I think 3 bet isn't good. He's folding aj and calling with all other hands I'm op and his range is all premium hands.

im ok with pre, i hate to 3bet fold specially when we are this deep with a hand that can flop well.

i like the flop check and turn lead. river is close but im calling, lots of combo draw thats missed and may decide to bluff based on all the passivity hero and v1 showed.

Leading flop might be better since the board is so draw heavy. As played I think its a fold. If he wanted to make a play at the pot with a straight draw or flush draw he would've done it on the flop when checked to and a lot of draws are folding turn anyway when the board is paired facing a bet and a call.

Lol 3betting this is terrible. Makes absolutely 0 sense. You played perfectly if you folded river.

Assuming the AQ was off suit (as I originally thought due to your incorrect thread title), why would you not be happy with him calling the top of his range and folding out his trash?

Your read on him was a little contradictory (I believe he is actually weak passive rather than a loose fish) if you had AQo and you think he is opening with a wide range, 3betting would be the best option not because he calls with hands we are behind but because he won't connect with most of his hands and we win even more money post flop.

If he hardly ever raises like you said I would fold AQo because he likely has a very strong hand.

Being that we are suited turns the hand into a multi way hand which could be flatted for it's value or still be 3bet. Whenever I have that choice I prefer to take the more agggressive initiative approach but because he is a tight raiser we cant 3bet him so in this particular hand if we had 4 players we flat. Nothing wrong with folding pre to a tight raiser with only one other player OOP if we think he is open raising nutted hands.

yah thats what i would have done too. on the flop i think you're in a WA/WB situation a majority of the time.

3 betting is stupid since we have draw to nut club flush and can stack a bad player in a MW pot with that hand. they fold too much of their junk that will get it in dominated by our hand etc etc.

again, fold pre and 3 bet pre are both < flatting here.

i'd only advocate a fold pre to someone who is not that good post flop, obviously i dont think thats the case because on the surface this hand looks lol silly -> 3.5 : 1 on the river w/ TPGK!! obviously a mediocre player isnt going to post this hand, therefore i concluded OP to be tier(s) above mediocre.

We're over 14 and a half to 1 against getting a flush with this hand and far less likely if someone else has a flush draw. Why do you think it's smart to make a call getting 2 1/2 to 1?

Your plan is hope to get luckier with AQs than other people would, or where is your edge here?

do you consider 3 players a MW pot?

+1

no youre right, its a HU pot.

c'mon dude, what kinda question is that?

Well, I could 3 bet him to get him to call with all his premiums including Ak, then what? Like what boards do I like against his range? Low boards he is only folding out ak high , to multi barrels. Then 1010 + he is never folding unless there is q+ on board. Which snacks his range also. Idk just a weird spot. Plus I'm oop.

I don't really consider 3 players a nice multiway pot where I would flat a raise OOP with a suited broadway ace against a tight opener (the key here is he is very tight and we expect his raises to be premium hands), I would want at the very least 4, preferably 5 players in order to get paid on it and make money from it in the long run.

where in description of villain is he a tight opener? he sounds more likely to make bad plays w/ TPNK post flop etc

#2. Let's say you're right and for simplicity let's say that every time we miss the flop we fold and lose the extra $20 we invested preflop. All we would need to do is win more than $140 when we do flop really well in these spots to be profitable. Keep in mind that there is already $57 in the pot dead preflop, so we'd only need to make an extra $83+ post flop to hit $140. That sounds like a lock to me, even if we have to play cautiously on the flop.

Math:

7 misses: -20 x 7 = $-140
1 hit: $140+ = profit

And you're not even counting the times when nobody else has an ace and/or a queen and then we hit the best hand and take it down without contest. Or when we flop a flush draw/combo draw vs. a big hand which can be extremely profitable when he hit the turn or river. You also forgot to count the times when we flop straights which might even give us a little better than 7:1.

Or another way to look at it:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK, AQ	45.22%	239,079	66,856
QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88, 77, 66, 55, 44, 33, 22, AK, AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, JT	26.50%	151,382	17,525
AcQc	28.28%	136,750	68,241

I know it's not "exactly" this simple but based on these numbers we are about 2.536:1 to win this hand vs. the given ranges (which I think are pretty generous). We're getting 2.85:1 on a call preflop so it seems fine to me.

I'm also assuming we are a good player who will minimize loses when beat and maximize winnings when ahead which makes me even more comfortable.

its right here (in bold)

oh ok, could be a simple misunderstanding of description then.
when someone's described as loose fish, i take that as a preflop play qualifying statement. when the added "doesnt raise often" follows, i tend to believe its referring to post flop betting rounds.

lol that is exactly why I originally said to 3bet pf. The read is confusing but if anything the fact that he rarely raises would mean when he does raise he has something good (assuming the statement was referring to preflop)

Why is everyone worried about V1 so much?? Post says that V2 shrugs and bet out $100...not V1. The shrug is an instant tell...he's a weak player, why can't he have QJ?? Open ended on flop...he closed the action on turn so figured he'd peel one off and hit.

Anyway, shrug before a bet from a weak player is enough to let me know that I'm chopping against a fish at best. At 3.5 to 1...probably letting it go still just off that read.

Pre is fine IMO...no need to 3 bet a weak/passive player that is raising in early position.

I agree with the shrug (no player would ever do that if he was bluffing or thinks he's beat) we have been debating the pf action and V1 was the initial raiser.

The question I was addressing was: How often do you think we're going to have a hand we could value-bet? Is it 2.85 to one? Higher? Lower?

How often will be maximizing winnings? That's the question I was addressing and which you completely ignored.

List the scenarios and how likely they are. That's what I did. You said I was wrong and then you provided no answer at all to the question.

We could flop a straight so we call. Surely there must be more to winning poker than that.