2/5 game full of short stackers


UTG ($300) is a weak passive and limps for 10.

Loose passive Asian woman sitting on $122 straddles to ten. Is stuck and has rebought for the min a couple times. Has been getting her stack in light.


Action is on hero. Hero covers in the SB and has A6ss. Hero looks left and considers that BB is a passive rec sitting on $250; There is only $27 in the pot. Hero decides to iso raise button V, who does't have to act yet in a limped pot. Hero makes it $125.



Is my squeeze a profitable play? Is my hand strong enough to essentially get it in versus 2 short-stack players ATC range, including an UTG limper? I'm risking $125 to win $27 and sometimes I may get called with worse hands. But a lot of the times I'm called I'm either flipping or crushed.


Is this squeeze play +EV?

Very unlikely to be profitable. It will depend on how light the Asian woman will get her money in but she has to be super loose before she is getting it in often enough with worse to be profitable. Then take a small cut from potential profit for UTG calling, which is very unlikely but you are in bad shape when it happens. Another small cut for somebody acting after you having a big hand, which is small but bad when it happens.

Hi variance to be sure.

Sometimes we take down the $27. (+27 times p1 - p1 being how many times this occurs)

Sometimes we get called and are still ahead. In this case:

(a) Sometimes we get called and bink our A and it holds. (+152 times p2)

(b) Sometimes we get called and the Villain binks, not us. (-125 times p3)

(c) Special case, sometimes UTG is intentionally limping to trap and shoves back at us, and we probably fold. (-125 times p4)

(d) Sometimes they both call LOL but let's skip the speculation on that happening - although there are some games they both WILL call <smile>

Add them all up and see if it's "profitable" given our reads.

(If either one of them has QQ+ our reads don't matter much, do they?)

The read at the table is the only clue we have towards estimating p1, p2, p3, and p4.

What we think at that moment will give us the answer if it is +EV assuming our reads are close.

And this is the kind of work we can do off the table so when the situation comes up we can act without completing a spreadsheet at the table.

So is this a fold pre?

I think it's a fold pre. SB 3 bet I think I'd rather have A5ss or A10ss for obvious reasons.

Its not a 3bet its a raise over a button straddle.