This is more of a general question as I get in this situation quite often when I play live and sometimes I wonder whether my logic/thought process is sound. But I'll post a specific hand as an example:

Live $5/$5 game

9 handed

Stacks:

-UTG+1 ($630) - VERY loose/bad fishy Asian girl who has been donk betting 1/4 pot into raisers with gutshots/any draw and chasing draws for large amounts. She has been hitting her draws and feeling great about gambling and life. Also seen limping UTG with JTs then cold calling a $75 reraise preflop when she had a $250 stack as an example of how loose she is.

-UTG+3 ($800ish) - super nitty fit or fold Asian guy

-Hero is in the cut off and have both players covered. My image is probably straightforward and solid.


Preflop: Hero is dealt 55

Girl limps, Asian dude limps, Hero raises to $25, everyone else folds and girl and Asian dude calls.

Flop ($85): QT5

Girl bets $40, Asian dude folds, Hero raises to $120, girl calls

Turn ($325): 7

Girl checks.
Hero...



This is where my question about bet sizing comes in. When the girl donk bet on the flop and called my raise, I pretty much put her on KJ. She can of course also have J9, Qx, AT, AJ, or something like that. Now, on the turn, she still has $485 behind. How much should I bet?

I of course want to bet the most she is willing to call if I decide she is on a straight draw while giving her incorrect odds. She is about 17% to hit (unless she also picked up a spade draw), but I am also considering her implied odds because she is SO bad that I don't think I can fold on the river if an Ace or a 9 comes and she shoves.

So after I considered her implied odds she has a chance of winning $870 ($385 in the pot and $485 left in her stack that she can double up) if she calls my turn bet and hits.

I don't really want to shove because she might fold (especially awful if she just has one pair) but if I make a bet and leave some money behind, I'll be the one making a "mistake" when I call her all in if she hits since I'm planning on never folding.

I ended up betting $225 on the turn which is about 25% of her pot+implied odds. The river was an Ace, and she shipped for $260, and I sighed and called hoping she had AQ or AT.

What are your thoughts on how this hand was played?

When you have a very strong hand against a very bad player, how do you size your bet on the turn if you think they have a draw? What if you've decided that you are never folding the river after betting the turn (because of hand strength and pot size at that point)? Is it "faulty" to make a turn bet based on the villain's implied odds instead of pot odds because you plan on paying them off anyway if they hit the river?

I apologize if this was long winded or a lame question. I would appreciate any feedback.

On the flop- announce raise, put out 40, have the dealer pull all the money in, put out another 190.

On the turn- bet 390 (which puts her all in without actually saying "all in").

Basically, trick her brain charlie sheen style...

Note: I think this is a much different spot than the AJ/top 2 thread where we didn't know villain was a massive fish/station who's donk almost always = draw. Also in that hand iirc stacks were deeper and we weren't trying to set up a turn shove. Lastly, I believe that was a bigger game--> the actual dollar amount was significant irl/a flop over-raise would carry a lot of unwanted fe.

Raise more on the flop, something like to $140-150 at least. She's donking 1/2 a pot, no need to make a standard 3* raise here, it's implied odds that you're playing with this deep.

Your turn thinking is solid imo.

Also I don't mind your turn bet sizing as a portion of the pot, but with bigger flop raise, you could get like $250-270 in here. That's ~$60 more that she's putting in bad, which is a lot worse implied odds for her so she makes a bigger mistake.

The idea is to make her to make the maximum mistake with her whole range and I don't think that flop raise sets it up for that. If she calls turn shove with open ender, you could try to go for bigger sizing but I don't think it's most EV+ since I doubt it and also it might force her to fold something like KQ,QJ. Overall, nh.

You should have known what your turn bet would be on the flop before raising the $40 bet. That is, figure out what % of pot you want your shove to be on the turn - generally just under pot-sized and then raise to the amount that accomplishes that goal.
DGAF- you've obviously just thought a lot more about live poker than I have. Interesting post.
also, fwiw, moreso on 2-tone boards when you raise the flop and the turn is basically a brick, I don't have a problem with over-betting all in. I think a lot of people would be surprised by how often fish will snap-call with a draw or one pair. Here, where the flop lead is one pair much more often, I think you stand a better chance of getting stacks by raising big on the flop and making the turn bet not an overbet.

Very true, I should've raised more on flop since I put her on a draw and she will call almost any amount for a draw. Then I could've set the turn up for a shove that will get called as she will feel committed at that point. Thanks for the feedback.