Table just started up about 30 minutes ago 2/5 NL and all players have 100bb eff stack

All

Villain 1 is unknown old guy playing pretty straight forward loose passive it seems. Too small of sample to tell.

Villain 2 is a weaktight reg that I've played with a bit. He respects my game and doesn't get too out of line, but I did stack him flush over flush once when he called my preflop open with 64s in the SB. Generally plays very straight forward, doesn't valuebet thinly, but will fire for protection with made hands on wet boards.

Villain 1 raises UTG to $25
Villain 2 calls in UTG+1
Folds to hero OTB with AQ
Blinds fold

Pot: $75
Flop: KT8
Villain 1 checks
Villain 2 bets $45 and looks confident
Hero thinks a bit and calls
Villain 2 folds

Pot $165
Turn: 9
Villain 2 bets $75
Hero tanks and calls (dunno if this is any good or not???)

Pot: $305
River: 6
Villain 2 thinks for about 10 seconds and throws out a $100 bill
Hero mucks

Any good? Bad? Standard? I think my play is probably too obvious and getting paid on the river when I hit will be tough, but the odds are pretty good looking...

I might be too tight, but I fold AQo preflop when an older passive raises UTG.

Otherwise I think the rest of the hand is fine. A flop semibluff raise can be considered, though I'm not sure how often villain 2 folds after betting and looking strong while doing it. You do have a bunch of outs though, so you don't need too many folds.

I'd fold the turn. Never folding this pf otb for 5bb. Could be a 3bet depending on the table.

I dunno. I kind of hate this hand a bit. The loose passive raising UTG looks like a big hand to me. I think range is only TT+, AKs so we are pretty much destroyed with AQo. The flat UTG+1 is almost certainly not AA,KK,QQ but it's strong given description so let's say 22-JJ, T9s+.

I think if we choose to play this it's large a positional play, and given that we are trying to win by playing poker not by having the best hand. In game, I probably don't throw it away even though I should but hating a call I would raise it to hopefully get the hand heads up with position. I'd assume UTG+1 is going to throw away his weaker hand when I do that and with the UTG raiser I'm going to find out pretty quick what's happening. If he 4b I fold. If he calls, I play poker on the flop. So, I raise to my own doom I'm sure.

As played, I end up tanking the flop for like 10 minutes trying to figure out what to do... Even from the comfort of my living room, I'm having trouble keeping all the draws and blockers straight. For instance, I originally included AKs, KQs but he can't have either because in both cases the Ks is on the board.

So he's truly "confident" with a very, very small range:

88 -- 3 combos
TT -- 3 combos
QJs -- 1 combo

The other potential hands in there like AK red would be strong but I don't think he'd look confident on a monotone flop and I ruled those out preflop anyway.

Only because I ran this in Pokerstove I know we have 33% equity against this very narrow range. Given that I think he never folds these hands now or on the turn we can only create a positive situation here by flatting the flop and shipping only if we get there with the nut flush to give him a negative ev situation. Call is good then.

Given the turn, our equity drops to 23% but once again assuming we get to decide whether or not to play for stacks and we need 3-1 to call, we're calling $75 to win about about $500 so we call happily.

River sucks, no fold equity, meh... muck and play on.

Note: In this analysis I set aside weaker suited connecters that produce a made flush and I also set some random semi-bluffing hands like AKo so they offset and even though my selected range for utg+1 is pretty tight I think it works.

If you're going to call turn, Raise flop instead.

Based on the dynamic and history, a 3-bet from villain is unlikely. If he calls, then he'll almost certainly will check turn, then you can take a free card or fire again. You control the hand, he's more likely to fold flop than come over the top without the nuts.

Fold turn, you're not getting paid off OTR and his bet made your pot odds (2.8) I can see peeling one off on OTF but that's as far as I go with this hand.

I can't fold that pre IP. 3-bet and more often than not opener will fold and V2 will call with a dominated hand. Fold to a 4-bet. Anyways call is ok.

Call on the flop is not ok. You have to raise. With your A of spades taking away all the big combos from him, he's only 3-bet jamming with sets and made flushes, so you can fold to the shove. He is even sometimes flatting with these hands. He is folding or flatting and checking the turn with the larger part of his range, which is extremely profitable to hero.

Don't 3-bet too much or you'll be committed. Make it 115$ (which 5$ less than what you ended up putting it in this pot, but with more equity if you hit)

I'm not sure I agree with the 3bet preflop argument. An old passive player is opening UTG. I think card_farmers TT+, AK range is a good range to assign him. We are getting hammered by that range. We're going to have to win the pot by bluffing quite often to make 3 betting profitable.

I'd raise the turn and if he calls, he's going to check to you. I'd probably take the free card in this situation and hope the river hits me.

I want to understand this line better. What hands do you think he will fold on flop? I don't see any unless he's just truly bluffing but I'm not sure.

My thinking is just to get two more cards out as cheaply as possible assuming opponent will pay us off. (Maybe he won't and that's a bad assumption... Four the flush on river will fold sets I guess.) If we raise on flop don't we have to raise much more than the $75 we ended up paying on the turn? As it is we paid $120 to see two cards... I don't mean to be results oriented and we cant know what he'll do on turn but it's likely he'll bet less on turn than we have to raise on flop? This is a question that often applies when in position... Cheaper to Call/Call or Raise/? to get to river? And if Raise/? is cheaper then how much should we be raising to accomplish that? .5pot? .75pot? Any more and we are likely paying more than Call/Call unless opponent is potting every street.

If that's the case, then you should probably never fold any 2 cards OTB to a 5bb raise. I do agree regarding 3bet though (but wouldn't do it to old nit raising from UTG)..but once again, the 3-bet really isn't dependent on what cards you have in your hand. It can work with any 2 cards.

If you raise the flop and he just flats he may check the turn to you and you get a free card and now ou also have control of the hand

I sometimes fold AQo here to a passive player's UTG raise. I don't like 3-betting pre against Villain 1. Raise to $140 OTF and take control of the hand. Another line to take would be to raise small on the turn to like $190 and shove river. Looks like a slow played flush. I just don't really like flatting two streets here when you're IP.

Fold pre. AQ doesn't fare well against old guy's utg range.

I would also fold pre. You're flipping with the low end of his range and losing badly to everything else.

The problem with calling bets as played is that most of your outs are massive scare cards to his value range. Obviously any spade kills his set hands, and even if he has QsJs he's going to fear you have the ace. You really want to hit an offsuit jack, but that's probably the only hand that gets you paid off.

For that reason I fold the turn.

Looks good

Actually wait, I messed up my math. By my count you're paying $75 to win 165+75 or 240. 240/75 = 3.2 so you're getting 3.2-1.

3.2-1 means you need 1/4.2 or 24% equity. I stoved a range of AA,KK,TT,88,QsJs. You're 24% against that range, and 23.8% vs KK,TT,88,QsJs.

You're also in position. Given those odds (if I did my math properly), I think it's fine to call $75. Even if he doesn't pay off ANYTHING it's basically a BE or slightly -ev call. You have to rate to win SOMETHING if you hit.

As played, i would make a small suck bet if a spade came off. Maybe even $75 if he checked.

I bet a little more with an offsuit Jack, but the problem again there is that the board shows a 1 liner to a queen. If he somehow has a naked queen maybe he pays off though.

I think either play is fine. But just a hypothetical, if an offsuit jack hit and he bombs the river, you really have to start thinking of whether he has QsJs. KK is not going to bomb a 4straight, 3flush river.

Anyway that's all the math etc I can do at 4am. Lets say you make a tiny suck bet of $50 on the river and he always pays it off. That gives your turn call odds of 75 to win 290 or 3.9-1, which means you need like 21% equity on the turn. You have 24%, so you call.