Villain has about $700. Hero covers. Based on recent dynamics at table, hero believes he's likely to get called much down lighter than normal (hero's been caught bluffing a couple times; also there have been some big hero calls at the table with second or third pair that have been correct)... I'm mostly wondering about my river play here. I shoved river because I think AJ-QJ will call.

If I check river, I don't think villain's betting with anything less than a straight, he might bet two pair though, and I guess there's always a chance that villain will bluff with a missed draw; if villain does bet, his bet-sizing is most likely going to be very small relative to the pot. Hero has aggro/bluffy image, and villain said after this hand that he put me on AK as I'd suspect (which is lol-horribad; I've been raising a ton preflop and my preflop raising range is extremely wide, so his range analysis is ridiculous).

2/5NL... Hero has AA in HJ. Hero raises to $30. Villain calls from CO. BB calls.

Flop (~$95)
J:72

Hero bets $75. Villain calls.

Turn ($245)

J:728

Hero bets $150. Villain calls.

River ($545)


J:728T

Hero shoves and has villain's $440 covered.

Any opinions on this river shove?

I wish I had flopzilla in front of me, because I'm pretty sure if you put villain on a good range any river bet would be thin. T is not a good card IMO. If he is capable of bluffing, I like c/c river so he can bet his draws.

I am currently attempting to gain knowledge on correct NL bet sizing strategies...

Would anyone bet more like $225-$260 on the turn? Giving less than optimal implied odds if you are planning to shove on rivers that complete heavy draws...

What would you have done if the Th came on the river as played?

yeah, turn sizing is very small. i make it at least $200 to set up a river shove.

i actually dont think the 10 is a horrible card for us. villain doesn't have many 9s in his range. JT is about the only hand that gets ahead of us on the river. i can't think of any flushes that get there except MAYBE A7dd.

Definitely bet more on turn. I'd probably put it right at 200.

I think I check/fold.

yeah. even $210 ott makes the pot $645 and villain only has $440 left. that's a very tough decision for someone with AJ.

I agree, should've went bigger.

Preflop: This is pretty large for an open raise, but if people will call big open raises and you have AA you might as well make a big open raise.

Flop: I prefer betting 2/3ish to $60. I think the smaller bet size gets called by more marginal made hands while putting an equal amount of pressure on draws.

Turn: As played, I'd bet nominally smaller, but I think your bet size is fine given the pot size.

River: I'd make a blocking bet of the same size as the turn bet and, even though I'd be getting a great price, fold to a shove. Unless your opponent is very aggressive, most players won't bluff with so little behind.

Just my opinion...

I would imagine your line on a river heart is heavily dependent on villain correct?

*SORRY FOR THE BRIEF HIGHJACK OP!*

I'll often play my AA much like this... But since I had a horrible image at the time, I felt like I wanted to try to get all my money in on the river through most board run outs expecting to be called down very light... And more than just my image, the whole table got a bit spazzy. There was a flurry of big hero calls with second pair or worse, and everytime the hero call was right; the other guy was bluffing.

Ummm, why??? I've definitely bluffed off my stack more times than I care to admit. But given table dynamics and how light I thought I'd get called down, I was definitely not going to be bluffing at this particular time.

I like your line, all the way through.

The big c-bet is really good, as board is a bit wet. I also think it's extremely unlikely that villain's range has any flushes or straights on river.

You're likely up against a big Jack, or possibly even an overpair, which you obviously beat. I think a set or two pair is extremely unlikely, as villain is going to pop the turn, rather than just flat on such a scary board.

Only hand that you lose to, imo is JT.

I suppose you could c/c the river to induce bluffs from hearts, but I think villain's range is more weighted towards made hands like Jx. If villain has Jx, he's checking back the river 100%, in which you miss tons of value. You have a great image for a shove here, so I like the all in. Make him be the hero.

yeah. i probably put the brakes on with a river.