1/2 SL $100

Hero ~$400 - Playing very TAG. Been at the table for around 10 hours with a few of the same players.

V1 ~$300 - Semi tight. She's been playing pretty snug and hasn't really got out of line. She'll limp some garbage hands every once in a while, and I have seen her raise a few draws weakishly (like close to min raises). She's been at the table most of the time with me

V2 ~$220 - 200 yr old man. Played with him once before. He plays a weird passive type of game. He generally doesn't give his money away chasing too hard, but he'll play garbage for raises (seen him call a $20 raise with T3o HU and all sorts of other stuff). If he misses he just folds. He'll check call the nuts all day, sometimes raise them, sometimes bet and raise hands he thinks is the nuts... just plays a weird style.

Couple limps MP
V1 limps from the CO
V2 completes SB
Hero J8 checks

Flop ($10)

Q610

Checks all the way through

Turn ($10)

9

V2 checks
Hero bets $10
folds to V1
V1 raises to $25
V2 raises to $75
Hero?

This is never a call. Its either raise and get it in or fold. There are 3 possible straights and I am holding the middle one. Two flush draws. As I said before I had seen V1 raise weakish on her draws a couple of times. Generally when she had the goods she would pound it. Typically in this spot with a straight I would expect her to raise to $45 or so especially with two flush draws on board. I wasn't too worried about her as her range included some draws IMO.

ez shove to me

Tough spot. Hit your gin card on turn. With the raise and reraise I would have to think about folding. There are a lot of 2 pair combos you could see here, but I think you see kj a lot here. Heads up I would ship, but in this spot a fold might be best.

which player are you really afraid of here? Based on what you said I'm afraid of V2 0% of the time. So V1 makes a 2.5x raise when we hit the 2nd nuts and we're seriously considering folding? Easy shove to me as well.

I was there and wasn't V2 on the button (?) If not, then he CR'd everyone OTF? Isn't that showing even more strength?

Put yourself in V2's shoes, semi-tight & passive. What hands would you:

1) Not bet PF? (you're a passive calling station PF, but I think we can eliminate AA/KK/QQ)
2) Check OTF with?
3) CR a bettor and raiser OTT to put in a 3rd bet of ~40 BB's? (1/3 of your starting stack)

Thinking about these 3 questions, I now have his range on just about made straights and that's all. Why:

He likely would have bet a set on the wet board OTF.
He likely (but not always) would bet QQ PF and definitely if checked OTF, as well as any other goofy-played over-pairs and sets.
He's passive, so it doesn't seem likely that he would check any queen on the flop and then bet 2p (Q9) like this.

The only set he MIGHT have is 99. I think a very reasonable, weighted range is:

AIR: 0%
naked flush draw: 0%
overpair: 0%
Any straight (7/8, KJ, J8) : 85%
2p or set: 10%
1p (1p + draw): 5%

My 2 cents.. I honestly don't see us beating too much of his range here AND we still have V1 behind us raising. If V2 doesn't have the nut, it's still possible that V1 does. Rather than get stacks in here, fold and live to fight another day. Against a looser, trickier or more complicated villain, or even HU, that's another story.

..

ya know i agree with your assessment of range, but wondered how you came up with your conclusion.

V1 does not have KJ IMO. So any money V1 puts in the pot now would be +EV to hero i say.

Now for V2.
we risk 198 for a total pot of 463 if V1 folds.
we need 42% equity.
If i give V2 ONLY straights, and weight them to a reasonable combo number, (because V2 is going to raise SOME KJ hands, but none of the 78 combos), i get.....51% so we are ahead of V2 range PLUS if V1 calls with a set or 2 pair, thats a huge bonus for hero.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.995% 35.08% 16.92% 16817683 8111132.50 { Jh8s }
Hand 1: 48.005% 31.09% 16.92% 14904564 8111132.50 { KcJc, KdJd, Jc8c, Jd8d, 87s, KdJc, KhJc, KhJd, KsJc, KsJd, KsJh, Jc8d, Jc8h, Jd8c, Jd8h, Js8c, Js8d, Js8h, 87o }

How can you be certain that V1 or V2 does not have KJ? Seems like a perfectly reasonable hand to limp in with. Check flop with...and raise turn with.

Ship. 78 is there as well. V1 has a huge raising range on that flop that you crush and v2 sounds like a complete drooler and t/f you can't limit his range to one holding here.

She'll limp some garbage hands every once in a while>>>>>>>

Limps KJ in CO? Sure, small amount, but this is a donkey kong passive game if thats the case and OP didnt make her out to be this passive i didnt think.

i will be a little curious as to results so OP, give them in the end if you will.

Fair enough. I agree in that I am shoving here, but I think we still have to include KJ in the range if we are going to stove out the math.

Why curious? You don't think this is a clear shove? If it turns out she had KJ I think it's being results oriented.

We're really going to fold J8 here for less than 150BBs?

Of course. But IMO I don't think KJ makes up a huge part of her range. ie. it's more likely that she has 87 than KJ.

That's the only problem with PokerStove, you can't weight the villain's range.

I will... just waiting for some KSF,KUD,PERC,VEN10 love....

back to the top you go

I think a lot of posts come down to a fundamental concept, which I've seen argued on 2p2 from time to time:

If you have +EV, no matter how little, get the $$$ in every time. "+EV is always +EV"

Then the entire thread really comes down to how accurately you can put your villains on a range to determine your equity. This is much easier with a HUD, but conveying how strangers were playing and what they are truly capable of in a hand via text to strangers is pretty tricky.

In my mind, especially in a live game, if I'm nearly certain I'm going to be offered multiple 70/30, 60/40 equity spots in the next few hours of play, I'm not going to risk my stack (no matter how deep my BR is) in a spot where I'm possibly drawing dead or have 51% equity. When a 200 year old man check-raises 2 players for 1/3 of his stack, I'm feeling like a 51/49 spot for stacks maybe isn't the best spot.

Shoot.. I can get 51/49 flips on Blackjack for $200 all day long

(Just a elaborate re-bump... I don't see any love from the SSNL geniuses yet)

2nd nuts, I don't think I could lay it down in this particular instance. Board is so drawy a raise is in order, and if you lose than it's a cooler. I don't think realistically folding the 2nd nut str on this board qualifies is the problem. There are just too many hands villains can be raising for perceived value here including lower str, low sets, and 2pr combos.

Hero bets $10 into $6, gets raised to $25 by V1 semi-nit, and get's CR'd to $75 by V2..

If you're not at least considering a fold in this instance, I'm not sure you're ever getting away from 2nd nut.

When you look at it like that, its prolly over 50% a fold. But in this instance, all circumstances leading up to heros action is monumental in making correct ranges for villain. Of course, the real hand here kinda is of no value since sometimes villains open limp AA on button and therefore nobody ever puts i in their range, but the overall range given to villain is still correct (even though it didnt include AA).

A lot of the time players when constructing ranges dont dissect down and give % of the combos of hands, instead of just giving hands 100%. In this example i said villain would raise KJss maybe half the combos, but limp 87 and 87ss 100%. That was vital for me to conclude what i did. Otherwise it became about neutral EV.

im not folding this

Old man had KJ... obv... why would i post it othewise right?

V1 said she had J8 also... easy fold ldo after all the action up front.

The point of the thread was can we get away from this? We have passive old man (who yes plays weird, but is nonetheless passive) 3bc/r'ing 2 players. Even a lag that 3betc/r's should scream nuts. Are we using too wide of ranges in certain situations that warrant very small nut ranges? Yes, old man may play a weird set like this, but really how often do we think he does that? I went through some of the same ranges as some of the posts on here in my head and was like this is a call for sure. How often do we do that though, make up some range where its always a call because we are like 53/47 or w/e when its obviously a fold...

I dont know, I dont think this hand is a prime example, or maybe it is... I told myself during the hand if there were only 2 straight combos on the board I would fold, but there were 3 and I kind of trapped myself into it I guess.

I saw a post by AintNoLimit in another thread. Said something like a guy was explaining a hand and giving the math x=this and % that, and the other guy said dude f all that when George puts money in the pot you run! Or something like that.

Ur exactly right, BUT, that is when you know this guy, and know he never never bets big without about the pure nuts etc. That doesnt mean just looking over at a guy who has been kinda tight etc for the day. Keep in mind that 87 would look like the nuts too to him possibly. I havent seen many players at all make a low straight and just call because a higher str was possible. (not often anyway)

And something else, i usually fall into the folding side of things (and get chewed out by friends often due to it), but this spot i say hero just cannot fold with the limited info that we have. The fact that villain had KJ is of zero consequence.

The reason I posted the hand was because I was told by a f..f...aquaintance that this should of been the easiest fold ever and that I should of found my hero fold button without a problem... said f..f... aquaintance posted ITT... i'll let you take a guess who.

I want to add this.. the reason that this hand was a big deal is because we have been discussing (the friend and I, or pb4l) ranges and how on 2p2 they become very wide. I think whats happening is that too many people have read the online guy's range threads and have transfered them over to here. Honestly, online ranges and live ranges are completely different animals IMO. Ranges live are so much tighter and a bit more obvious. This very well could of been a hand that was obviously a fold... but w/e I can't bring myself to fold 2nd nut hand here when there are 3 hands that one would consider a "nut" hand (78,J8,KJ). Had there been two combos of str8's I can find a fold button.