Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt
you have 45.7% equity vs a range of TT+ any 2 suited broadway cards, AQo+. I guess it's close to a coin-flip, with him the favorite, IF he does this with JTs.
Then there are the players behind you.
That is why Playbig2000 says fold. Highly unlikely UTG has the above range PLUS the players behind you.
Now if it is a coin-flip, as pvhawkeye claims, that is another case.
I'm willing to bet UTG only does this with TT+ AQs+ AKo, KQs which gives you 38% equity [7.8% of that being a tie] HU. So, you win ~31% & putting 32% of the money in the pot. And, that doesn't include the rake/tip. If he shoves with 99 you have a fraction more equity HU.
Imagine him never doing this with KQs?! Then you have 35.5% equity with 8.3% of it being a tie. 27% you win the pot, 8% you get your money back & any dead money if the others fold.
The thing is, when you're giving UTG this range you assume he is limping UTG with his entire range. Since OP did not comment on it, I assume he has a normal open raise frequency so that we could reasonably eliminate AA, KK, QQ, and AK. IMO, as played, when facing this range I am putting this "loose" player on AJ-AT or JJ-22, so we expect him to have a PP a good chunk of the time putting us in the coin flip scenario and the pot odds would warrant the iso shove.