a small pocket pair is pretty meh, imo. If it ends up HU we'll need 3 postflop bets to go in to actually make money, and that won't happen in a lotta cases (such as when up against KK on an A high flop, etc.). We're also only getting about 16:1 odds against the raiser (very meh). It's not great, imo.

SPR is less than 7 and we're in position on the raiser who likely has a big overpair. There are admittedly 8 action killing cards (and possibly some scary overcards), but I think I'm willing to risk those by just flatting the cbet as we'll still be able to get in stacks trivially by the river in position. If there was a flush draw (bringing more potential action killing cards and more hands we could rep) I would more lean to a raise. The more raisey aggro versus nitty rock also makes a difference as to what you should lean to.

Very meh spot now. We basically have to hope he's lol overplaying hands like JJ/TT or has 98 (the only reasonable hand that he can show up with here that he thinks is ahead). One of the reasons I believe setmining with small pairs is likely not profitable any more is for the RIO it has against bigger sets. Soul read I suppose, but I wouldn't fault a fold here at all to this action (but really depends on how many rodeos you think this guy has been to).

GcluelessNLnoobG

I'm calling all day. JJ+ can take the same line. It's a bad call against 4 combos of 67s and 6 combos of 88/99, it's a good call against 24 combos of JJ+, 4 combos of 89s. I don't think V would take line with JTs.

His overpair combos reduce immensely based on him just overflatting preflop just $200 deep.

Gjustsayin'Idon'texpecttoseeAA/KKandperhapsevenQQtoooftenhere,althoughnotoutofthe questionG

Actually a somewhat easy fold.

But you shouldn't have a raising range on this flop.

And preflop should be a fold. Effective stacks are 67BB~.

Go to Flopzilla.

Go directly to Flopzilla.

Do not pass "Go," do not collect $200.

First of all, in LOLive low-stakes NLHE, we should basically always be playing our flopped sets fast, especially on wet boards, because we want to get money into the pot before an action-killing card falls on one of the later streets.

So, let's give V2 a preflop cold-calling range of something like {JJ-22,AQs-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s,87s,76s,AQo-AJo,KQo}. Let's give them a flop jamming range of overpair or better and no draws.

Hero's holding is *still* a 56:44 favorite, and can easily call $180 to win a pot of $320. The overlay gets even bigger each time we add hands like top pair, OESDs, and pair+gutshots.

The key question is whether or not the villain is going to jam with JJ or TT. If they do not, then we are in significant trouble from 99 or 88 and we do not have the equity to call ... unless they also jam with TJ for an OESD, in which case we are getting a slight overlay.

(Preflop, the implied odds we are getting from the opener are close to exactly 15:1, which means that we are marginally inside the target specified in Bart Hanson's 15-25-35 rule for preflop calls.)

The fact you are weighting OESD and pair + GS's in V2s range the same as higher sets + straights make the whole exercise inaccurate.

This is really basic stuff here. FlopZilla is elementary software.

Also - I think Bart Hanson is a decent player but his advice is outdated.

I am using Monker Ranges at Equilibrium. 55 is always a fold here. But I have no problem exploit calling with 55 at deeper stacks although at 67BB's it is just lighting money on fire.

I'm aware of "Fast playing sets." But are you aware of the implications of always raising your good hands?

Villain will almost always have us beat here given OP's description. Weighting JJ/TT and pair + draw the same as 88/99/76s is inaccurate.

Looking forward to results from OP - because I know sets are hard to fold. But this is a spot where folding would be zero EV and calling is most likely negative.

As DooDoo says, one of the most common mistakes I see in this forum is people giving the same weight to all parts of ranges (it's often completely ignored during equity calcs).

Still, kinda soul readish. Basically have to decide if he's the type to not raise JJ preflop because he wants to see if he flops an overpair and hurp durp thinks he's good to this action, versus the type to flat JJ preflop because he's facing an OMC very tight raise (where most regs will find a trivial muck to this action correctly thinking they are likely in third place).

GcluelessweightingnoobG

As to calling 55 pre-flop, I am in the setmine for 10% - 15% of stacks mentality, especially against these players. I also expected the limper to come along.

I am getting paid on most sets -- this board was a little too draw-heavy to have another player in the hand, which is why I raised. V1 would probably have made one call on the flop if he had AA/KK (his most likely holdings betting in to two of us). I might have gotten a little more out of him, but I doubt it. Maybe a small river value-bet if the runout was safe for him.

GG!

Speaking of soul readish I hero called some guy with J high yesterday and ended up being right on a KhTh7s3c2s run out. After I overbet turn with J6hh and flop went x/x. River I x/c. and Villain tabled 98hh

Literally no one at the table even acknowledged it lol.

Sorry I just had to tell someone about that

Ah, I confused V1 with V2. Would put V2 on the nuts here.

Tough spot.

Honestly, there is probably enough A9S and 98S, and the fact it's a rainbow board for me to call. There are very few boards I don't continue on with when I have 55 and flop a 5 without a flush draw. I stack off here.

Sent from my SM-N976V using Tapatalk

The players advocating a fold are probably correct but jeez its tough to fold a set for under 100 bigs! I would fold pre, ap i call and probably get stacked by the flopped straight or big set

While the calc fits, there are two parts to the equation. The 2nd is - will we get paid? The V is described as a tight, older player, which should be a consideration.

As I stated earlier, I will get paid -- at least some. If the board had been less drawy, he would have bet the flop, I would have flatted. He would have bet turn, I would have flatted. He probably would have check/called a small river bet. However, being short, he might have shoved river.

These guys don't give up their over-pairs easily. He might have even shoved the flop or at least called my raise if V2 hadn't shoved.

Remember, these guys wait a long time for AA/KK

haha yes OMC's cannot fold overpairs.

What ended up happening in the actual hand?

lol you wanna fold after a successful set mine? makes sense.


its low stakes live poker. you should know ppl do the craziest, dumbest, (left out another adjective) *****. you're ahead of 98, pair w/ straight draws, and slow played over pairs. you can't just narrow him to over sets and 67.

I'm not folding against a rec here. He can easily have top 2, an OESD, or a pair + gutshot. Maybe he's even the type to overplay TT here.

Bottom line: I need much better reads to fold a flopped set.

Results:

It took me a second, but I called. I just got the feeling he didn't have a bigger set and if he had the straight, I had outs. I also wasn't sure he'd shove the straight because he'd want to milk it, maybe. I basically followed my gut and called. (Plus, I had a set for less than 100bb. There are some people I'd fold to, but not your average rec player.)

Turn was the 7c, river 3c, he had 89o

I guess this is still a call. God I am becoming nitty. NH OP

This obviously. And on top of that we're only 80bb deep, against "basically an unknown". But no, leave it to 2+2 to advocate folding the set.

I actually like that you posted this hand, Java. There are more threads like this one, and it often feels like the people saying "fold" in these spots are mostly doing so because they think that this hand would not have been posted after a win. Obviously they're usually right about that. But not today.

But it really depends on our ranging. How often do you hear at the table "I woulda called if it was soooted"? If that's this guy, then when you eliminate the offsuit 98/76 and only have 99/88/98s/76s, are equity plummets to 28%, and our call has a whopping EV of -$40.

I'm not hating on a call at all, especially factoring in spazz / unknown / lolJJ / offsooted, etc. which will likely make it close and push us into sigh call EV territory. But we're not printing nearly as much money as we think and it's really opponent dependent.

GcluelessrangingnoobG

Can't believe people are saying you should fold a set. What games are you playing? You called PF to see I 5, you got it. He never has 76 (by your reads) and has JJ+. What kind of a nitty are you?

If you're folding sets on a not-so-scary-board, you're folding overpairs to any shove, thinking your oppo has sets all the time.

I'd be willing to bet another stack, if it were possible