Table: 1/2, Wednesday Evening, 5:45, 9 handed

Hero: I started the day pretty laggy, but for the last hour or so I've been pretty card dead so I've opened 1 - 2 pots total. Both were in LP, and and both times it was over 2 - 3 limpers and it folded around. Both times were for $13 - $15. Covers.

Villain: Reasonable tight, but I get the feeling she's a tournament player just based on her sizing pre and post. Opens small 6 - 9 most of the time, even over limpers. Split about 60/40 limping/raising, overall attempting to see ~30% of flops. Limp/calls maybe 45% of the time or so. Wearing headphones, and paying attention to her phone a lot, ~45yo. $250

Hand:

Pre:
4 limps around the table including V otb
SB folds
Hero raises AT to $15 from the BB
3 folds
V calls

I feel like this could be a raise or a check. I'm open to opinions on checking, but I don't mind going heads up here or winning the pot out right. $15 raises have been doing just that most of the day.

Flop ($31): 848
Hero leads $20
V calls after 10 - 12 seconds

I think her range here is primarily pocket pairs based on the limp/call pre and the flop call. Likely 99-, not including 44. She may have a few weak suited AceX combos, but not many. I would expect her to raise all ATs+ otb.

Turn ($70): 2
Check, check

My plan at this point is to value bet small any Ace or Ten, and bluff pretty big any King or Queen. Not sure about a Jack. I'd prolly decide in the moment.

River ($70) Q
Hero bets $55

On a paired, wet flop like this, I'd prefer to check/evaluate. If checked through, I'd bet the turn to better support a river barrel. I'd C/F to a strong bet.

As played, 100% repping the Q river.

I think if you get a fold here, the hands you're folding out are flush draws that you beat anyway. You probably are going to get looked up by pocket pairs. Also, if you're right that she's a tournament player, I'd expect her to at least sometimes, maybe most of the time, bet the turn with her pocket pairs. So I'm not sure this bet works as a bluff.

If you think a small bet looks like a value then I would definitely do that.

Personally I'd reverse my bet-sizing if I were you.

Two reasons:
1. You mislead your opponent.
2. You make a lot, or lose a little.

Barrel $55 OTT.

I know the 2 doesn't change anything, but when you raise largeish from the BB and bet strong twice on a dry board, I think you credibly rep a big pair. This puts a lot of pressure on the range you assigned her to, especially with you being relatively quiet over the last hour. She has to be concerned you're betting again on most (all?) rivers cards.

As played, C/F river. It just seems to easy for her to put you on AK/AJ and hero call with 66.

I check/fold the flop. People never fold to me on flops like that, and I've gotten tired of c-betting them. You're out of position with just two overcards for equity. She's calling you with a flush draw, 8, 4, any pair, and overcards.

I might delayed c-bet the turn. But I'd probably give up if called.

I check/fold the river. You're probably only folding out busted flush draws and you probably already beat most of them.

Don't like the raise pre. Not a big fan of the Cbet on the flop vs most 1/2 mouth breathers. If villain were decent you should be double barreling but I suppose that a check fold should be the norm at this level.

Is this the same session as the KQs hand?

Grunch
I'd never raise here PF from OOP. OTF my plan is to either proceed with a double barrel or check and hope for an A or K to bet OTT, otherwise I'd check again. If you think a lot of her range is PPs then double barreling and hoping for a scare card would generally be best, although in general tourney players tend to get pretty sticky since they're used to playing a game with a higher rate of bluffing and aggression. So I'm split on this without knowing more about her post-flop tendencies. As played, I'd prefer an underbluff OTR. Or at least a slightly smaller bet.

If you're raising pre then I like the lead on the flop, but then you have to be consistent and barrel the turn, because this line is repping a big pair and faking concern about the heart draw.

As played, you're going to get looked up - 80% of the time. If she puts you on AQ or KQ then she folds - but that's about it.

Yes.

I'm going to assume it is the same villain from the other hand, too. Given the stack size, it looks like she doubled up and has run good for the last hour.

Your line doesn't make much sense. Even if you luckboxed a queen, you wouldn't bet so much (as you admit with your plan on the river). She would have raised pf if she had an AK-AJ FD based on her range. She would have bet an OP on the turn once you checked. So what you're hoping is that she'll fold 55-77. I would have bet less. If she's folding for $50, she'd fold for $35 as well.

Different villain.

She was at the table when the KQs hand happened, but she folded pre flop.

depends how competent vilain is, if vilain is bad I like betting river to make him fold pairs, but if vilain is remotly good, I like c/c river for obv reason as the hand played out.

If you cbet this flop, you are going to need to double barrel most turns. As played, the bet/check/bet line is going to look FOS to a competent player. It will work with many fish though.

I dont know if a small bet looks like a value bet to this V.
But in general she has shied away from bigger bets pre and post. But I dont havw the sample to know if she just had bad hands or if she doesn't like to call big bets.

A check pre flop seems like the line I would take oop. As played I prefer to bet on the turn instead of the river.

Line is fine tho I probably barrel the turn and check OTR.

Sizing is meh. Fine but methinks smaller works too.

IR2M, your line is repping way too thin for a value hand. If you put her on a pocket pair (or any pair), there is a lot of value in her calling you down.

I'd check back the river after you checked the turn. You are likely good against a flush draw anyways.

Line is fine if she is a crappy, straightforward daily tourney player. IME, they are less likely to think too hard about your range, and are more likely to be scared by scare cards and fold. Her range is really weak, and while your line looks like pretty much what you have, there's a good chance your bluff gets through.

I do agree with Lapidator though, I prefer just to barrel the turn here. It accomplishes the same thing, and looks a lot stronger. V is likely to peel otf with a PP but will likely fold to 2 barrels. Turn bet actually works as a combo bet, as you often fold out a lot of her better hands, and get called by some flush draws that you are actually ahead of.

This is basically what I was going to write. After the check on the turn, I'd look you up with any pair.