Great post mpethy

Although my poker cruncher came up with slightly different numbers. There are roughly %35 flops we could play standard fit/fold. Will show enough profit to overcome position with hand strength alone.

As I stated before, there are flops where we can profitably check/raise as a bluff. Which is main reason I don't like turning our hand into a bluff pre.

Two points:

1. You're giving me undeserved credit. In game, I suspect I'd be a dog to most players in this forum.

2. So let's frame the hand in terms of the four advantages you can have in game:

A. Hand strength. We have a slight edge.
B. Position. Villain has it.
C. Skill. We have it or we fold.
D. Initiative. He has it for the first of four betting rounds; we can take it when appropriate, so call this one a draw.

So here's the question: is a slight hand strength edge combined with a skill edge sufficient to compensate for his positional advantage?

There's no doubt it's a close call. But remember, if we fold, we realize a .4bb loss. So when you call, success isn't just making money; success also includes losing less than $2 per hand on average.

If I think he'll play more straightforward and fit or fold in a 3bet pot without initiative than in a single raised pot with initiative, which is what most of the player pool will do, then I think 3betting will be more profitable than calling. For calling to be better than folding will require us to play back on some boards and win some pots without the best hand and not just play fit or fold.

I think you have plenty of skill to overcome this, going off your posts.

If we call and fold %65 of time we have EV of roughly -12$. If we can break even over the coarse of the other %35 of hands.

22%-I know you can play Top Pair in +EV fashion. Even with RIO.

11% I guarantee you can play flush draw for +EV

Not to mention the 5-6% we flop 2 pair+.

Also know you can find a board or 2. To steal a pot, now and again. (Without playing chicken)

Also, even though it hasn't been brought up much in this thread.

Our RIO arnt nearly as great as many people are taught to believe.

Times we flop an out kicked Top Pair hand. Generally are made up for with our implies odds with suited broadways.

I don't think anyone will argue against 3betting if V is a fit-or-fold player.

Criteria of 3betting a fit-or-fold V:

1. V is opening wide enough that he actually has a folding range.
2. SPR is high enough.
3. We are disciplined enough to not go overboard in small % of circumstances that will completely destroy our overall EV.

pretty spewy ideas in this thread, about c/r cbets, donking gutshots, betting top pair etc...

keep it simple guys.
imo we have the direct odds to call his raise preflop. once the flop is dealt, we have to decide whether or not we have the correct odds to continue on with the hand. fwiw, most likely flop play starts with a check, followed by a fold. nothing wrong with that.

Right, and the majority of players will play fit or fold in a 3bet pot, probably correctly so since 3bet ranges in low stakes games are almost always premium and value heavy.

we would have the direct odds of calling if we had multiple callers while holding a multiway hand, but is playing it heads up fit-or-fold going to be +EV?

i think so, although prob pretty close. imo, the hand itself has enough value vs reasonable opening ranges in that spot.

if you are reasonably close to this players skill level (or better) you should be able to vpip this profitably in most scenarios. in tougher games, bb's play will be important, but that isn't as much of a factor here. as for whether to 3b or call, I slightly prefer 3betting, but it's gonna depend a lot on how comfortable you are in 3b pots oop - you have to realize that checking and calling on Khi flops is going to sometimes be the most profitable line. It's honestly not gonna be a big money maker either way (unless you have a huge skill edge), so if you aren't comfortable then folding is fine.

I don't disagree with your specific point that we'll c/f a lot, but if we play this hand passively and fit or fold, we'll lose more than just folding pre.

In order to justify the preflop call, we have to win unimproved occasionally. The math just doesn't work if all we ever do is check and call the 19% we flop top pair, because we're going to lose some of those, and they won't be small, either.

Also, direct preflop odds are pretty insignificant a factor.

but I think the problem with it is although we are ahead of his range preflop, are we going to be able to see 5 cards and show it down, or is he going to be firing away on every street?

We miss most flops and will have to fold most of the time to a cbet (unless we are calling to outplay him and bluff).

That's kind of what it all boils down to, do we have enough information and ability to play this hand beyond fit-or-fold if we call the raise preflop?

Is playing beyond fit-or-fold with limited info and OOP a +EV decision or just add to the -EV?

Well mpethy just beat me to it. But playing fit/fold won't get it done. Not even close, with reads we have. Playing fit fold you would have to make on average almost +$40 in EV. With top pair hands or better.

I reiterate. You must have ability to pick up pots post flop, and get max value out of your Big Hands (we don't have reads to assume this).

You don't have to be wizard to make it profitable spot. But being fit/fold playing our hand value isn't the answer.

Don't think I can pass up opportunity to play this hand. Which has good implied odds.

Pretty sure we can play it to neutral EV at least.

Rather play a hand, than fold. Even if it is break even proposition.

Holy ****e this thread blew up. I've enjoyed the discussion so far. Looks like there's more to enjoy.


[QUOTE1. Capped range sounds cool, but what's the cap? You don't know whether V would flat QQ+ to a 3bet pre.

2. Having a capped range also means that you're expecting V to 4bet with top of his range while calling with the rest, and that hero is folding to 4bet.
][/QUOTE]

1. Come on RP, you're nit picking here. You tell me. You have tons more experience than I do. What would you put the percentage of perceived lags that 4 bet QQ+?

I work off the premise that the majority of Lags are going to 4 bet AK+, QQ+, (for value) and JJ and AQs some of the time.

2. that should go without saying, but you said it so, yes, folding to a 4 bet.

Of course he can have hand. ANYBODY at any time can have a hand. I'm 3 betting from the worst possible position on the table. I could have a hand too. V doesn't know my hand any more than I know his at this point. It's about equity vs. range, and we've pretty much established that his range is too wide.


I'm going to try and explain this in a way you can't utterly pick it apart. I doubt that will happen. I'm at work right now. I need flopzilla to be more precise, so I'll finish this later

Yeah op crushes as a poaster.

im still trying to figure out what this stands for lol

I am really a bit surprised that so many people advocate a flat when I think we can do better. First, understand that playing fit or fold is how the majority of players play from fish to most "regs". But we can do better than that with a 3bet. Yes, it might scare poeple bc they would think they are "bloating the pot OOP" and they might be uncomfortable cbetting with air. But if you want to crush the live 2/5 game, you can't let it scare you : )

So in this hand, a guy sat down two orbits ago. He wants to be cool like one of the "guys" and might think he's a good player, so he raises all of his broadways, all suited hands, any pair, broadway high cards, suited hands and any ace suited (which is his estimated range based on the number of hands he played so far). Then we get a hand like KTs, but the only "negative" is we're in the blinds. We know he's opening wide so what is the best way to exploit him? Flatting and playing fit or fold is obviously -EV. So we have two choices. Flat him and play creative by bluffing the flop, or 3betting him NOW to FORCE him to hit a flop to continue (or fold obviously which is correct for less experienced players).

So he raises with something like KJ. Then, he get's 3bet by me from the SB. What is he going to be thinking? "oh **** he raised me. He probably has JJ+ but I'll flat him to possibly bust his aces". so he flats. Flop is Q62 with two hearts. I cbet 95 after he flatted 70, now what's he gonna do? Most likely fold and we scoop. He looks at me trying to figure out what I had and I nod my head and say "good fold".

Our other option is to flat then try to bluff him off his hand. The reason I think the 3bet is better (ESPECIALLY early in a session before there is a dynamic) is bc once he puts x dollars into the pot, he is less likely to fold to a raise because depending on the board, he could possibly think that I'm only on a draw, or if the board is bone dry, he might wonder why I'm raising on a dry board and might look me up.

hey man don't get me wrong. I'm glad so many people are wanting to either fold or flat. it only shows how many people are still playing like the majority of the regs who are break even at best (probably why games will always be good). There are also some online pro's who don't play live all the time who would advocate a flat but GTO won't win in llsnl like it would online. It's a lot different.

was trying to write s...h...I.....t......e should have made it sh-t. whatever.

I'm going to get into all of this as soon as I get home. I just need flopzilla for my numbers and combos. At the very least, this has been a very enjoyable debate. I think I'm going to break it up into PRE and FLOP in one post and the other will be TURN and RIVER scenarios.

OK, I'm going to preface everything I'm about to say with this is my first time putting down this much detail. 3 months ago I hired a poker coach who completely reshaped the way I play and think through a hand. I recognize that I am very inexperienced, but I'm still learning and becoming more comfortable with the direction of my game.

Full disclosure, I have only been able to practice on Bovada microstakes cash and trnys, but I will be putting in at least a short session this weekend. I am sure I will miss a few details. I am also sure RP will pick them out right away. So here goes.

A couple of things for a quick recap. $2/$5 blinds. Effective stack of $900. V has been observed opening (about 1/3 of the time in a couple of orbits) a perceived wide range of hands with nobody at the table calling his PF raise up to this point. V in MP raised to $20. Folded to hero in SB who sees K10hh. The question is call/fold/raise.

Somewhere in the thread a 25% opening range was thrown out, so let's just keep that.

I advocate a 3 bet in this spot. In order of preference I like 3bet>fold>calling. Given that I am in the absolute worst position on the table, I'd rather be either the aggressor, or not in the hand at all.

Here is our PF equity vs V's range
(AA-22,AKo-A9o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AKs-A4s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s)

This is flopzilla's 25% range vs. K10s=====K10s has 49.6% equity.

Now, if we just flat $20, we have no way of defining V's range and at the same we cap our own. (this is my main issue with flatting)

If we 3 bet to say $60, and V flats, we can mostly rule out AA,KK, and AK and should be able to discount QQ, AQs some of the time. Let's say V 4 bets QQ and AQ 25% of the time. So now the range looks like this

JJ-22,AJo-A9o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AJs-A4s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,[75]QQ,AQo,AQs[/75]

Just those few hands take our PF equity up to 51.7 %

I think it was mpthy who brought up the 4 edges. So now even though small, we do have an equity (card) edge. We definitely have the initiative (if even for the moment) and against a V that seems to be on the gambly side, we should assume we have a skill edge. That's 3 out of 4 edges. We should almost always be in the hand when we have 3 edges. Flatting completely eliminates one edge. If you go into a hand with only a small card edge and a perceived skill edge, I think you're asking for trouble. I think you're going to end up in spots that you don't need to be in.

Just to be clear, I don't advocate an automatic 3bet all the time with K10s.

I absolutely would not do this against a player with a tight opening range. I also would not try this if I had less than 150BB. I'm not looking to put in more than 25% of my stack with a 3 bet and cbet. (that's just dumb)

I'm going to end the PF here so it doesn't get to be a big wall. Like I said earlier, I'm sure I missed something, so don't be afraid to point it out. (I know RP and MIKKO won't be. lol)

POST FLOP

SO we've 3 bet the V to $60 and he flats. Now what? What's my plan?

First off, I plan on c betting a wide variety of flops. With my range uncapped, I should be able to effectively represent a much stronger range than the V.

If I cbet 1/2 PSB, V has to fold only 33% of the time for me to break even. Does anybody think most V's are going to be able to profitably defend opening near a 25% range and are NOT folding to a c bet more than 1/3rd of the time?

Some worry about bloating the pot OOP. So make a 40% PSB cbet. That needs to be good about 28% of the time to BE. Hell, go really exploitable and cbet 35% PSB. Now you only have to be good 26% of the time. Now you're not blowing up the pot OOP with K10s.

----Pot sizes 1/2 psb $120 + ($60) + V if calls==$240
---------------40% psb $120 + ($48) + V======$216
---------------35% psb $120 + ($42) +V======$204

Here are some different flops..

Any time that I flop top pair, I'm cbetting/value betting. (obviously)

As 6s 3d. I can cbet this flop and expect to take it down quite often. (38.5% equity)

9c 9s 5s. This is a flop I'm just going to check fold. I completely whiffed and see no good reason to c bet. (29.4%)

3h 2d 7s. This is a c bet for me. V range is weighted toward BWs and I have a BDFD. (44.8 % equity)

Ah Qc 10c. Cbetting this because of GSSD AND BDFS. Slowing down on turn if I don't pick up a heart. (55.1% equity)

Jc 10d 3s Here is where I would check/ call at least one street. I have showdown value along with a BDSD. (60.9% equity)

This should give you an idea of what I would be looking for to c bet a flop. As I've said earlier, I do plan on c betting a pretty wide variety of flops, but given that the V only has to fold to a 1/2 PSB 33% of the time for me just to break even, I think this can be a profitable situation against a V that opens too wide of a range preflop.

This should go without saying, but if I get raised at pretty much any point, I am folding without a very strong history and familiarity with V's tendencies.

My goal of doing this was to add something real and concrete to this discussion. I have thoroughly enjoyed the debate. The only thing I ask is that before to rip me apart is please remember that I am basically relearning everything that I thought I knew up till about 2 or 3 months ago, so don't be too cruel. lol

I can continue to the turn and river if some want. (those are pretty straight forward IMO) Maybe I'll let Mikko and Rp rip me up first. lol

Interestingly, PkrCruncher has the same range at 26.7% and constructed slightly differently.

Nevertheless, I'll use above range to make it an apple to apple comparison.

Against above range and "Deal to Flop," KTs has 44.6% equity, 49.5% if deal to river.

IMO, capping our own range is fine, especially if it also means that we keep V's range wide and allow more room to navigate post flop (especially if we are the more skillful player).

Ok, so that is 2.56% of overall range, which is roughly 10% of V's 26% opening range.

So EV calculation if we are always folding to 4bet is -$5.80.

Here's your biggest flaw: you are assuming that V will either 4bet or call 100% of his $20 opening range.

Go ahead and revise your work from here before we move forward.

Sure, but a loose V isn't there to fold cards (because then he wouldn't be loose). Anyhow, I'll see what else you got.

Goes back to my point above, and also that if you reconstruct V's 3bet calling range, you might find that there aren't that many hands left in V's range that would fold 33% of times. Naturally, it also depends heavily on the flop.

Dropping 10% ain't gonna do shiznit. Your 3bet to $60 has already blown up the pot, and $48 (less than 3bet preflop) is probably going to induce god knows what from a loose LLSNL player.

Now you're just manipulating a small variable to get a desirable result to justify your line, but a cbet of $40 isn't going to fold out a guy who just called a 3bet of $60 preflop.

In 2/5, it has to be $60/$45/$40.

Start over with a more realistic 3b calling range for V first.

Basically Miller's pyramid method. As someone who has practiced such method, I can tell you from experience that it is far from optimal in LLSNL.

60% of the times he completely whiffs and we bet and he just folds. Our actually equity is just a back up plan