Quote:
Originally Posted by ChaosInEquilibrium
Okay I guess AQo may be too marginal to be considered a value raise against Vs opening range. Actually I am often surprised that AQo has less than 50% against {KQo+,AJo+, suited broadways, 44+}. These numbers are sort of fickle: If Villain opens A2s-A5s for example, the equity jumps to 51%. Still, it surprised me, and this probably points to a leak in my game.
What I don't understand from the fold pre crowd is, don't we need to include some bluffs in our range against this player? I know A5s is everyone's favorite, but wouldn't AQo work nearly as well? As far as blocker effects go, it is actually even better.
If we don't include any bluffs, this is exactly the type of player who will catch on and adjust. So we have to have some bluffs.
So, even if we consider AQo a bit too thin for a value raise, wouldn't it still hold value as a merged bluff/value bet?
Just some food for thought...
1) What nutted hands can AQo make? Keeping in mind we are deep and OOP. One nut hand is KJT. That requires that we hit multiple gut shots. Ex. If the flop is KJx, we still have to hit a gut shot to make our straight. 87o will make a straight more than twice the time as AQo.
2) Next nut hand we would love is an A high flush. Problem is we have to have 4 to a flush on board and only the spazziest of Vs is going to pay you off OOP when you bet on later streets.
3) Even if we have the Q high flush, and lots of money is going in on later streets, you are probably beat by the A or K of that suit.
4) So that leaves us with playing our hand as a squeeze. Obv 3 Qs or some such on the flop is possible, but in reality 2/3 of the time we will miss the flop and only make a pair or better ~50% IF we make it to the river.
5) That means we need to play the hand as nutted and betting flop when we miss to tell a viable story. When called, you need to continue your story on the turn. Before you know it all of the money is in the middle and you made it to the river with A high. How many hands do you have to squeeze and get folds pre-flop or on the flop, which are much smaller pots to make up for the hands that you lose your whole stack when you are smoked this deep? Just like this one.
6) And lastly, you squeezed pre and then decided to down bet the flop. I have no real reason other than, if you are going to play your hand as a merge/bluff, you need to get some folds on the flop and I just don't see a small bet accomplishing that. If anything I would size up to 3/4ish on the flop.
7) IF... we could play 1 million hands against this V with this holding and you BOTH got to the river, it is probably +EV. Problem is you may never get this exact hand at these stack depths against this V live ever again. I guess if you have a large enough bankroll to handle the huge swings you are going to range bet this hand hard every time trying to pick up $30 of dead money when barely flipping against a range you can't be sure about.... Have at it. Also have to factor in the times where the board runs super bad and we have to fold on later streets after 3! pre and a C-bet on the flop.
Takeaway for me at least, when deep and OOP I quit playing AXo anything, unsuited broadways and A or K suited 6-9. So to answer one of your questions, yes I would rather squeeze with A suited wheels than AQo. But OOP, I wouldn't even do that against the best players at the table.
Not saying you can't take away some smaller pots pre and on the flop with A high, but bloating the pot OOP will leave you in some very bad spots on later streets when you miss 2/3 of the time.