1/3 NLHE, 8 handed, a bunch of mainly older guys (older than I), tight, rarely raise, call w/ any suited K, chase draws, etc.

H ($500, LJ): MAWW, one of the more aggressive players here. They all know I play/prefer PLO, but they don’t think I’m a maniac by any means – just tight aggressive.

V (~$200, BTN): MAWG, my age, better than many of the players, but not actually a good player. He’ll call raises with suited one-gappers, small pairs, AX, etc. Will chase draws and call down w/ top pair. Usually bets/raises when he has it, and I’ve seen him bluff. Will 3bet w/ AQs+.

History hand: The week prior, I raised w/ QQ and bet flop and turn on a J-high two-suit, non-connected board. River is a J. I check, and he stands up and says, “Oh, no checking,” and throws in a $100 bet all tough-like. I tilt call and he has something like J8 (no flush draw).

OTTH:

I raise to $15 (normal for me – they are calling $11 or $15, so might as well go big) w/ AQss, one immaterial (fit/fold) caller and V calls on BTN.

Flop (~$45): Ac7h6h. I bet $30, caller folds, V calls.

Turn ($105): Ac7h6h Js. I bet $50, V calls.

River ($205): Ac7h6hJs 4c. Hero? Bet $100 (puts him in), check/call, check/fold?

I would think if he had AJ he would raise the turn with the FD, and we can discount AK since he flatted pre, so I would just go for 100 rather than letting him get to SD for free with worse aces.

I like it. This is a 3 street value hand on this runout at this depth.

Definitely not check folding.

Betting river is better to target weak Ax. Checking river is better to induce bluffs from missed FDs (I’m not worried about 85 obv).

Against described V, c/c may be better since he showed that he would bet for thin value before (may bet Ax if you check)

Pot or all in on turn.

As played depends on if you think he'll bluff here.

He's going to have mostly weaker Ax, busted draws and maybe something like 99.

Maybe bet like 25. I don't like all in as he seems weak to me. So I like check or some small inducing bet.

I always lean checking giving them chance to bluff
especially if I'm willing to bet the $100 then I know I'm calling with it

A FD though is really a small part of his range in total, so we're banking on him having one and then we're banking on him bluffing away with an ace on the board which he doesn't have so he's likely rolling over all his aces and not betting or calling a bet with everything else, and he's def not raising a small bet with hands we beat either. I would want max value on all his calling hands.

Wassup, Newt!

Stand up, say, "Oh, no checking", and toss in a hundo. Then wink at him.

I mean, seriously, how do we not triple barrel off here, against this V? Guessing he's got ace-rag.

I think betting the river is a little thin, but we have to do it. If we could be certain (edit: certain enough) he's never betting worse then the river could be a x/fold.

I would ship it since he’s calling all Ax.

He only has $100 behind, I don't think $25 is inducing anything. Is he really gonna Jam giving hero a decision of $75 to win $400?

I'd just jam for $100, he has plenty of hands that can call and he's supposed to just give up with a lot of his FD here I think, unless there's a read that he's jamming too many bluffs here

Yeah tough to say and it really hinges on his tendencies, but his range is so weak compared to our hand I don't think jamming is the highest EV here because you give 0% chance for any bluffs and he's going to hero fold some of his weakest Aces that maybe value bet if you check.

I just don't think his calling range is that big compared to all the busted draws he has.

My default would be to value shove the river but read OP again. There’s a reason Java mentioned the history hand. He may value-own himself with a weaker ace anyway. If so, c/c gets his chips from value AND bluffs.

Yeah my point is that even if he only bluffs a very small % of the time that is still greater than 0 which is what you get if you just jam.

So now you're stuck w/ just hoping he calls his Ax.

But I guess the assessment here is how often he calls his Ax when you jam vs how often he bluffs and value bets Ax.

My feeling is the second bucket will be higher frequency than the first.

But if you think he literally will bluff 0% of the time and never value bet a worse Ax then of course just betting is better.

I would bet. The main draw is hearts but the most common heart hand has an Ace in it. If the Ah was on the board it might be different.

The info in the OP is definitely highly relevant that he can value bet thinly, but will he fold value hands that he'd otherwise bet?

In a vacuum without the info this would be a clear bet, with the info it's a lot closer but it's still a bet for me.

This was my thought. I didn't want to let him off the hook, and I thought he might take a stab, so I checked. He immediately shoved his $97 into the pot, I said if you hit the straight you are good just as he said, "I'm not scared of your aces." Really weird because he had Th9h. For a second I thought I lost the hand.

After the hand he said, "She's not supposed to call there." LOL.

Two hands later, he bought back in for $100, $6 UTG straddle, I raise to $20 UTG+1 w/ AcQc, he shoves, and I snap. He has 33 and I spike an A. Easy game

Knowing he thinks this in hindsight, check is just so much better yeah.

But like I said even readless when you bet you guarantee yourself to make $0 more dollars.

I prefer to give myself a chance even if it's small.
1% of $97 extra is still better than 0% of $97.

WP.

I see you doing that, and I know that your hand is AKs, AQs, AA, KK, QQ, JJ. Keep your raises the same size.

In terms of what to do, what he's doing, calling with 0 aggression, screams bad ace. Stack him for that stupidity. There's scores of new/bad players who can never figure out that no, ace garbage is not a good hand.

Nice hand (both of them).

The decision to check to induce or bet for value is tough, I think, because of your description of V, depending on which part we emphasize:

"He’ll call raises with suited one-gappers, small pairs, AX, etc." - okay, so he could have some worse AX here. Go ahead and bet. Or are you putting him on 64s (because suited one-gapper) or a set?

"Will chase draws..." - Uhm...okay, check and hope he bluffs.

"... and call down w/ top pair." - got it. He could have some worse top pairs. Go ahead and bet.

"Usually bets/raises when he has it..." - got it. He hasn't raised, so our hand is good. Go ahead and bet.

"...and I’ve seen him bluff. " - Oh, okay. Fine, then, check and let him bluff.

"Will 3bet w/ AQs+" - Flip a coin. Check or bet. I dunno. You're all over the map with the read on this guy.

The part of the read that's missing is how often this guy will check back river with weak top pairs after you raise pre and barrel two streets, versus how often he bets whenever you check to him, either with missed draws, worse value, or total air. Does he like to v-bet thin?

Without knowing how often he's betting or giving up, I prefer a bet, because of this: "not actually a good player".

A good player might bet thin for value with a worse hand, or find more bluffs, or find a nitty fold with a worse ace. A bad player might think the pot is big enough and check-back a weak A, or be too scared to bluff because you're capable of making a hero call, or make a loose call, etc.

I don't want to miss a bet against this guy, with a hand this strong. If we check and he bluffs, he'll bluff less in the future. If he checks-back, and sees what we have, he may be less likely to stab at it the next time we check river with a strong hand. If we bet and he folds, we can bluff more in the future. If we bet and he calls, he might go on tilt.

I always keep my raises the same size, whether it's AA or 56s. The table was raising to $11 or $12; I was raising to $15+. (Read my other posts and you will know this.)

Remember, V sees me as tight/aggressive. If I bet the river for $100, he can fold all of his weak AX and every hand he might bluff. He's not a "good" player, but he's not stupid. He must think I have at least an A if I shove his last $100. He's rarely calling w/ a worse A, but he might. This one of the spots where I took the chance he's shove just hoping I'd fold. Glad I was right.

Ah - in all my thinking about what V was doing, I overlooked how he sees you.

He may not be stupid, but he does sound like an a$$.

With stack sizes, im getting it all in with top pair with basically this exact line every time, sometimes he has 2p, but he calls down with tpnk too. If you jammed river, well played.

Also as an aside, you cant describe someone who “calls down with any suited king” as “tight”. It sounds like the players are loose passive stations.

I said the players will call w/ any suited K -- I meant pre-flop. He's better/tighter than most of those guys (but not by much).

I agree with coin flip, I feel like there are spots where it's best to let him try a bluff (what actually happened) or to just make him try to call you, I think check/fold is the worst of the three though. I think having seen a bluff here is valuable, and I'd lean towards checking for that reason.

I mean he has 200 at 1/3... you have AQ on a drawy board where he has some FDs OESDs and weaker AX. You're never folding once it goes HU w/o a soul read.