Hand: $5/5/50, ~$11k effective. MP opens $200, Hero flats in CO w/ Qs10s, BTN calls, BB calls. Flop Qc10c4d. BB x, MP x, Hero b $500, BTN folds, BB call, MP call. Turn 6s. BB x, MP x, Hero b $2k. BB folds, MP (let’s now name Villain) calls. River Jh. Villain donks $4k. Hero?

Only read/notes on Villian had only showed down nutted hands all night and was vpiping like 20%. Kind of confused on this one as with our line, we can easily just call 44/JJ and bottom straights, while raising AK combos and AQ as bluffs, right? The donk line does seem somewhat suspect, but the only bluff I could see here is Ax clubs, which I’m not even sure Villian is raising pre with too often (also was limping, so Ax clubs would be thrown in there, making bluffs even less likely). What do you guys think on this one? What part of our range folds, calls, and jams in this spot? In Villians shoes, if roles were reversed, I'm really tempted to use a bigger sizing here. If you're gonna rep AK, might as well rep it proper and 2x jam. Then, it really puts basically my entire range in a tough spot. No? Am I just a fish?

Cheers,
ringring

You say you can call JJ, but you should never have JJ on the river betting so much on flop and turn multiway. Plus, aren't you 3betting that pre? You must mean TT. It is also hard for you to have AK since you should mainly 3bet that preflop.

Only AK he can really have here should be AcKc. He could also have 9c8c. Shouldn't have Kc9c, but maybe could have it. Also could have QJ.

Have you seen him open limp hands like A9s? And literally never seen him bluff? How long have you been playing with him? Is he not betting any of these hands on flop or turn? Could he ever have JT (how stationy is he, as that hand seems like it should have folded by now).

Can he also be trapping a hand like QQ?

Not sure about this one. My instinct is to call, but depending on how much he might limp pre and the fact that he might never be bluffing really make me consider making a very exploitative fold.

Actually, between 98s, TT, 44, you may have enough better hands that you could fold unexploitably here. Although you could have some missed clubs and KJs yourself which are worse than your hand. And you could have AQ too depending on hoe much uou 3bet it. So this may or may not get to fold for us to hit MDF. But if our read is villain underbluffs and we have enough better hands, I can get on board with folding and I wouldn't consider it a huge mistake.

Not concerned by straights too much as they should only be club combinations unless MP is really bad. QJ is a lot more concerning...does this player open QJo?

I don't see any point in jamming; you're unlikely to be up against worse value hands although I suppose a jam puts QJ under a lot of pressure, but are you betting your AK so hard multiway? There can be plenty of club draws, and maybe once in a while they turn a hand like KJ into a bluff (albeit unlikely) so in a vacuum I think you can call

Yep, meant 10s not JJ. I agree, am fairly aggro so have very little AK in range. Might start doing some more flatting though deep from early/mid position opens. Not too worried about QQ here. QJ would donk fs. Should be playing smaller— if I was rich I’m just sigh calling here. With $2k turn bet, given the fact that one of Villians is over calling, not really bluffing much that doesn’t get there (really only Ax clubs). Also, curious to hear thoughts on jamming river if we reverse roles? Personally, I’d jam AcKc/Kc9c & maybe 8c9c. We’d want to refrain from jamming something like AcJc, correct? Wb getting cheeky and donk jamming AA/KK without clubs? Fishy??

I don't think I would be donking river with anything if roles were reversed. Perception is I can be bluffing a fair amount of AK on the flop and turn. I am only check calling with one combo of AcKc and 9c8c, and that's only if I didn't bet or raise those hands on flop and turn. Even with Kc9c the turn call is kind of dubious. Despite preflop ranges, by the river, I don't think river shifts equities enough for me to want to lead this card.

Even if preflop raiser has QJ here, he is only beating 3 combos of QTs, but losing to 6 combos of TT and 44, plus 98s, potentially K9s. And he is beating bluffs without letting them fire off the third bullet. And if we're going to donk our value hands on the river, what is our plan for checking. Lose?

Villain donking river just seems like a mistake. It's just up to us to exploit that mistake. If villain is bluffy we exploit him by calling. If he never bluffs and only value bets better, we fold.

Now, if villains donks a lot with his stronger hands, that means we can exploit him by bluffing more when he doesn't donk. But if he just doesn't bluff enough, the way we own him is by making him fold when he doesn't show aggression and by not paying him off when he shows aggression. If it's the case that villain doesn't bluff enough, that means we are probably losing this hand and there isn't much we can do about that.