$2/$5

My friend played this hand and texted me afterwards to ask what I wouldve done. I had no idea how he played it but my advice turned out to be exactly what he did.

I'll post the details as he told them to me. 2 limps. An aggro solid kid raises to $30 OTB. Hero reraises to $95 from the SB with AcAs. The kid calls heads up with $750 effective stacks.

Flop ($205) 7s8s9c. Im guessing a lot of you would bet here? My advice was that I really hate that flop and I want to start by checking to see what he does. I will base my next action on what he does. Based on the fact that the kid is aggro hes probably going to bet his entire range and wont be taking the free card because hes going to put hero on AK.

My friend also checked the flop and told me that the kid then bet $155. What do you do now?

If I check this flop it's to c/c.

I would check my entire range on this flop against aggro V.

AP. Check call and check call most turn.


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I'm 3 betting bigger here, mainly to deny proper set mining odds and to charge a premium for him being in position. Something around 120. The thing that sucks about his sizing is that it doesn't define his range too well and gives him decent odds to play a pot in position. Hero's image would help here as well but I'm guessing he can safely range you as having a big hand, so something like 99+ and AQ+.

Pretty crappy flop for us as it doesn't really hit our range at all and there are so many turn/river cards that villain can make our life hard on. Never folding to an aggro villain if I check, which I would consider with the sizing used here. Just a crappy spot to be in really and I think the sizing used pre magnified it.

X/c with As, bet without.

Pot is 45 before hero acts. 25 call would make it 70 so 95 is a pot sized raise, which seems good but it is 12% of hero stack so it (just barely) allows set mining odds for villain. Pot on flop is 200 with 650 behind, SPR 3.5 to 1 so really we should be comitted here which isn't ideal having given odds to set mining.

I'd 3bet to 120 or there abouts too.

As played flop is pretty horrible for us. Say V 4bets QQ+ AK and flats JJ-77 AQs AJs KQs:

On flop V has 9 sets and 12 overpairs with straight draws, 1 FD, 2 overcards + gutshot and only 5 bare overcards. It is a bit thin for hero so checking flop can give some much needed wiggle room even though it is only 8 combos of bluffs V can make.

Hero hopes to get value from 20 combos of pairs and bluffs while dodging a J/T or spade turn (a third of the deck nearly).

The trouble is I suspect checking flop only buys hero one bet from V's bluffs and overpairs. That's because V is IP and when he sees hero call his flop bet and check turn he knows hero is strong and can happily check behind with everything but sets. If hero opts to lead the turn then V sees hero has a strong hand and can ditch his bluffs and maybe his overpairs. If a J/T/spade falls on turn and V bets hero has a tough decision.

Therefore I actually think hero should crai on the flop. It obviously gii vs the sets which is bad but I think V can continue his JJ/TT too thinking hero is making a move with a AXss type hand or some silly strait draw wit a broadway hand hero 3bet-bluffed pre. If V has called any KK/QQ he may stack off with them too. Hero has some lol bdfd outs vs the sets.

Pot on turn is 205, 655 behind and V bets 155. A call leaves 500 behind in a 515 pot so a pot sized raise is allin. Hero can't min raise without getting comitted so it actually looks stronger than a shove since it looks like it wants a call while shove can conceivably get folds.

Maybe I'm over thinking this though and V can't ever call a shove with worse?

This is very close to my thinking exactly and what I told him I would do (and what he did).

The flop really sucks and I dont want to bet it and get raised. So I check to see what he will do. Most people never 3 bet a big pair and then check so he will put hero on AK most of the time. Since hes young and aggro, he will rarely check and take the free card. Villain makes a large bet as expected.

Since its a 3 bet pot, Im not folding even though the flops sucks. I dont want to call the flop bet and check to him because he may very well check behind this time and the board is as wet as possible. There are way too many turn cards that will put hero in a tough spot.

The flop hits his range more than hero's but there still a very good chance its a standard AA vs KK/QQ type hand so I like a check raise. Due to the pot size, I like to just shove my chips in his face and let him decide what to do. So check raise all in is my line.

As usual Ragequit articulated the reasoning much better than me, but I like CRAI here as well. A bigger 3bet sets us up much better for this as well.

Grunch:

Pretty straightforward call as played. Your friend should have sets in his range too, so there is plenty of strength that can c/r, leaving AsAx, KsKx, and like JTs as great hands to c/c. May also bet with AJss, ATss if he is 3b those pre, and c/c AKss and AQss.

So, what's the turn?

Whether or not my friend has sets in his range is not really the question. Very very few people playing 2/5 3 bet from the blinds with 77-99 so nobody is ever going to put hero on a set. That's great if he actually has one, but he can never rep one without having it.

There's no turn action to consider because hero check raised all in.

When H 3b from the SB, what range should an "agro solid kid" put H on?

Do you think that a x/shove otf helps solidify that range or does it disguise?

Im not an aggro solid kid so I dont know for sure. Most people would put him on AA-QQ / AK. When hero checks most people would eliminate big pairs as soon as hero checks.

Most people arent checking the flop in a 3 bet pot with AA/KK. Most people arent check raising all in with it either. Its gonna be hard for villain to fold TT-KK or a flush or straight draw.

The check introduces confusion. The shove may clear things up but we hope it doesn't. We can't force an opponent to make a mistake, only give them the opportunity.

After the crai, the pot is $1015 and its $500 to villain. Hes getting 2:1.

Even if hero shows him AA, hes not folding TT or a flush or straight draw with those odds. An OMC might but an aggro kid isnt.

If he has KK/QQ he will think about it but will probably still call thinking hero can have JJ/TT or a flush draw with a pair or overcards or whatever. The pot is just too big for most aggro people to fold hands like that.

The point is that even if the crai clears up heros range (and Im not sure it does all that much other than its a big hand of some sort), villain is going to call a large portion of the time unless he has total garbage.

yeah. am always checking this flop to him.

hmm. his range is far too wide to ever fold this. but based on his bet size, he is not that strong. I would shove and just take it down now.

Villain called.

I think he can call crai with worse. I've gone back and forth on it but I'm always surprised by how confusing opponents' find a check when they formerly had you on a strong range. Ultimately everyone wants to see the hand dealt and are looking for an excuse to continue. Weird lines give them that excuse. Like you say Mike, pot is huge now and V is getting reasonable odds.

I wonder what our advice would be if V posted this hand from his perspective? What would we range hero on and what would we recommend V to call with?

results?

W/o knowing more about villain I don't think I like x/c. I am probably x/shoving here. Based on his sizing alone I don't think villain will have air. Most players wont be checking here w/ AA/KK and I think he will look you up because of that. If you were deeper and we knew more about villain I might like a x/c otf and then a x/r ott more.

Hero lost a ton of equity by c/shoving an awful board for his hand and reducing V's range to only hands that are destroying AA, or are very likely to destroy it on the turn or river.

Who cares what the runoff was?

GTO, why does it upset you so much how other people play their hands? For someone who has previously claimed to never tilt while playing you're doing a remarkably poor job of keeping your emotions in check in a forum where you have nothing to lose and nothing to worry about

Don't worry though, it isn't just you. Lots of posters get into pretty heated debates in threads where the decision is close or there is insufficient information to definitively say which is the most EV line.

Isn't it possible that both x/c and x/r are valid plays here and we just don't know enough about V to decide which is best?

Isn't it possible different player pools might favour one or the other line?

Isn't it possible that which line is best depends on hero's perceived style and his actual style?

Villain called with TT and hero won a very nice pot.

Wrong, Sir. Hero got villain all in for 150BBs with TT making hero a 63% favorite vs a hand that couldve easily outdrawn him on the turn or given hero a very very tough decision.

Amen

Poker is a game of imperfect information (very imperfect in a lot of spots) so anyone saying "this and only this" either knows something I don't or they are mistaken.

I got laughed at in another thread because I said hero should probably call, maybe shove and folding wouldn't be awful. It looks like I'm hedging my bets like a palm reader but without being there myself I don't know for sure what I'd do. Even if I were there and chose my action based on my own reads I wouldn't promise anyone it is the best line. I don't know it is the best line, I just think it might be!

I've got a lot better at poker since I started accepting unncertainty.