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AJ and missing the flop: cbetting & barreling AJ and missing the flop: cbetting & barreling

03-30-2013 , 07:36 PM
I always find myself lost in these situations, and one came up recently and I wanted to get opinions on it. This is at 1/2NL

Hero: TAG. Only has shown down winners, but has been bluffing a little.
Villains: Both 30 something, fit or fold, but chase draws too much. Standard rec fish. Effective stacks $150. Hero covers of course.

Two limpers, hero raises in CO to 12 with AJ. Both limpers call.

Flop (~$36) KQ7. Dammit. I missed. But this flop crushes my range, but I don't expect villains to know that. They probably have an awareness that their Q7o isn't looking to good. They both check, but they will literally check almost anything in this spot.

If I bet, I probably can fold out weak Queens, but I never am folding out a king. I feel like a bet folds out worse and let's better continue. What do I do? Cbet small or check to try to gain equity on the turn? I am not worried about really being bluffed...

I am just lost cbetting in situations like this. Any thoughts?
AJ and missing the flop: cbetting & barreling Quote
03-30-2013 , 07:39 PM
Checking is weak but with these stack sizes you'll have a hard time getting anyone to fold a K and maybe even a Q. I would bet $30 on flop and give up if raised or called and you whiff the turn. Close to a PSB looks pretty strong and is probably how you would play AK/KQ here, so if they are calling that they must have a hand, and you can still beat TJ if they call on a draw.
AJ and missing the flop: cbetting & barreling Quote
03-30-2013 , 08:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94
Checking is weak but with these stack sizes you'll have a hard time getting anyone to fold a K and maybe even a Q. I would bet $30 on flop and give up if raised or called and you whiff the turn. Close to a PSB looks pretty strong and is probably how you would play AK/KQ here, so if they are calling that they must have a hand, and you can still beat TJ if they call on a draw.
This. Raise bigger pre, I'm raising to 16-20 pre (to get 1 and maybe 2 callers at most)
AJ and missing the flop: cbetting & barreling Quote
03-30-2013 , 08:26 PM
I'm betting $20 here, about 50% of the time. This is more of a balance bet with air then an attempt to get them out of the pot. This flop smashes your range but it also smashes theirs. $20 folds out the air, and that is really all you can get rid of here. If either call, just give up unless you catch a ten, anything else is too likely to give you the second best hand.
AJ and missing the flop: cbetting & barreling Quote
03-30-2013 , 08:30 PM
I'd be c-betting here because I think it can accomplish quite a lot against villains range. If they are truly fit or fold we get better hands such as 22-66 and 77-JJ, 76/78s to lay down. There is a chunk of villains range that will call and which you're value betting against {J10, 109, J9} and a chunk that whiffed completely and hence also value betting against {AX, suitedconnectors}. Villains range that will call a bet and be ahead (presuming they open {AA,KK,QQ,AK}) is {KQ,Q10,QJ,KJ,AQ,77} and I think you can play well against this range OTT or OTR given that you have outs and are in position, a c-bet in this case will allow you to use the increased pot size as leverage on later streets
AJ and missing the flop: cbetting & barreling Quote
03-30-2013 , 10:34 PM
It's close but I think I'm checking that board vs 2 villains or at best throw a cbet around 2/3 pot.I can always catch an A or a T OTT but I would never second barrel unless a King comes OTT. You have to take into account the board when bluffing and generally if the top card is a king or an ace it won't change much later on.
AJ and missing the flop: cbetting & barreling Quote
03-31-2013 , 12:34 AM
I check this flop, espcially in position with a gut shot straight draw to the nuts. Live players come to play. They like to see flops. They like to see turns and rivers, too. They talk themselves into calling more often than they talk themselves into folding, epseically with 100bbs or less with top pair and/or a straight draw. With two players in the pot, I would check behind and hope to see a straight on the turn. Sometimes, the turn will check, and the river will check too - by which time A-high with J kicker will probably win more often than two limper/callers will check/fold a flop like this to a c-bet.
One of the biggest leaks I see at live low limit games is continuation betting too often in multi-way pots when the preflop raiser missed the flop. It just isn't necessary, and I just don't think you will win often enough to make it +EV. On the other hand, on rare occasions where one or both players have a big hand (i.e. top two pair and/or set of 7s) that were hoping to c/r, you can sometimes catch a straight on the turn and stack one or both of them for many times the size of the pot.
AJ and missing the flop: cbetting & barreling Quote
03-31-2013 , 02:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Albert Moulton
I check this flop, espcially in position with a gut shot straight draw to the nuts. Live players come to play. They like to see flops. They like to see turns and rivers, too. They talk themselves into calling more often than they talk themselves into folding, epseically with 100bbs or less with top pair and/or a straight draw. With two players in the pot, I would check behind and hope to see a straight on the turn. Sometimes, the turn will check, and the river will check too - by which time A-high with J kicker will probably win more often than two limper/callers will check/fold a flop like this to a c-bet.
One of the biggest leaks I see at live low limit games is continuation betting too often in multi-way pots when the preflop raiser missed the flop. It just isn't necessary, and I just don't think you will win often enough to make it +EV. On the other hand, on rare occasions where one or both players have a big hand (i.e. top two pair and/or set of 7s) that were hoping to c/r, you can sometimes catch a straight on the turn and stack one or both of them for many times the size of the pot.
This is something I have found to be a leak in my game, and it really is true that sometimes you can get people to stack themselves with junk when you hit.
AJ and missing the flop: cbetting & barreling Quote
03-31-2013 , 02:42 AM
Depending upon my soul read, I'm inclined to check behind. Broadway boards like this tend to have something for everyone, and V's like mentioned aren't likely to fold to a single bet if they catch a piece.
AJ and missing the flop: cbetting & barreling Quote

      
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