So, basically, you're running a 3-street bluff. OK then.

What's your plan for the turn and river?

I'm giving up when my flop cbet is called and one of the main draws get there.

Gofcoursehatinglifewhenwecheckbackblankriverandlos etoQhighG

I keep thinking about this hand. While I agree with the field to check the turn, it's not to give up. However, before acting on the turn, I'm definitely going to take a little time to come up with a river plan.

So, I ask again: before you act on the turn, what is your plan for the river?

If you're just continuing to bet, then it's a naked bluff. If you catch lucky on the river and the villains call big bets when both a flush and straight got there, good for you, but it's not good poker.

If we're checking back the turn it is to give up UI cuz our FE plummets given this line (which is why it is a completely fine line for value).

GcluelessNLnoobG

He checks I bet 100 he tanks for a minute and checks his cards and calls. My plan is to barrel off if a brick river rolls off.

River J (345)

He checks and it is on me

There is less than 1/2 pot left behind he has about 140 behind in a pot of about 345

OK, this is a 3-street bluff and has little to do with strategy and everything to do with player reads, which you've been vague on.

Shove and hope he folds, I'm out of this thread.

Your line doesn't tell a consistent story. Shove and hope he's so confused that he just folds. Please don't ask how he could call you 43o.

If you're going to take a barreling bluffing line, make sure you've left enough in your last barrel. Having just a 40% PSB shove is rarely going to be able to get it done and you're simply going to get too many I-know-I'm-beat-but-I-sigh calls. So in this case your last barrel is only targeting hands like KQ/KT/QT + single heart as most everything else is probably going to call at this sizing.

GcluelessNLnoobG

You don't usually make your money in 1/3 with 3 street naked bluffs with no equity. I definitely encourage you to read The Course by Ed Miller.

As to where you are now, I guess you could shove and hope he had something like KhQx or that he is capable of folding top pair, but that feels thin.

Every street is misplayed - turn sizing doesn't make sense with that SPR.

Results

Preflop, I probably limp here too much so it's worth reviewing the reasons we should raise it.

The primary reason isn't fold equity from taking down the pot preflop, although that remote possibility is worth a bit. (Even loose passives have hands they limped but don't love for $12 more.) But I'll get back to the FE that matters more.

The most important reasons to raise are:

(1) for value -- not so much card value, but value of playing:

• with a hand slightly better than the two limpers' range
• in position
• against loose passive opponents
• with a very playable hand -- not just for classic implied odds (going to showdown) but also one that produces many good semibluffing opportunities.

So with all that, your value of 97s goes up, and you should want to play bigger pots with it.

(2) raising our entire range here avoids bifurcating it. Even bad opponents intuitively grasp what it means if we mark ourselves with "raising hands" versus "limping hands." To put it another way, we can represent a stronger hand than we have and more likely fold out hands beating nine-high later in the hand (depending on a million postflop variables of course).

(3) there is some important FE to be had here, and much of it comes even when we take a flop. If we get one of the limpers and both blinds to fold, that's $7 which almost pays the rake. Even just folding out the BB is nice.

That said we're close to indifferent after raising a reasonable amount -- if our inexpert opponents want to take a flop with bad hands to try to outdraw us on a fluke, or want to try to outplay us OOP, bring it (hence point 1).



I'm probably just longwindedly stating the obvious but that's my first thought skimming the top of the thread.

On the one hand, I'm sorry you wimped out on the river and didn't continue your bluff. On the other hand, good for you for posting a hand that you butchered. Sometimes we need to do that to drive home the fact that we misplayed a hand.

You took some heat here and took it, good for you.

Making a hand and winning at showdown shouldn't be our Plan A here. Or, to put it another way, our Plan A is the sum of two good outcomes. Plan A1 is to win without a showdown; Plan A2 is to make a hand.

(I've been [re]reading some Ed Miller lately; he nails it. Sticking to make-a-hand poker is a major small stakes leak.)

Now, I'm assuming this is "standard" loose passive, not autocall-three-streets-with-pocket-fives-unimproved. If instead they're REEEEEEALLY loose, then often you'll get your flushes, straights, trips, and two pairs paid off. So then I would limp preflop and play make-a-hand.

Then thinking about it that way is probably a leak. Hearts are obviously a substantial subset of hands that call on the flop, but I don't think they're a majority by any means.

You might be reasoning from the fact that you wouldn't stay in with less than a flush draw, but your opponents' flop calling ranges will often be wider.

• Weak aces, jacks, and middling pairs except 88 did not improve and have our represented flush to fear. (Opponents also overrate the weight of a flush draw within our range.) They will almost always fold.
• Broadway gutshots didn't improve to pair+gutshot, have only one card left, and could be drawing dead. Likewise, most of them will fold.

Moreover, if our opponent made a flush and likes his flush, he will probably let us know -- if not by leading into us, which he didn't, then by XR.

I'm sure there are times you think, "one of the main draws got there," on the turn, and you try barreling anyway. Setting aside perception bias, how often do those barrels work?

I think your reasoning up to this point is pretty sound. Betting the flop is fine if and only if you have a plan to win the pot fairly often by barreling the turn. However I would bet more than half pot, because your good made hands are going to want to bet larger with all the draws available.

I don't think that's correct. Some replies I've read so far overestimate the likelihood of flush draws and weak aces in their ranges. But hands like K4, Q8, 98, and 55 are equally likely. None of those has any reason to call the flop.

But for reasons you laid out, the key variable here is how likely you can win the pot on the turn against a flush draw, a Bway or wheel gutshot, or a dodgy pair (weak ace, jack, or pocket pair) that don't improve.

If you narrow it to one opponent who checks the turn to you, depending on the card:

• Offsuit K, Q, or T: Check back for reasons you explained.
• Heart K, Q, T: Depends on how loose is loose. If they can fold a pair-plus-gutshot on the K, for instance, then plan to barrel.
• 9 or 7: Check because you have a pair (and draw), but consider turning it into a river bluff depending on the card and on reads.
• 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2: Fire away.
• A, J: Fire away. It's fairly unlikely they improved, and trips gives them one more thing to fear.

Skipping ahead....

Oh, I didn't see your turn reasoning.

Yeah, I think your actual river play is defensible but it sounds like you multiplied two negatives and got a positive result. First, with the reads you stated I can't see too many situations where I'd expect a river barrel to succeed, conditional on a turn barrel failing. Second, the jack is almost a blank, and your logic about jack-and-a-heart seems MUBSy.

Again, all of that is assuming my "merely typical loose-passive" read is well-calibrated.