$1/2
$200 effective stacks (hero covers)

Hero - Hasn't played a single hand in the half hour he's been at the table.

V - Late 20s white guy. Looks kind of buff. I sat down halfway through a hand where he was all-in. I'm assuming the action went like this: V raises $15 from EP. V2 re-raises him all-in for $80. V tank calls with AQs and loses a flip to JJ. He reloaded after that and hasn't been fairly loose with a mixture of passivity and aggression since then. He seems to crave action.

Pre-flop
Hero raises to $15 UTG with AK
V calls on button

Flop ($30)
AJ6
Hero bets $18
V calls

Turn ($65)
J
Hero bets $35
V raises to $85 with another ~$80 behind.
Hero folds

Does V have enough Ax in his range to stack off here? Is the SPR too low to ever fold AK here?

Why are you opening to 15 utg? Seems excessive.

Looks fine. Without a specific read that continuing is a good idea, I'm giving up on the turn. Hero will be bluffed out of pot occasionally, but a generic villain isn't bluffing or betting worse often enough for calling to be profitable. Your not pot committed on turn, but if you call his raise you probably are. If you are beat your drawing thin and if you are ahead villain probably gives up when you call, so there is little potential to make any money on river.

Lol what?

Grunch:

Against an action type player, I can see a lot more raggedy aces in his range. SPR is less than 7, I'm ok with GII here. If he has the J, gawd bless his aggro heart and reload.

Hero played the hand well. I just don't think even V as described is raising worse here often enough to make the call profitable, since we will likely have to put in our entire stack to find out.

Wp. His hand just screams jx.

Thought you played the hand well. Preflop raise was good, bet on Flop and coming out on turn. Your two choices are to shove or fold and I think the fold was the right move here. With your preflop raise and flop bet, you represent the Ace and that raise on turn really does look like Jx - tough spot to fold but well played

I just don't know about Jx with that much behind he could have gotten it all in on the river if he did...

...

::grunch:: he found a good spot to bluff I could see him calling more than raising if he had the J and you were still firing away when the jack paired and he knows you have an ace anyway while being somewhat tight so on the flop would he call Jx when he knows you have an ace plus he might be a little tilty. of course he wants you to think he has a jack

I wonder about both things.

1. When villains see hero playing super tight, some villains think he's more bluffable. Other villains think he only puts chips in the pot when he's got the nuts. Most don't alter their game dramatically either way.

2. A good player would just call the turn with trip jacks and position. I often get into trouble thinking V is going to make the good play though. A lot of Vs will think "I don't want him to hit a two outer on the river, so I better raise it up now".

Also, I have seen players make this raise with weaker top pairs. They figure they're calling the river with AT or AQ, so they just raise it up on the turn to give themselves a little fold equity.

I still not sure what the right decision was on this hand though.

Alot of good players would raise here for value. You have $165 left in stack. It's alot easier to GII if we raise turn small, and have smaller bet on river.

It's actually $132. $15 pre, $18 on the flop, $35 on the turn. $200 -15 - 18 -35 = 132.

If V just calls the turn, there would be $135 in the pot with $132 left behind making for a solid PSB river shove if hero checks the river.

If V had a worse A why wouldn't he raise otf? That'd need to be a pretty smart V to know a flop raise just folds out all air and gets him in deeper against a hand that actually hit the flop, so he'll flat otf to get OP's air to fire a 2nd bullet, then when he does he happens to get a great scare card and reps the trip Js. And not only that, he'll raise to about half of what he has left because a small raise usually looks scarier than an allin.

When you read it out loud doesn't it sound insane? It's very often a level to convince yourself to get ai with AK here.

Sorry I estimated we have $167 left in our stack. I have trip jacks and want it all to go in middle. And get called by worse.

PSB on River is large and scary. I for 1 try not to call $100 bets with 1 pair. Small raise and smaller River bet gets auto called by AK.

A $130 ish is only PSB. But it is generally a very large bet at 1/2. Half your V don't have a clue how much is in pot.

I have to agree with this. We are playing live poker, most villans just arent going to be playing these mind games. When a villan raises your double barrell after the board pairs it is just far more likely he has it. Bet folding was something I wish I learned much earlier in my live poker career.

I say NH and well played. The sizing was fine btw. Maybe if you had some history that villan is a big lag that has air in his range far more often I can get behind calling/bluff catching. Shoving just doesn't get called by worse often enough and this is WA WB sort of board when you have AK. You either have 2 outs or your opponent only has 2 or 3 outs.

Vs some opponents k may even check this turn and give them lots of room to hang themselves but vs an unknow I like your line.

Yeah v had no idea of his raise size, he just thought "I haz jack, I'm supposed to raise." had you called turn, v would not have understood how large his river shove would have been relative to pot.

I do think 15 is a bit big unless table was pretty loose and actiony.

15 is a fine size preflop at most 1/2 tables I've played at. If you make it 10-12, you're often playing a bloated pot against 3-5 opponents out of position.

This is probably a smart fold. It's not one I could talk myself into making, though.

For Villain to have a jack here (other than Ace-Jack), he would've needed to call your flop bet thinking "I have middle pair, but this guy is tight enough that I can hopefully take it away from him on the turn." Based on your description, he isn't calling the tightest player at the table's UTG raise, then calling again on the flop while simply thinking "yay, I haz a pair."

So when he calls your flop bet, it's either with a monster that is planning to raise you on the turn (AJ or bottom set) or it's with a weaker one pair hand (AQ, A10, KJ, J10s) that is planning to evaluate/think about raising on the turn.

Then the jack pairs. That's the easiest bluff card in the deck. You bet, confirming that you have an ace. What is he going to do with AQ or A10? He can fold them, or he can turn them into a bluff. If he's feeling a little card dead/frustrated, I expect he'll turn AQ into a bluff here, thinking "whatever. maybe its good. and maybe this nit will fold."

I'm not sure how often V shows up with AQ here, but it's definitely within his range. And calling with a bare jack on the flop seems unlikely, so I'm going to discount the likelihood that he made trips on the turn. I think it often turns out that he's decided he can't fold his ace, so he might as well raise with his ace. Barring a strong physical read, I call.

O.o

Vs almost always put us on AK when we raise pre, now he wants to put more money in when AK has TPTK. Really death, shoving here is burning money.

Edit: Holy crap this thread is full of overthinking. Wtf. I guess I make up for all my spews by making such "hard" fold.

This would be a decision if you had AA and the flop was Q high. As played it was perfect.

I actually raise to 7-10 in EP and 10-15 in LP. I do that because the chance that they flop 2 pair or better is 5%. Whether I have AA or AK they never really flop much but I love that their frequency is full of loose calls pre flop and too many folds on the flop. I welcome the great unwashed masses to call.