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Bet sizing vs. weak players. Bet sizing vs. weak players.

01-06-2011 , 01:01 AM
I wanted to get a little strategy thread going here on betsizing. I'm talking about betsizing vs. weak players. Maybe it's just variance, but I've been noticing lately that I've been getting a lot of folds when I've bet my bigger hands big. They tank for a minute or so then just muck, and I feel like they just folded top pair when I bet my set too big.

I get the feeling that a lot of bad players look only at the size of the bet when deciding on a call, and not the pot size. At a 1/2 game where the max buy-in is $200, I'm noticing bets over $50 rarely get called without very strong holdings, even in huge pots. Take for example a board of KJ863 where we have 88 and a the three of clubs just hit on the river, completing a possible backdoor flush draw. Fish seem to hate when the flush comes in. They look like turtles that want to retreat into their shell. They'll check call top set. Let's say the pot on the river is $150. I feel like most of you here would suggest a bet of $80 to $100. I feel like betting more in the $40 to $50 range. I feel i'm so much more likely to get looked up by weak kings and jacks on this board than I am when I make a more conventional 1/2 pot bet.

Now lets say we have T9 for the busted straight draw. An all-in bluff of $120 seems to get a decent amount of folds. They just wont stick $120 in on one bet without a strong hand.

I feel there's another advantage to this as well. I tend to play at tables that are about 50/50 decent players/fish. I know the decent players are watching me. I'm going to flip this strategy against them somewhat. Mainly because that's what I'd do anyways, but on another level it seems to help because they've hopefully conditioned themselves to think that small bets mean value and big bets are bluffs from me.

I don't want to get too hung up on my specific examples. I guess I'm just curious if you find a lot of the typical weak fish fold proportionally higher as your betsizes increase, and often fold to big river value bets. So in these cases is it better to value bet smaller to help give the fish wider calling ranges? I'm sure there's a ton of "it depends" on this one. But overall, I'm starting to feel like adjusting my value bet size down against weak players is more profitable if I can shift their calling range from top pair to 2nd pair. Thoughts?
Bet sizing vs. weak players. Quote
01-06-2011 , 02:22 AM
Where I play (Tunica, MS), most of the fish typically bet around the same amount on each street, typically 20-25-25 or 20-25-30 on the flop turn and river. However, that being said, in my experience with them calling bets the amount doesn't really affect them, a bet of $20 or $40 is the same to them. Therefore on each streets I've always charged 2/3 pot or more because they will be calling no matter what I bet so I might as well get max value.

Honestly I have always felt like you should just bet at least 1/2 the pot because like I said above they are pretty much either going to call you or not. There just aren't that many people at 1/2 trying to make huge hero calls. In your case it appears your playing against really passive players so maybe you can lower your vbets a little bit but honestly I don't think it'll change much, hell you may even get paid less!
Bet sizing vs. weak players. Quote
01-06-2011 , 02:35 AM
When I cbet I typically bet 2/3 the pot pretty much standard for me. Turn bet sizing depends on my range and opponents range. I might go a little less then half or I might bet 2/3 of the pot again. River I always go for the value bet or value bet bluff. Usually 1/3 or 1/4 depends on what looks bigger.
Bet sizing vs. weak players. Quote
01-06-2011 , 02:03 PM
01-06-2011 , 02:16 PM
I think it boils down what you think they have and how scary the board is. If you think they have a massive but second best hand, then overbet (or shove) and we'll get called here enough of the time to make this the most +EV. If you think they have a very weak hand and the board is super scary, then make a small bet. Obviously sometimes our read will be off (damn, I didn't think he had that good of a hand of he woulda called more vs damn, I thought he had something really good but folded) but that's poker.
Bet sizing vs. weak players. Quote

      
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