Reads: None, but villain is young (these guys are more aggro than the older players IMO).

Stacks: Villain has $140, I cover.

Preflop, villain raises to $5 UTG. Three callers. I 3-bet to $30 w/ AK. Villain is the only caller.

Flop comes 10108. Villain checks, I bet $35. Villain goes all in. It's $70 for me to call, I'm getting slightly better than 3:1.

Villains most likely range is 99, JJ, 88, or QQ agreed? Against all but 88 I'm a 3.3:1 underdog. I suppose its also possible, but unlikely, he has like A10. Then there's also the chance he's got like AQ.

So does the possibility of me having the best hand and the possibility of me having zero outs cancel each other out? Fold flop?

as played fold, but you should definitely be checking behind on the flop. No point in betting the flop as your hand actually has decent SD value and if you bet you fold out all the hands you beat and keep around all the hands that beat you (not talking only about the absolute nuts, but even 33 and 22 will stick around)

but yeah, fold definitely you are praying to god your making a soul read

Raise more pre bump it to 45 no need to slow play A K here. Flop bet is too small why only 35 into 75 seems like scared money. His flop raise screams over pair maybe jacks or queens. I put him on a steal. We have blockers so I don't put villain on Ace 10 or K 10. As played shove flop.

I disagree with checking behind on the flop. These are the type of flops that we take easily with a cbet.

Ugg, the weak flop bet makes it hard to evaluate the hand properly.

When you bet weak like that into a board this wet, you are BEGGING competent villains to shove over the top. I mean, weak bets into decent sized wet pots on the flop is similar to dangling raw steak in front of starving wolves and then being surprised when they jump you for the meat.

I'd put villains' range as pretty much ANY pocket pair and villain is putting you on the ubiquitious "AK"

as played, fold.

Villain outplayed you here which was made possible by your weak ass flop bet.

checking flop >>> weak flop bet

Flops this dry will get you looked up by competent players, in fact, it gives them the easy opportunity to raise because they know that flop hits you so little of the time. Flops with one broardway card are good flops to cbet. Maybe its where you play but I don't think there is any point in a cbet with this kind of flop.. its not "just the type of flop to cbet with"

I don't think this is good imo.

I just pulled these frequencies outta my azz but if villain shows up with:

QQ, JJ - 30% of the time

77, 99 - 25%

AdQd, AdJd - 17%

T-x - 13%

88 - 3%

AKo, any2 - 7%

... youd have 28.69% equity and itd be a call given the price your being laid.


And fww if he turned over his hand and showed any pp other than 88, JJ, or QQ we're supposed to call.

Can you elaborate please.

I think $30 preflop is plenty (6x his raise with callers), would maybe go a bit more on the flop, but I think $40 or so is fine.

I'm calling his shove given the stacks size and odds, he can still show up with draws and you have odds against pairs.

I'm calling. Just 'cause he's UTG doesn't mean he doesn't have some stupid hand like 89 J9 79 as well if he felt like gambling.

Villain range could be polarized. That's why he either has air here or a 10.

I like the analysis and I would tend to call here sometimes as well. (OP is the best judge of how often the villain is checking Qs, Js or 9s here) But calling here hoping to see 2s-9s or even a draw is not fun. If we call here, we are better off shoving on the flop to take down the 70.

We're getting just very slightly the wrong pot odds to call if we have 6 outs. Do you guys think there are more draws in his range than 10-X, 88, or 1010?

Also, against 77 or below, an 8 is also an out, giving us the right calling odds.

Tough to say given the SPR = 1 to 1.5 (thats the problem with shallow stack poker, assigning ranges ends up being mostly guesswork alot of the time). I think being overly concerned with 88 and TT here is MOTB. Theyre def in his range ofc, but theres only one combo of TT, three of 88, tiny part of his range.

He shouldnt have a lot of T-x hands in his utg raise/calling range. But then again he shouldnt have a lot of hands that flop draws here either. But then again again, V is a complete unknown so anythings possible.

I think dgiharris hit the nail on the head about Hero's cbet size being atrocious. With 38bb in the pot and 55bb behind vs a randowm villain here I think I'm either checking it back or just overshipping the flop. You should never have to bet/decide.

Btw, I usually don't c-bet bluff in 3-bet pots, just because their range is stronger preflop, so a c-bet is less likely to work.

So is a $45-$50 flop bet better? That's half the pot. If I had AA or KK here, I'd bet that amount as well, figuring I was 92% against villain and would try to lure him in instead of open shoving flop.

I'm still in the checking behind camp. He can't really have A10 or K10 as most never call a 3bet here. I'm not calling mainly because we have an edge on the table and we are praying to god we have 6 outs. Also you can't just "put him on a steal" without any info or tendencies. I don't care if we are JUST BARELY getting the right odds, $70 is a good percentage of our stack in these games and not worth the call considering the edge we have on the table.

And once again, this is not the type of flop that we can "just take down with a cbet," its ultra dry so lets check behind and get AQ/AJ/KQ to bluff the turn and keep the pot small.

This sounds like a tournament mindset. If we're properly rolled this notion shouldnt matter. Barely the right odds is still the right odds. Theres alot of $ in the pot already.

I'll do the ranges later I just don't feel like we are good here enough to make this $70 call profitable in the long run in this situation, feels like throwing away $70 almost always. There's not much metagame that goes on in 1/3 imo.

my opinion this entire thread is a fail so far. Raise 6x with AKo? Make absolute sure that villain only calls with better? WTF.

And once villain does call this huge 3 bet, we still think AK has a chance?

As played, check back flop and give up. Villain is NEVER going to pick up and start bluffing with worse.

Start this thread over iMO.

lol @ "has a chance". lol @ "bluffing with worse". Spoken like a true live donk.

AK has a non-zero amount of equity vs villains range here, the task is to try and determine how much equity thats likely to be and then determine if we're getting the right price call. Period.

Since Venice has been trying to clean the forum up a bit i will overlook your quip.

This hand is botched so bad that calling at this point is probably close. That wasnt my point. My point was how we got to this point. You dont get drunk, ram your car into a police station and then ask how should we proceed now...

And as a matter of fact, i just literally hate trolls who fly by and call me a donk, so lets just play HU on FTP if you wanna test my abilities. No talking, just playing. Friendly game. 1/2 HU, 2/4 HU maybe 3 to 4 tables, whatever u prefer.

wp sir

I think u know if I had the online roll or the skill to play u hu at those stakes I wouldnt be parked in a LLSNL fullring forum. But I like how formulated ur comeback.

btw I totally agree w/ ur "how we got to this point" metaphor.

I play those limits and i am here. I also play 2/5 live and 5/10 live. So i had no idea where you came from. But anyhow, we are ok now. The friendly challenge remains intact though. Im always willing to back up my mouth with my cash. (as everyone should)

Agree w/ backing up mouth w/ cash. And I appreciate the friendly invite. Would def take u up on it if I had the roll. I must apologize tho for calling u a donk w/o having any knowledge about u as a poster or player. Pretty ignorant and presumptive on my part.

Fwiw the reason I responded the way I did initially was that I actually spent a lil time doing a weighted range calc on page 1 that I thought my help some people out (how practical it is is debatable ofc). I felt is was pretty obv Hero butchered the hand up to that point so I was just focusing on how we might go about backing our buick out of the police station lobby.