AK OOP - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

Two Plus Two Forums Poker Strategy Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash

AK OOP

Post Reply Subscribe

...

12-29-2017 , 05:40 AM

RottPhiler

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 241

1/2 NLHE
Hero: (450) LJ playing tight.
Villain: (250) HJ younger kid, good poker player leans TAG, but can't label him yet.

OTTH
Hero is dealt A

UTG limps, folds to hero who makes it $15, HJ calls, folds to UTG who calls. Pot: $48

Flop:K

UTG checks, Hero bets $30, villain hijacks to $120, UTG folds, Hero ??

Quote

12-29-2017 , 06:34 AM

Mikel Sternmark

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 556

How long have you been at table with villain?

I think I'm gii here. I think KK and JJ 3 bet pre. Possible 77. Given how draw heavy the board is, V could be doing this with enough pair/combo draw here that I'm not folding.

Sent from my GT-I8200N using 2+2 Forums

Quote

12-29-2017 , 07:28 AM

LoserWants2Change

enthusiast

Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 69

Villain is not an idiot. Flop looks to have hit our range, thus strengthening his.

We are flipping against Q 10 clubs, fav against AJ clubs, crushed by a set of sevens and possibly jacks. Villain could have got cute with aces but we hold one, making is slightly more unlikely. KJ is a little unlikely and that crushes us and we are a tad fav against AQ clubs.

Given that we have put in 10% of our stack and it looks like it is going to cost us just over 50%, I am tempted to fold, especially if there is value at the table.

Saying that I am finding this one a little tough.

Quote

12-29-2017 , 08:15 AM

ZuneIt

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 2,160

Unless the LJ flatted pre with AK, he either has you crushed with 77, KJs and maybe JJ that didn't raise pre, or, he has a huge draw with QcTc & a good draw with AcJc. V's range gives him 9.3% equity more than you, along with position & initiative. That's based on him flatting pre with AKs/o.

V has 50%+ of his stack in the middle.

Quote

12-29-2017 , 09:32 AM

NewClintEastwood

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 166

I don't see you playing against hands you beat often enough to call. Players, especially good players, aren't betting that big with stuff you beat and aren't picking a high draw heavy board to bluff after you show aggression. Best case is he has a flush draw with a gutter or AK to be in a flip or tie. If he isn't drawing he isn't betting that large on KQ or worse. Let it go and wait for a better shot.

Quote

12-29-2017 , 09:38 AM

Nogyong

veteran

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,801

He doesn't do this with KQ or worse.

Your pot odds are this:

235/518 =45%

Your eqiity against villain's range is something like this:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

22,770 trials (Exhaustive)

board: K

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AhKh	28.54%	3,573	5,853
JJ, 77, KJ, AK, AcJc, AcQc, QcJc, QcTc, JcTc	71.46%	13,344	5,853

Quote

12-29-2017 , 07:33 PM

RottPhiler

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 241

He had 50% of his stack in, which caused me to lay it down after much thinking. I eliminated JJ, KK, K7, and J7. So I was either crushed by 77, KJ, chopping with AK, or flipping with QTcc. He said "remember the board" as I laid it down, and I knew immediately that he had QTcc. Turns out he had T9cc for the double gutter plus flush draw.

Quote

12-29-2017 , 08:58 PM

NutJob72

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 415

So you were flipping against the very bottom of his range. Sounds like a good fold to me.

Quote

12-29-2017 , 09:05 PM

Nogyong

veteran

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,801

p.s. if your equity against his range (28.5%) is a lower than your pot odds (45%), you're meant to fold.

This is a spot where we're either crushed or flipping. Villain did this into 2 players in a spot where there was not much money in the pot and he knows hero could easily have AK. He very rarely has hands that we crush in this spot.

Quote

12-30-2017 , 06:46 AM

#10

monikrazy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 28,281

Against this villain, fold seems ok, its a sigh if he has acqc, I don't think a good villain should have at or qt with clubs here

So his value club combinations should be aq, jt, qj, t9, 98
I am going to ignore other ak combos as I think flat pre than raising this flop is questionable line

Against this range (I weighted kj at only half as I think good villain folds kj at least some of the time) hero has only 20% equity

If villain is spazzing some other hands we can work this up to a call but fold seems right

Edit: forgot to include acjc but doesn't move the needle much and I might not give that full weight anyway

Quote

Post Reply Subscribe

...