1-3 NL at the Aria

Table has not seen a lot of action recently. Villain has seemed somewhat tight so far, but not much of a read overall. The only notable thing I've seen is that he folded the SB preflop in a multiway limped pot.

Stacks:
Hero (CO) ~$300
Villain (BB) ~$600

Hero has A Q

6-handed
UTG folds, MP folds, Hero raises to $12, Button folds, SB folds, BB re-raises to $40, Hero calls (?)

Pot: $76
Flop: Q T 2

BB bets $35, Hero calls

Pot: $146
Turn: 2

BB bets $95, Hero...?

I would just snap fold pre to a tight player's 3bet from the BB.

As played I would fold ott. He's showing us it's not AK anymore (he's not tryna fold out AQ; he's expecting AQ to call which is why he bet so much).

We don't know that the BB is a "tight" player. We simply know that he hasn't played many hands recently and is not enough of a drooler to complete the SB with any two. However, Hero open-raised from LP, so there is no reason for BB to assume Hero's range is super strong.

Since Hero began the hand 100bb effective and is basically at the top of his range on the flop and turn, I don't see how he can fold this.

fold pre

FWIW, at least at the lower GTO raise amounts, GTOWizard is pretty indifferent to Hero's PF response, basically saying fold, raise, and call are fairly equivalent.

Yeah, it's understandably gonna be very hard for most people to fold, but I wouldn't of been in that spot to begin with which is why I would of either 4bet or folded pre. When he bets 95 into 145 on a brick turn after we called a 3bet pre and a cbet I don't see this being jacks or even a FD (probably woulda bet more otf), but that's just me.

Pretty sick spot. I think either call turn and call river, just allowing him to punt the river, or just jamming turn. Button vs BB if we flop top pair with AQ for 100bb when we opened 4x and got 3bet to 3.3x, we are probably putting in all the money.

It's very tight, but I think we can fold pre if we think villain is very tight. It's not a fold in theory. With rake it may even be a jam in theory pre. But his 3bet range is supposed to look like this:



When his 3bet range actually looks more like this (maybe):



Then it is just a fold. And let's be honest he's probably not ever 3betting 65s here either.

Yeah it COULD just be AK though, or KJ, or AJ, or KQ, or spades, or AQ. Or a punty JJ. I can see the argument for folding pre, but if we're going to give villain enough credit to call AQo pre and we flop top pair at this spr, I think we just need to go broke a lot, but sometimes win.

If you want to get away from top pair with AQ postflop, I would buy in deeper and maybe raise a little smaller pre. If you're going to play with a $300 stack raising to 4x and call 3bets, then there are going to be a lot of spots where you have to go with it with overpairs or top pair. Q is a pretty good top pair. You're blocking AA and QQ, 6 combos total. You lose to KK which is 6 combos. You are beating 12 combos of AK. You are beating some other plausible hands. Villain will check to you on the river sometimes and you can check it back. Occasionally they blast river and you still win or chop. Occasional you might hit an A or Q on the river too.

There's enough going on with our hand that a call is going to be worth more than $0. Maybe not much more than $0, but I still think it's more than $0.

CO v BB you can probably call. I'm not sure auto folding every offsuit hand apart to a 3bet isn't overly tight. But you may end up in sticky spots and folding can't be bad. If the 3bet was to 50 I'd be more inclined to fold. I wouldn't 4bet myself although I suspect I have a leak of not 4betting enough in position.

When you do flop top pair (particularly when it's a Queen) you've got to be in the mood to go for it at 100BB if you're going to play this, and perhaps make a slight preflop adjustment in future if you do get shown KK+. I think calling down is better than jamming, you're not getting better (or a chop) to fold and the money will go in on the river anyway if he has a Queen, while letting him blast 3 streets with AK is a big part of your overall plan for this hand.

I'm fine with our preflop raise. And I just fold to the reraise. Yeah, this is a LP raise followed by a BB 3bet dynamic, but is that really what is going on? Or does he mostly just have a monster? Our IO versus monsters when we outflop him (such as Axx vs JJ) suck compared to our RIO when he outflops us (such as Qxx vs KK), even in position. Plus just shouldn't be putting in a huge 13% of stacks hoping to outflop.

As played ok with the flop call and now I probably give up on the turn. At least against the majority of players in my game... which admittedly probably doesn't play like a Vegas game.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Obviously it's a call down in theory.

No shame in folding this preflop against a weaktight BB in a 1/3 game.

I do think there is shame in folding postflop regardless.

where are you getting this pre range from? (it uh doesnt look right, it looks alot like a hj raising range tbh)

post what can u do except die. i think pre is too big too esp if table is too tight (raise wider steal blinds blah blah). ev of continuing ott in some manner is like ~20 bb so probably should not be looking to fold, think ok heuristic is jam without a spade and call w a spade

Yeah I would ignore all of this advice. Everything.

+1

-1

Flatting with AQ pre to a tight player's 3bet from the BB just to play fit or fold is horrible, especially when we only have 100 BB's (as is calling off our stack hoping and praying he has jacks and not AA/KK).

I agree that the reads aren’t anything to go off of, but even readless I’m only continuing pre if villain’s 3! frequency is 7%+ here, which is either like 100% of AQ+/99+/suited broadways or a polarized range that includes K7s/54s/ATo and whatnot.

Can’t really fault anyone for explo folding if they have a good read for their population and opponent, can’t really fault anyone for using a standard CO defense strat against an unknown.

What you definitely don’t want to do is peel pre only to decide postflop that actually their preflop range was probably only hands that had us dominated, so time to fold TPTK to two bets.

Yeah the reason you should be ignored is because of how you construct ranges. 0 logic.

The first range is BB response to a 4bb open at 10% rake 2bb rake cap 100 effective and AQo is nearly a pure 4bet jam. The second range actually the SB 3bet range for the same rake structure/stack depth/open size and is AQo is a pure fold to it.

First one looks to be about 15% frequency, and the screencap shows that BTN is the one that has 96bbs, so I'm pretty sure you accidentally did 3b vs BTN open.

It's also much more linear than any BB defense range I've seen, but maybe that's due to the 4x open and rake structure? It just plays straight 3b-or-fold?

Second one appears to be maybe about 5% frequency, which is TIGHTER than anything I've seen against a CO open, and it appears to actually be LESS linear than the BB range? lol

i think he did pre solve with co range with those parameters. still don't think itll be the "right" range bc co would have to open tighter w 4x sizing. dunno solving with esoteric conditions when > 99.5% of player pool has never seen anything remotely close seems whatever to me. is good takeaway though bb isn't supposed to flat when open gets too big at least in this structure

@mlark how can i replicate this?

i do think large leak in general on this forum (not directed at mlark) is people refuse to look at strategy and think they know better while perpetually stuck in low stakes hell.

I haven't seen what range your suggesting the villain has

Yup it's a major leak assigning a wide 3bet range for a tight unknown player in 1/3 on a tight table who just folded his SB after the table limped but now he deceded to 3bet with 55 and A5s? He's probably not even doing this with AT. In a game where everyone's waiting for great hands, he's most likely 3betting with a premium hand AK+. A random 1/3 player isn't 3betting according to charts, graphs and GTO.

Um, count me in Camp Stupid but folding the SB in a multiway pot probably just means he didn't have a hand? After 5 limps I'm probably folding 50% of hands (that's a wild guess) and many other players probably are as well. Can't just say "low stakes and once folded a hand = 3bet range of AK+" - that's an equally wild guess

Interesting discussion overall on preflop ranges; in particular, I did not expect the quoted outcome from a solver.

From the live reads standpoint instead, I am astonished by most of what has been written.
OP only said that V "seems somewhat tight" but that he doesn't have "much of a read overall", and added that V folded his small blind in a limped pot ONCE.
How can we possibly conclude that V is a weak-tight/nit with a ~5% 3bet range from BB vs CO open?

I might be onboard if we said that we base our decision on population tendency at 1/3, bu that has very little to do with reads on this specific V, which are actually close to non-existing.

Also, when this type of hands is posted here, it is somewhat implicit that H ran into some sort of bad beat or cooler, which I suspect may bias a fair amount of the audience.

Yep. It's a total non-read. So he had a hand that is a clear fold even though 5 people limped. He must be super tight.

This is all accurate, and I agree we're pretty much readless, even though he "seems tight so far".

However he's still an unknown and we have no reads to suggest he's 3betting us light. Do most random recreational players 3bet wide out of the blinds in 1/3? If I said it once I said it a thousands times giving players too much credit regarding their skill level and assigning them a wide range usually comes back to bite us in the ass.

If I was confident he was 3betting us wide I would 4bet instead of flatting, unless there was a dynamic where he knows I have light 4bets in my range vs his 3bets so in that case I might flat but to play creative post flop (not f.o.f.).

Again 0 logic. The only thing that means is he had a completely unplayable hand. Nothing more. Nothing less.

Without a lot more info, pre and flop seem fine. At our remaining stack depth, I'd say the turn is jam or fold, and never a flat call, when we'll only have about 1/3 PSB left.

The problem is we're behind 13 combos of AA, KK, QQ, and TT, and only beating 7 combos of JJ, AsKs, and maybe two combos of KQs, unless we think he's capable of taking this line with all his KQ and worse. If we start giving him KQo, and KJs, it becomes more of a flip.

I dunno. Hard to fold, but don't love jamming, and hate calling. I probably jam and reload if we go broke.