Villain had chopped a WPT regional event the prior weekend for $60k or so and is an older Asian man. Came to the game about 6am and didn't seem like he had been up all night. Has been playing solid and not doing anything crazy. Only been in game for an hr or so. $1500

Hero is drunk, doing shots, and drinking blue long island drinks but been playing solid and using position a lot taking down a lot of pots w/o showdown. Hands that have been went to showdown were winners. Sitting on about $2600

2 limpers Hero makes it $35 with AQo in the hj. Villain on btn flats the rest fold.

Flop ($85) AQ9r - H makes it $55 V raises to $150. I call. I elect to call because honestly I'm not wanting to get it in for 300bb's in this spot. I honestly think at this point I'm either WA/WB so I elect to just call.

Turn ($385) 4 (may put two flush on board but not concerned about that) H checks V bets $300 and I call. Only hand I'm really finding that I'm beating with this line is A9. I don't think V has AK because I'm almost positive he would have 3bet pre.

River ($985) 9 no flush on board. H checks V thinks for 30 secs and bets $500 Hero?

At this point I don't think I beat much as all sets beat me and A9 now beats me. Only thing I could really beat is a weirdly played AK and I don't think he shows up with that a lot.

Thoughts on all streets appreciated and what do you expect V to show up with on the river. Thanks

Is this at borgata? I think I'm calling here. Its really tough for him to have a ahand that beats you. Only one combo of QQ AA and 99. He could have A9 too. I think your line is ok, but I probably 3bet the flop for the same reasons I call the river. It seems like he has AK or a weaker A and might be trying to value bet/blow you off a chop, respectively

Call river. Rest of hand is fine this deep.

Not Borgata. If we 3bet flop are we doing so with the intention of calling his shove?

I would prob fold to a 4bet shove, but how often do you see that happening? He has weaker aces, ak, a9 etc here a lot and will call with a9 and maybe ak too. For instance, say you raise to 450 and he shoves and you fold, you still lost as much as you did calling his raise and c/c the turn, and you make him define his hand otf.

Folding to 4bet shove on flop.

I believe we have to raise flop here, and folding to a 4b.

Click it back to 400-425. You'll invest this much anyway over the flop and turn if villain really does have 99 or a9.

Could be AK thinking he's good. Also could be a9, 99, qq, but it's 50/50 AK, A9

I highly discounted AK because he didn't 3 bet me pre which I had seen him do before when in position. Even if he did have AK I think he was good enough to fold to a 3bet as I don't think he would get 300bb's in with only top pair so I think I lose value by 3betting.

Thoughts on that?

I also think I can eliminate AA and QQ because of him not 3betting pre?

Exactly, if you're gonna discount ak, you have to discount aa and qq. I get what you're saying, but if you think he has you beat, why not fold the turn?

Flat call the flop and keep your range wide to include all Ax, JT, etc.

AK may very well value bet this river, and then there's the AQ you chop with and some random stuff, and now only 1 combo of 99. But your read indicates that is not a good card for you.

How do you think your drunkenness affects the play of the hand?

I'm sigh calling here...

I def. like clicking it back on the flop.

And reevaluate there

Most importantly here I think is your image. You are coming across at this point as a drunk maniac, so I think the expert player here is looking to take advantage of you and may not respect your hand. On the river, you have $500 to win $2000. I think the odds are at least 50-50 that V doesn't think you have AQ or better so its a simple call. Now if you were sober, tight and serious, you should fold here.

I'm either bet/folding turn or check/folding turn.

Edit: deerpathdave, it's 500 to win $1500.

We're repping at least an ace. River is either pure value or value-bet bluff.

Seriously? A c/f turn with top 2 on a board with NO draws made? That seems uber weak to me. Yes our villain has taken a strong line and could have a set, which is the only hand that we are losing to. Since we assume he would have 3-bet QQ/AA we are only losing to 99. I find it more likely he is trying to take advantage of our drunk image with either 2p or a big A.

As played, call. Don't play so deep if you're not willing to go to war with top two on a flop with no straights or flushes!

His range is So heavily weighted towards AQ here that shoving is far and away the most +EV. Given that he chopped a decent tourney suggests that he at least has a lot of the fundamentals down and will be 3 betting AA most of the time, and QQ to a somewhat lesser extent. A9 is not necesarrily an auto call as well, so we can discount AA, QQ, and A9 from his range, meaning that the 9 is the best card in the deck for you because it weights his range to like 75% AQ, 25% hands that beat you in my approximation.

And playing flop and turn any differently than how you did is bad imo.

Our opponent bet really big on the turn as well plus there is no reason why WE can't have 99/QQ/AA as well (I mean, we raised preflop, bet flop and called the raise. Why can't we have a slowplayed set that is now going to check/raise turn?).

Our hand looks like: JT/99/QQ/AA/AQ/A9/Q9/AT-AK.

IMO, Villain is betting for value. We're only beating Q9 (which we lose to on the river).

So, what hands do we beat that villain would raise us on the flop and now bet turn for value. AQ (tied) and Q9.

He could have JT of the 2 flush that was on the turn, so now he has an OESD, but if he has that, why is the bet small on river (yes, I know, extra info shouldn't play a role into our thinking here, but it does).

I don't think this should be called "tough river spot". I think this should be called "tough turn spot".