$200 NL Straddle pot
roughly 200BB effective stacks ($600)
5 handed
The table is playing pretty tame. One fish at the table, however he is not involved in the hand. Our villain is the tightest player at the table; but should still be capable of making some moves. He has not put in a raise preflop in the 30 minutes or so I've been sitting. In this hand my primary concerns when we are beat are a slow played AK or JJ, or AJ, A6, 66. I think he will raise AT, maybe weak aces hoping to slow me down and some strong draws. I don't think he turns naked broadway gutshots or air into a bluff here very often.

I'm in SB, one fold, Vil limps button
I have AQ Raise to $21
BB Calls
Straddle Folds
Vil Calls on Button

Pot $65 Flop AJ6
I lead for $36
BB Folds
Vil Raises to $80

Primarily, what is our game plan going forward?
Not as important, bet sizing on flop and WHY?

I would go $50-55 on flop. As played probably folding since OOP. Being OOP sucks. Then again it's hard to flop TP2K 5 handed. Meh

Very weird spot here and I'm not really sure what's the best plan of action. You said villain hadn't put in a raise in the 30 min you'd been at the table, had he been limping at all or just folding?

If he's somewhat aggressive there really shouldn't be much of a reason to open limp his button with AK / JJ / AJ / 66, and I think if he does limp AK/JJ it must be to limp reraise a decent amount. But, he could just be really passive Preflop so I guess we can't rule it out.

On the flop his minraises looks like TP to me. Maybe AK/AQ if he limps PF or A10/A9/A7 or maybe A2-A5 suited. I would think his reasoning for raising these hands would be to "see where he's at" and get to SD easier on a scary board.

It doesn't really seem likely to me that he has a monster here. I feel like a lot of players would raise much bigger on a board as wet as this as they're very scared about getting drawed out on. Don't think he has a FD/SD here a ton either, bet size seems too small.

So my plan here would be to call flop (don't think we can fold here getting better than 4:1) and reevaluate turn. I think if he bombs turn we can safely fold.

I think we can bet flop a bit more, something like 45-50. We're targeting weaker As here + FDs + some stubborn jacks and I think he's calling more.

What do you think? Seems like a really tough spot regardless and I'm not really 100% sure on the best plan

Usually bet-folding around 50-55 on a flop like this.

Only a aggro-fish raises AT on a flop like this. You haven't described him as an AF, so it's an easy fold.

Usually for 200 NL the blinds are 1/2, so 200 big blinds wouldn't be a stack of 600.

Flop bet sizing: I would be inclined to bet a little more because you are out of position and the board has draws. You led for about half pot. That gives a nice price to flush draws and if the first player calls, the button might even call with a gut shot, getting 4 to 1 immediate odds and implied odds.
Also, if you bet a little bigger and get raised, you have a better sense of where you stand. Your smallish bet looks a little weak and may be incentivizing V to test you with a raise. Would you pf raise Kk or JJ and continue on this board? His raise might be to find out. Half pot on the flop, with this flop, feels like a blocker. It just feels small. I'd be inclined to bet $45-55.
As for range when he raises you, can't rule out sets, two pair or big combo draws like KsQs, KsTs, QsTs. If he's aggressive, could be a hand like 7s6s.
I hate folding here but it's tough to come up with a range you beat. Best play is probably a fold but I might get stubborn given that we hold TP2K. If we had a spade, def continuing. Without, leaning towards a fold.
Hate being OOP.

Against a tight opponent with no reads, I'm going to give him credit the first time around and fold here, assuming his raise means TP2K is no good.

I don't understand what you mean by 'slow played' since he's raising you. Also, I wouldn't assume anyone is raising AT here readless.

As others have mentioned, I might have sized the flop lead a little bigger. 1/2 pot looks weak in an obvious c-bet situation, so with a bigger bet, you give bad odds to draws, get more value when ahead, and reduce the likelihood that V will decide to make a play at you.

Heads up here, I may even have checked this flop oop, evaluated flop action. I think bet flop check turn line is much easier to read than check flop lead turn, or check-call flop, check turn. I don't think you're going to go for three streets unimproved, and being oop, you're going to have to check somewhere.

Try $40-50 on the flop.

So V limps the button and calls. I don't see why he would ever play AK like this, or AJ, or AT for that matter(then again, this is live 1/2)

A lot of live players seem to not ever raise low pocket pairs, so this could be 66. Although I think he's tempted to flat with 66 here a lot of the time OTF. I think his range consists mostly of monster draws or 66. I suppose AT or AJ if he is really bad. Either way, I don't see him doing this with any hand you are in good shape against. Even something like KT you are barely beating.

Given this board texture, aside from a bluff, what hand do you want to see him turn over that is in his range? AT?

More often than not I expect to see a hand you are dominated by or a draw that you have maybe 8% equity on at showdown. We are OOP, this is a fold IMO.

This one got buried a little bit so I'll spoil it, Vil indeed had 66. I think fold in retrospect even though I spewed this hand. Vil was too tight postflop to be putting moves on here and, as you said, even if I'm folding to Broadway I'm still OOP and not in that good of shape

Consider the preflop action on this hand. There are about 5 hands that he could play this way, two of which you are ahead of by 7% equity(KTss, QTss). This is assuming V is not bluffing here, which he is not given his description.

Assuming V opens every AJ and AK, we can discount them from his range. He either has a royal draw here or 66 the vast majority of the time. Given that he limped/called you, and live players tendencies to 'see cheap flops' with low PP continuing on this flop given the action is surely burning $.

BTW what did you do? Jam?

Even worse, I c/c a diamond turn, and turned my hand into an unsuccessful bluff on a K spade river I play so good.

In my defence, I thought it would be super weird for him to not have AJ or A6 here and thought I might have a little more equity/bluff potential. I considered 66; but talked myself out of it.

I would check the flop and let him turn limped hands into bluffs. We cannot get 3 streets here ordinarily so i would give him some rope. He will bet his Ax if he has one so we dont lose value there. He wont have a FD often enough to worry about.

Bet turn if checks through.

AP i would fold as raises like this are 2pair+ almost exclusively.

Tough spot. Let's analyze...

First I would bet more on the flop. In the $45-60 range because of the draws.

In terms of categorizing your opponent as 'tight' I think it's premature. Just because he hasn't put in raise in 30 minutes could just mean he's been having a run of bad cards. 30 minutes is not even close to enough time to evaluate someone's overall style...but given your read of him as tight I'll analyze as if he is.

Given the PF action and his raise on the flop there aren't many hands your opponent can have. Let's break it down further.

AK, AQ - Possible. Some players would 3bet these hands preflop and some players would call. Would they raise on the flop? Depends. You also hold an ace reducing the number of combinations.

AJ - Matches the PF call, and the raise on the flop. If he's putting you on AK or AQ you'd most likely call the raise. The question is if he's a tight player does he call you with a potentially dominated ace? That would depend on your image which you didn't mention in the original post. It's also 5 handed where hands like AJ go up in value, so calling here would be stronger than if it was full ring.

AT or worse - I don't think anyone would raise with these hands unless they're a newb.

Sets:

AA: Unlikely since he didn't 3B PF.
JJ: Possible, again your image would play a role here. 5 handed I'd probably reraise.
66: Matches the PF call with position/IO and the raise on the flop.

Draws:

I think a tight player would probably fold hands like KTs, QTs if you are perceived as tight. This leaves KQs, this matches the PF call and the semi-bluff raise on the flop.

Anyway how to continue:

If I was in your spot it would be tough decision. It's pretty hard for me to fold TP here, but again would depend on what I thought about my opponent. I'd probably call and check the turn. If he made a decent bet I'd probably have to fold.

You've already shown strength twice by raising preflop and betting the flop. If you then called the raise on the flop(showing you had something) and he bet into you on the turn, TP is most likely no good.

Not cbetting is atrocious.

As played, call see what happens ott. If his sizing continues to suck, call again.

Seems a bit results oriented, shouldn't we be C betting this pretty often? We miss value by not betting and allow villans to catch up for free.

As played we have basically zero reads. What about his ethnicity? Does him seem like a typical TAG. With limited history all we have are our first opinion based on looks and demeanor. What makes you think he is capable of making moves?

As played I don't think anything is wrong with your line. I think bet folding in this spot and this deep is all we can do. We are OOP and our villans raise isn't designed to get us to fold. Once he raises we are playing for stacks by the river. I would say his range is 2pair plus with the exception of huge combo draws.

With out some sort of LAG image or soul read I'm not stacking off for 200bb with TPGK, OOP vs a realative unknown. Bet folding seems fine until we get more concrete reads.

If you really look at his limp calling range, he shouldnt be on this flop very much, and if he has an Ax he will bet it im assuming. Just betting 3 times here bet bet bet is targeting a teenie range of button limped AJ AT. Do we think he has these often?

Many times i get 2 streets from a Qx by playing this way as well as pick off some air bluffs.

Note: If you think the V will call 3 times with any Ax, and several times with Qx and gutshots etc, then by all means bet bet bet. I just do not think the villain connects this board enough so that i give him rope to bluff, and he calls me lighter once i check the flop almost always---many times even twice since if you check, they take you off the ace right away.

If you really think about his range, what do players limp button, call 21 with? Exactly what he held---pairs mostly. So I really do not see the value in a big cbet here. This cbet just takes the pot down a ton right there vs a button limp call range IMO.


If he has an ace he will bet it. He flops a flush draw maybe 5% the time. Gutshots should be few as well and 10 to 1 to hit.



..........and i never saw the results before posting the first time.

Absent of reads, this a fold, if somehow V picked up a read on you and adjusted within 30 mins and is exploiting you here, then you can call and reevaluate ott, but that is unlikely here, imho

I kinda like calling and bet-folding nonspade turns. You can fold the flop if you have a read that villain is very ABC, but it's really exploitable to bet-fold here, even if you assume most players won't raise pure air. It's hard for him to have a winning hand other than 66 given the preflop action.

ANL, there's a couple of flaws in your statements.

First, AJ will have 2 pair. We're losing to that and can't extract value. That's why Qx is not betting this twice. Even if you just mixed up the ranks, it weakens the rest of the argument. A pair of jacks isn't going to bet this out. A pair of queens can't beat a pair of aces and kings. When you add in when you can't beat Qs either, a pair of jacks is more likely to try to bet no more than once and give up. Since everyone cbets to death now, a pair of jacks will be just as likely to peel a card. I think by checking, you value cut yourself since when the jacks bet, it is likely to be a small one. The jacks will call a bigger bet.

There's no advantage to checking if there is a set, since you're going to call it on the flop at least and probably the turn. You don't give the villain a chance to make a mistake and chase you off. If he has Ax, he's not leaving for two streets, which is all you're going to get anyway. He'll c/f the river unimproved.

Weaker hands than jacks are just going to c/f.

Therefore, the only place you can gain value is charging FDs. It is a small part of his range, but it is the only place where we can have him call a bet where he is unlikely to make one.

In situations where there is little difference between checking and betting 95% of the time, then you focus on the 5% of the time where it does make a difference.

When do we know to fold?jk. Are we getting too good of a price vs his range to make it a call?

Totally correct. I was placing villain on a massive PP range, and trying to get one call on the turn from it. The fact a J is there might make that prohibitive.

I had villain on PP maybe upwards of 60% the time or more, and FD only a tiny amount. That assumption may be off, so capitalizing on a FD range would be best for sure if it is.

If he has a PP most of the time, you should check the flop for sure because don't bet into a polarized range. I don't see why suited connected or large cards aren't a big part of his range though.

I didnt see most villains limping button with large suited connectors and smaller ones may not call a big raise was my thinking. Those have to be discounted quite heavily I would have to think.

I was trying to obtain rando bluffs from villain and possible turn calls more than punishing flush draws only because myself I believed the PP range to be massive and the FD miniscule, hopefully giving me better overall profit.

And again, if that assumption about the PP is off, then betting flop would be the better play.

I think a tight player will limp call all med-small pk pairs, he'd most likely raise with JJ-AA and AK prob AQ, but would limp AJ. So Id expect youre behind AJ and 66 here most of the time. A tight player would poss, depending on how aggressive or passive, I feel like hes passive, would call the flop with a hand like AQ, BECAUSE of the draws. A lot of tight nitty players dont want to put big money in on the flop when they are flipping against big draws, they will call hope for a blank on the turn, then fire out in attempts to take it down and protect their hands. So for him to raise here, its AJ and 66. Based on a snap shot of image information provided.

The flop should be bigger, altho it actually saved you money this time, not that we should celebrate that. Then just fold to his raise. Someone else make that play, we can call and reconsider, or if its someone who plays his draws fast, then either call and shove blanks, or check raise turn blanks or just flip with him and get it in.

Also, there should be some noting that these type of players have a hard time adjusting to short handed games, so their range isnt wider that it would be at a full ring. Again, based on the snap shot, this is my feeling torwards this V.

Masta--

Cbetting flop is best. Pocket pairs are unlikely to give us much action because there are already two high cards on the flop. We should be more focused on extracting value from weaker Ax and FDs.

With that said, I think we should usually call this flop raise and reevaluate the turn. Villain's flop raise is a relatively small % of effective stacks, so he could be getting frisky here with his flop raise. I see a lot of Villains raising IN POSITION on the flop over a cbet with a wider range than just 2pair+. Perhaps you are facing a FD, perhaps you are against AJ top 2 pair or a set. We have to discount 2pair+ and sets somewhat however because he might have chosen to slowplay those by sometimes just calling flop cbet.

In any case, folding to the flop raise isn't that bad either. I think folding immediately or calling to reevaluate are both valid options.

Do alarm bells go off when Villain open limps button, or is this a standard play for him?

So long as alarm bells aren't going off, I would also typically raise unless straddler/Button are quite tricky postflop. Being a straddled pot (I'm assuming this is 1/3 NL with a $6 straddle) I would probably raise more preflop ($21 in a straddled pot with a limper seems pretty small to me and I'm not surprised we ended up 3way, which ain't ideal).

SPR is almost ~10, which I think gives us just enough room to bet/fold small on most streets, which I would probably lean towards since board is drawy. If villains were very bluffy against weakness, I would opt for a line of checking a street to induce.

So I'm cool with the flop bet. And I fold to the raise. We're just in too tough a spot going forward if we call. What, we're going to call and check the turn and just *hope* he checks it thru? If so, just fold now and save money. He could easily be afraid of the draws and simply raising nuttish hands, could easily be sandbagging a monster preflop (re: alarms), or even have a hand that is hogging up decent equity (such as flush draw + gutshot).

GcluelessNLnoobG