Was this a bad fold?

1/2 NL 200max table 9 players, I'm in seat 5.

Im BB, look down at KK.. I make it 16 to go.

Folds around to MP in seat 9. He literally stands up, looks over at my stack then puts me all in for the 125$ I had.

I go into the tank.. Think about it, and think about his mannerism in this instance and fold. Obviously putting him on AA...

My buddy at the table laughs at me and tells me that was the worse fold everr...

About two hours later that gentleman is getting up from the table, I ask him if he had AA. He goes "Yea I did, I cant believe you folded..."

Assuming he wasnt lying to me. Which i dont think he was.. Was it a bad fold?

Thanks,

60bb yes.

Add reads, sure it can be telling a guy has a very strong hand he likes, whether thats JJ or AA, who knows.

All-in.

It was a bad fold.

It's a bad fold in a vacuum, of course, but there have been plenty of instances where I just knew for certain he had it yet called anyway because it would be super exploitable if I folded, but that's just not a very good reason in 1/2 NL to be paying people off imo. Humans are capable of processing a lot of information at a subconscious level that they can't explain. Even if he has AK, you're only a 70% favorite. At 1/3 and below, if I had always gone with my gut in a close decision, I would have done a lot better lifetime, I think.

This is my feeling. I see both sides - just that this guys was playing a pretty TAG system and was running really well. I just felt he had AA. It was nice of him to tell me at the end but overall I guess I just ran with it.

Thanks,

Are you sure he told you the truth? Maybe he wants you to keep making bad folds. Maybe he didn't want you to feel silly for being wrong about folding KK pre.

Unless you have a read that this guy is a huge nit, this is a bad fold. I can think of a few people who I have played a lot with who I think only ever have AA here, but not very many.

More info needed, as since you were in the BB, there was obviously some action missing. Did MP overlimp? Open limp? Did someone raise smaller and you three-bet? etc.

Still, basically a horrible fold without a very strong read and only 62BBs effective.

No 3-bet. limps around. I 2-bet and he came over the 3-bet.

99% of the time its an insta call, I agree. i just never seen anyone stand up, look over to get a count, sit down and put me in for exactly what I had. Just seemed so odd. Also with his run good and TAG play i just immediately thought AA.

And again, when I asked him when he was getting up to leave, he truly seemed to be telling me that he had AA and that he was astonished I folded..

As others have said, in a vacuum it's a bad fold. Only 6 combos of AA while there are 8 combos of AK that could do the same thing, 6 of QQ, etc. Only 66BB too. I would argue it seems how astute this player is. If he's a MAWG who is level 1 thinking then I don't think he does this with QQ and AK is a coin toss.

OP, you need 44% about equity to make this call. As with all "should I fold KK pf" questions (there's a lot of them in the forums), it comes down to if you know he'd only shove with KK+, then you fold. Most players will shove with at least AK or QQ, which means it is a call.

We weren't there, so maybe you had a read that said it was only KK+. My criteria for folding in these circumstances is, "if I have to create a thread on 2+2 wondering if folding KK preflop was the right decision, I shouldn't fold."

Seems like you want to hear it wasn't a bad fold, but it was a bad fold. Nearly as bad as demonstrating to other players that you fold KK in this spot.

No sir. Just wanted to get everyone's opinion. Getting told I did something incorrect is just fine with me as long as it's justified. Which everyone has.

Thank you!

I agree with others that it was a very bad fold

the Villain only has 1 hand that is ahead in his range and we are crushing the rest of his range

this is a never fold in my opinion even if he could show you the AA lol

I mean people do this same move with Big Slick and other Ace with paint cards

Not this. Math to follow.

Not really this either. I mean people do limp/shove AK occasionally, but other than that it's pretty much always a pocket pair. People will raise/shove with other big aces sometimes, but not limp/shove basically ever.

So this is why step one is wrong. AA has 82% equity against KK pre flop. It will stand up 82% of the time. That means that if someone shows you AA after shoving, you should call if your call will be less than 18% of the pot. This, or something analogous to it, does happen from time to time, but this obviously isn't one of those times. It requires either a very multi-way pot or a lot of dead money. In this case, there is approx (we don't know how many limpers there were) $163 in the pot, and it's $125 for us to call. That means our call will represent 43.4% of the $288 total pot.

So what kind of range does V really have? It's hard to tell for sure without more info on V, but he's supposedly "pretty TAG." Let's say he usually raises AK, and since he has position, he'd usually just call our raise. So he has 1/4 of the AK combos. Since we have KK, there are only 8 combos of AK left, so we'll give him two. He likely could do this with all combos of QQ+ and occasionally smaller PPs if he thinks Hero is often has two overs and he can get folds and have a slightly better than coin flip if called. Lets give him 12 combos of smaller PPs.

We have 65% against that range, and should obviously be calling. Even if he never has the lower PPs, we still have 52% equity against QQ+/AKs. We obviously always want to call a shove if we are over 50%, though with money in the pot we don't need even 50%. Even if he only does this with QQ half the time, we still have 44.66% equity, which is 1.26% more than we need.

I am definitely in the "you can fold KK preflop sometimes" camp.


But not in this spot. Pretty much never in a cash game for 60 bbs.

V limp shoves over your raise pre and you put him on exactly AA?!! Ask yourself if you sat in his seat with AA, would you bet the same or acted like V? NO! No one would, including the V. Yes, AA is the top of his range but I'd eliminate that holding knowing he called/limp originally. It's clearly a snap.

Lastly, I make it a default to always agree when asked if I had a perticular hand. It makes them feel better so I'm the nice guy and it makes them think they had a good read on me.

Keep studying.

He probably lied and told you he had AA just because its easier. It gets a little awkward if hes leaving and he tells you that you made a terrible fold.

Garik very good insight and brake down. I really enjoy your thoughts

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Good fold.

Trust your instincts/gut. Besides, people that stand when the action is on them generally feel very good about their hand.

I'm incapable of folding KK ever in a ring game (before the flop). Too many crazy psychos play live for stacks with garbage. Tons of AQ, AJ and KQ all ins. KK is too far ahead to fold live. Just my opinion.

Great breakdown. I guess this was more what I was looking for. Im still working on the math/odds. So breakdowns like this help.

Thanks

I agree that it's a call (see my breakdown above) but this reasoning is very, very wrong. We can't put him on exactly AA (again, see above), but there is no frigging way we should be eliminating AA based on a limp/shove.

You are very guilty of mirror-imaging here. Just because you wouldn't do it, does not mean that "no one would, including the V." On the contrary, limp/re-raise is a line that is taken with AA/KK more than with any other hands, especially from early positions. Vs reason that if they raise, they'll get a lot of callers and be playing a bloated multi-way pot out of position, and they are sure to get their aces cracked, So they obviously can't raise. They limp in hoping someone will raise for them, and then they can spring the trap after some money is already in the pot.

For most Vs, this will be a 3-bet smaller than a shove, because they are hoping for one call to make more money off their monster. Some Vs though, are so afraid of getting cracked and/or hard decisions post-flop that they just shove. For the worst of those, they're actually hoping that you won't call, so they avoid the risk of getting cracked entirely.

I mean if you think V is playing like you would, what hands would you limp and then shove over a $16 raise with other limpers left to act? None, right? In that case, V doesn't have any hands in his range. Yet he made this move anyway...

You make it sound like this is a bad play. It works very often even though on paper it looks very obvious. If it works often enough to be +EV its a good play. It doesnt matter how obvious it looks after the fact. People still call and they dont need KK to call.

The only thing that makes it a bad play is that most people who limp AA/KK dont know how to play it when the pot doesnt get raised.

I think limp/shoving a monster (assuming somewhat normal stacks and action) is a bad play, as it loses value. I think limp/re-raising for less than a shove has a place at certain tables.

The idea here isn't to debate the merit of the play, though. It's to improve hand reading and stop people from only considering the range that they would play the same way.

Yes, that was a very good point you made.