Table:
Most of the table is very loose passive. (I hope that's the correct description.)
They like to call small raises pre flop, and will stick around post, but only for small amounts. They tend to fold post unless they have something good.
There is one reg at the table, but we are friendly and don't really get involved with each other without quality.
Most of this is useless since the V in this hand is the one possibly capable person at the table.

Hero: (500$+)
I've got a winning image. I have been very aggressive in every hand that I'm in, and I'm raising at least 20% of hands, but the deck has been smashing me in the face. A/Face suited at least 2 times per orbit, and the occasional big pair in there also, and raising my BTN/CO when there is no raise in front of me. I'm getting annoyed looks, but I'm showing down quality hands every time, so people just assume that I always have it, not that I'm laggy or spewy.

I've taken the exact same line in three different hands, and V certainly took note of this, so he knows that I can play different parts of my range the same way. (He commented on it after hand 1 and 2, which tells me he's likely competent.)

Villain: (~375$)
He's been pretty quiet recently. Not nitty, just card dead. Has only raised 2-3 times this hour. Raised with Q10s from UTG, and cBet an A high flop with no pair against 2 players, and showed it. So, my opinion is that he's not scared to let his money work for him.

Hand:
UTG limps
Villain raises to 12$ (relatively standard for him)
folds to hero in the SB
Hero raises to 31$
Villain thinks and calls

Should I make this bigger? At this point, my 3! is completely for value, and given my image, I expect him to call at least 60% of his opening range. I pretty much expect him to call whatever I bet (up to maybe 55$ or so) but I'm not sure how much I want to bloat the pot OOP.

Flop: (65$)
AK5r
Hero leads out for 35$
Villain thinks for 10-15 seconds, counts his stack, then raises to 135$
Hero?

So at this point, he's either almost drawing dead with Ax/any pocket pair, or he's got my balls in a vice with AA/KK. I'm going to say 75% of the time he's got AQ/AJ, 10% of the time he's got QQ/JJ and 15% of the time he's got AA/KK. What's my best move here?



As a total aside, I'm trying to work on my hand posting for analysis. Any suggestions? too much info, not enough? Not enough in a relevant way? Thanks.

I'd 3! more pre since your oop and to set up a more favorable SPR if you decide to commit post if an A or a K flops.

V only has 185 left so I just ship it. flatting might be the strongest line you could take

Villiain had 208$ left after his raise, (that number I remember for some reason, and I've updated the OP to reflect this now.)

And really? I'm not saying you're wrong, but we want to make a *bigger* pot, OOP, against a competent villain, with what is still a speculative hand?
I know it's good against his range here, but since SPR will be between 5 and 3.5 no matter what we do (64$ OTF as played, vs 80-85$ for a bigger sizing), we can easily commit with either one if we deem it worthy on the flop, can't we?

I prefer a 3! Of 40. This gives us an SPR of around 4 which is typically a good amount to stack off with on a favorable flop.

AP 3bet shove.

Obv we're never folding, but If we were IP I'd just flat then get it in ott. Since we're oop I think shoving is best.
I'm 3b pre to 40, but it's not a huge deal.

I really don't understand OP reasoning for not raising more "I'm raising for value" then "why would I raise more since I'm oop"
Well main reasons:
you said it yourself you're raising for value, so putting in more money when you have more equity than Vil is never a bad thing. If he'll call $80 with AQ when we have AK then betting $80 instead of $70 is going to be better...(just using those #'s as examples).
Raising more from oop is pretty standard, the bigger the pot is, the worse people play(especially in 3b pots) Someone calling 30 pre then a cbet for $40 is going to get looked up a more when we whiff AK as compared to betting 40 pre and cbetting 60

Call, check shove the turn imho. Shoving now doesn't give him the opportunity to continue bluffing and even give him the false sense that he has the best hand with AQ etc. If we shove now, dunno if worse really calls us. Does AQ really think he'd b good here. I don't think so. =\

Edit: I suppose A5 is the only hand we can valuetown on the flop; but then again A5 is definately shoving a non-K turn.

Only problem with this though is what happens when he checks back turn? If he checks back turn he's never paying us off OTR unless he can beat AK

there are exceptions but generally you wan't to raise larger when your oop.

What is he paying off with on the flop that can't beat AK? I think the only way V puts in more $ while behind is to let him bluff/value town himself.

I'm never folding here and for him to not 4bet pre with AA/KK with these stack sizes would be ridiculous, plus that would be a pretty sick flop if he does have one of those with you having AK. Most of the time he has AK, some of the time A5 and 55. In position I would flat and shove or call any turn card, but being out of position I would just shove flop. Sorry you got coolered, but you have top two pair in a 3bet pot and almost everyone is 4betting AA/KK PF with 180bb.

Flat him OTF. Check the turn, if he checks back on the turn value bet. You're never folding this board and sets are not re raising this board IP. He's either semi bluffing a gut shot as it sounds like he's capable of or you have his balls in a vice

I approach this hand a little different then you guys.

What do we know about villain. Well he can raise somewhat wide QTs utg, and cbet wide, at least so far it 100% on A high board.

We also know he can play a little snug, he's been folding card dead...ok...

We do not know how he acts in 3 bet pots...calls light and tryies to out play??, only calls AA and KK and set mines.... Has a wide value range with AQ AJ suited connectors, because he's deep.

So now given what we know...I like calling AK here , and planning on check raising almost any flop that does not have an A or K on it. This play has got to be ++EV.

What does 3 betting do..well we have no reason to bleive a player capable of folding a lot will call 3 bets light....so his range will be pairs, and maybe AK....thats my best guess. He also may call all his small pairs on any board with out an A or a K and may also do that with AK....In otherwords he may play perfectly against us if we 3 bet AK here. So if I three bet OOP without information, I may have to double barrel, (this may be profitable but without reads I never like to make that plan).

I think flat calling is much better pre flop plan.

But Ok we decide to 3 bet and he calls....
AA some %, KK some % both probably small with out a read...

say jj-77 and maybe some big suited Aces...AQs AJs KQs...maybe because he has position and is deep. If I miss read him...he's deep, calls suited As maybe, and some mid suited connectors (don't really think this as we have not 3bet before and have no reason to blieve he is loos at calling).

He is never making a bluff here...because players put you on AK...and so far I have no reads that he is a lag tard.

Now the flop comes AK...and he raises us....what does he do that with...
AK =4 comboes....and some small % of AA and KK he has one combo of both of these so that leaves him with say 1 combo.

And maybe he raises AQs and AJs to see where he is at, say 50 % of the time.

So that now...16/2 for 8 combos.

folding does not seem smart with only 1 combo beating us...
shoving gets called by AK, and really nothing else...(maybe you could add A5s in and I guess if you think a 3 bet makes sense, hands like this will have to be calling).
calling, check back the turn and making a small value bet on the river...probably gets called a lot.

I think calling and checking the turn makes sense, if you insist on 3 betting when a much better plan seems obvious .

Yes, we want to put more money in oop with this hand vs a decent player. We want to get the most value possible with a better hand than our opponents'. This includes pre-flop. If he's bound to call a 3! ip with a dominated hand to AK then we should be pounding. $40-45 seems about right. The hand will play much easier for you and take some finese out of it so youll be more comfortable getting it in at some point. As played, jamming feels like the most profitable line. Hard for him to call considering all your blockers but is AJ putting in that much and folding? Maybe, because it might be "to see where he's at". Oh well, allow him to make the mistake of playing his hand that way.

raise more pf

call flop raise, ch/ship turn

Grunch.

Hand analysis is solid. It is much better than what we normally get and paints a picture of the table and villain.

Against good players that aren't opening super-wide, I have started to flat more and more with AK from the blinds. I am not saying that is the right play here, but it is something to consider.

As played, I am calling the raise and evaluating what the V is going to do on the turn. I think there is a good chance he is making a move on you. After you call, he knows you are super strong and may slow down.

I am prepared to stack off if necessary.

kind of a sick spot, I think not 4betting AA/KK is definitely possible so I wouldn't eliminate that from his range.

I don't know if he raises a hand like AQ otf though. Also don't think he calls a 3b with A5. I think his raising range is AA, KK, or possibly something like TT-QQ -- a hand worth calling a 3b preflop which obviously only has value as a bluff now. I don't see any other likely bluffing hands in his range unless you think he's crafty enough to call a 3b with a suited king or ace and raise here with backdoor fd+sd intending to shove the turn if they improve at all (which would be massive spew in this spot but idk some people might!)

We also have to consider AK too... there are 4 combos of AK vs. 2 of AA+KK combined, and it certainly fits with how he's played the hand.

Actually... Stove says we're 34.7% vs. {KK+, AK}. So shoving the flop isn't a mistake.

If I think there's a strong chance villain would bluff in this spot then it makes the most sense to call flop and get it in turn, but without that read I think 3b jamming flop is correct.

I'd 3-bet a lil more pre but its ok. Otf I'm trying to get stakes in after he 3-bets so fire away. I'm not taking Aa n Kk out of his range but I'd think he put in the 4th bet pre with those hand. As most llnlh players do

The thing is if we take those out of his range (or as you say, not take them out of his range but just suspect he has something else), what's left in it?

A huge leak of mine used to be taking things out of villain's ranges, and just leaving those ranges empty. I'd think "he can't have this hand that beats me, ergo he can only have some other thing" and call and sure enough he had that hand that I thought he couldn't have. I had honestly expected villains to show up with some totally random hand, instead of thinking "well if he can't have this, what other hands could he reasonably have", and realizing "nah I guess there's absolutely nothing else, so even though he played this hand that beats me really strangely it is still the most probable".

Never put "something else" when ranging someone, or even imply it. It always has to be two specific cards.

AA/KK are always in villains ranges obv. The thing is there is far fewer combos possible. This is why AA/KK are being discounted. Also why would V re raise here with AA or KK most llnl players only know how to slow play monsters. A player that opens UTG with Q10 and fires into the field with his cbet most definitely will call PF with A5

Stoving the hands AA KK 55 JT QT AK AQ AJ we are ahead 74-75% of the time. The question is how do we maximize profit here. Does V call a shove OTF or do we flat here and get it in on the turn.

So, there doesn't really seem to be a clear consensus on what to do in the hand, but I elected to flat the raise and take a turn.

Turn: 10
Villain has 208$ left, hero covers

Obv if he was bluffing with 1010 OTF he got there, and I'll happily stack off.
If he somehow had A10-AQ he just picked up lots of extra equity, and that's good, since he's more likely to stack off with the worst hand, and if he had anything else, well then I'm right where I started.
Time to jam, or should I let him bet?
I'm not really worried about his hand improving on the river, so I don't mind taking another street. I'm not really sure.

3-bet getting it in on the flop is the best line IMO. It keeps your range polarized to monsters and air whereas a call takes air out of your range.

As played I would probably shove turn because I think he is checking back with a lot of his range, including air. The only hands that aren't checking back are hands that have AK beat.

I hate that turn card as his semi bluffs just got there (TT & QJ). Being OOP sucks! If he has a hand like AQ, AJ maybe even A5 can find a fold if his stacks are at risk and we lose value. I'm thinking we should bet into him for the sole reason of putting the pressure on him, we have him covered so its him that gets the felt. Obviously he has an easy decision if he has the nuts or near nuts. Sorry it's early my brain is all I've the map right now