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Originally Posted by MagicJack69
This is a never fold in my opinion even if he could show you the AA lol
Not this. Math to follow.
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I mean people do this same move with Big Slick and other Ace with paint cards
Not really this either. I mean people do limp/shove AK occasionally, but other than that it's pretty much always a pocket pair. People will raise/shove with other big aces sometimes, but not limp/shove basically ever.
So this is why step one is wrong. AA has 82% equity against KK pre flop. It will stand up 82% of the time. That means that if someone shows you AA after shoving, you should call if your call will be less than 18% of the pot. This, or something analogous to it, does happen from time to time, but this obviously isn't one of those times. It requires either a very multi-way pot or a lot of dead money. In this case, there is approx (we don't know how many limpers there were) $163 in the pot, and it's $125 for us to call. That means our call will represent 43.4% of the $288 total pot.
So what kind of range does V really have? It's hard to tell for sure without more info on V, but he's supposedly "pretty TAG." Let's say he usually raises AK, and since he has position, he'd usually just call our raise. So he has 1/4 of the AK combos. Since we have KK, there are only 8 combos of AK left, so we'll give him two. He likely could do this with all combos of QQ+ and occasionally smaller PPs if he thinks Hero is often has two overs and he can get folds and have a slightly better than coin flip if called. Lets give him 12 combos of smaller PPs.
We have 65% against that range, and should obviously be calling. Even if he never has the lower PPs, we still have 52% equity against QQ+/AKs. We obviously always want to call a shove if we are over 50%, though with money in the pot we don't need even 50%. Even if he only does this with QQ half the time, we still have 44.66% equity, which is 1.26% more than we need.