Blind all in and a call ahead of H’s 8’s.
11-04-2022
, 12:56 AM
It's pretty hard to guess V2's calling range to a blind open shove; there's not a huge reason not to simply wait for a better spot if the game is good. Still, someone is going to catch that bouquet and I think we want a piece of it. I started typing this up earlier and never posted it, so now I'm just going to be a contrarian. 
Villian's reshove range on a generally weak tight table should be, like, any two cards both higher than ten, imo, even if he is fairly tight. He's only going to be running into a hand that he's not at least flipping with, by my calculation:
7 players left * 1 / 221 for a specific pair * (AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT) = 15.8% of the time.
And a villain with AA, KK, QQ, even JJ might flat rather than re-shove. A shove is more likely to be a hand that "needs protection", like AQ.
As such, a pair is a good hand, and 88 is high enough that you won't get counterfeited as you would with, like, 55-. We are used to thinking in terms of 50/50 flips, but really 88 vs. AQ is 54.6% to win. The times you are crushed by 99, TT, JJ will somewhat be balanced out by all the times someone behind you calls with another AJ+ type hand and they are splitting each other's outs. And I don't think TT can call behind you. I think you are only crushed by someone behind you ~7% of the time. (But, like, even then there are people left to act who will fold QQ because "I thought one of them had to have me beat". People out here folding 88 already, right?)
With the overlay, I really think calling might be +EV. There's certainly a stack depth ratio V2 could have to make the dead(ish) money mostly irrelevant, but 1.5x ain't it.
Although someone can correct my math, which I admit, I've mostly performed using my gut.
Still, this is all sort of in a vacuum because it is not a spot that comes up much in live play. Or if it is, I don't get invited to those games, lol. In short, YMMV!
Villian's reshove range on a generally weak tight table should be, like, any two cards both higher than ten, imo, even if he is fairly tight. He's only going to be running into a hand that he's not at least flipping with, by my calculation:
7 players left * 1 / 221 for a specific pair * (AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT) = 15.8% of the time.
And a villain with AA, KK, QQ, even JJ might flat rather than re-shove. A shove is more likely to be a hand that "needs protection", like AQ.
As such, a pair is a good hand, and 88 is high enough that you won't get counterfeited as you would with, like, 55-. We are used to thinking in terms of 50/50 flips, but really 88 vs. AQ is 54.6% to win. The times you are crushed by 99, TT, JJ will somewhat be balanced out by all the times someone behind you calls with another AJ+ type hand and they are splitting each other's outs. And I don't think TT can call behind you. I think you are only crushed by someone behind you ~7% of the time. (But, like, even then there are people left to act who will fold QQ because "I thought one of them had to have me beat". People out here folding 88 already, right?)
With the overlay, I really think calling might be +EV. There's certainly a stack depth ratio V2 could have to make the dead(ish) money mostly irrelevant, but 1.5x ain't it.
Although someone can correct my math, which I admit, I've mostly performed using my gut.
Still, this is all sort of in a vacuum because it is not a spot that comes up much in live play. Or if it is, I don't get invited to those games, lol. In short, YMMV!