1/1 casino game, 5 o'clock in the morning, 6 players left,

Villain is a 50’s Asian gambler. Play very loose and aggressive. We have a lot history before. His vpip is 50 and pfr may close to 20%, like 3bet and squeeze as well with 77+, ATo, KJo. Some times even with 67o 47o. Some times over play 2pair+ hands, bet big when have strong hand. Donk bet turn (after Hero cbet) or any 2bet turn means he is value betting.

He was running so hot in last 10 minutes. Double up twice from another gambler from 100BB to 800BB (he lost one buy in before he sit down this table).

A previous hand that Villain against an another gamble is：gamble open 5BB in co, Villain 3bet JJ to 25BB, gamble call with 56o, flop is 3c7h9c, gamble donk 15BB, Villain bet 125BB, gamble shove 320BB, Villain tank call, and take the pot.

Hero have tight aggressive image to him. Sit down with 650BB try to cover all the players on the table but is card dead, so did not play any pot in last one hour.

Hero have 650BB, Villain covers Hero. Other players have 80-250BB.

Pre=EP open 4BB, MP call, Hero call with 2h2s on Co, Btn call, Villian call on SB, BB folds. 5 players.

Flop (21BB) =T97. all check.

Turn (21BB)=2, Villain bet 65BB, EP, MP fold, Hero snap call, Btn folds (Villain was surprised I call his over bet on the turn).

River (151BB)=5, Villain snap bet 225BB (throw several 25 pound chips into the pot, I do not think he know how much he bet).

Hero?

How should we make decision in deep? mathematics？mental game？

Wow. Not sure what I'd do. He could have so many hands, but I think the only hand you lose to is a straight; of course, the only hand you beat is two pair, but he could have a lot of two-pair hands.

Has he over-bet the pot before? Any idea what it means?

Not sure I can fold river after calling turn, but he's betting huge into a tight player. Time for a good read at the table combined with previous info (over bet, etc.).

The only info I can get is his 2bet (x-r, mini r, donk after cbet) is value betting, didnot see he over bet pot before (he is a losing player, so rarely see he play 300BB+)

160BB dead money in the pot is also alot to him, I think he may would like risk 225 to take down the pot. He know I am capable to fold 2pair.

Most likely going to raise turn for value, even vs the overbet. We know this guy grossly overplays hands and has tons of combos we are ahead of.

AP, not folding river. probably just calling vs his sizing.

Trouble is villain is so loose that he has all the straights and most sets in his range:

J8 and 86 are 32 combos
TT 99 77 are 9 combos

Realistic two pairs are T9 T7 97 for 27 combos.

You are only good 40% of the time.you have to call 225 to win 376 so you need to win 37% to break even. It is ridiculously close but also a stupidly large bet in a high rake% game with a very small winning margin.

I don't think he bluffs often after you call his turn overbet but "throwing" chips may be a sign he is bluffing here. What could he bluff with? Any hand with an 8 can be semibluffing the turn then elect to bluff again after missing the straight on the river. Given how loose Villain appears I'm sure he has a lot of 8s in his preflop range. Besides the flopped straights they are: A8 K8 Q8s T8 98 87 85 88. That is 78 combos! Villain doesn't have to bluff many to tip your already close call to an easy call.

For value, I would like see the river and let him bet weak hand, I am a tight player, If I raise turn for value, I think he will fold tone of wake combos.

I am not sure fold/call/raise on the river, but yes vs his sizing, I think If I shove may only get called with 86 or 8J.

But another thing is I really think he would check T2, 92, 72, 97 on the river.

OP also said villain can 3! 77+ so he may not even have all/any of the sets in his range. He also called from the SB so at least has the T2ss, 92ss 2p combos in his range, all offsuit 2p combos, and so many possible 8x (with or without a pair) combos as well.

Just not enough that beats us to fold vs this guy.

From history, I think he would like squeeze TT, 99, 88, 77, AT a lot of time (but he may want to play small pot after he won 2 big pot)

27s, T2s, 92s are in his cold call pre 2bet as well.

I'm also sure he has a lot of 8s in his preflop range, but he can not overbet all of them when 4 people behind him on turn (yes as he just won 2 big pot he may would like to gamble and bluff more)

Good read. He call not have all TT 99 at all, I really did not put him on a set. He may just call 77 pre. and yes he play 27s 29s 2Ts.

The problem is I think he will check 92, 27, 79 on the river, bet with 77, 86, 8J, 9T, T7, bluff on the river.

It is really hard to fold to this guy, but as he running so hot, he may play different like only play big pot when he have strong hand (straight here).

And he love hero call, I donnot think I could turn my 22 to a bluff If I am behind, he will never, never fold the hands beats 22.

I'd fold the turn. 3x pot turn into the field is usually the nuts. Continuing to overbet river into someone that called a 3x pot bet (which is extremely strong in itself) is probably still the nuts. 32 combos of straights, 9 combos of bigger sets. Fold.

are we drawing dead？

Will he bluff on the river?
will he over play T9 T7?

Crazy players like this don't often slow down because they are running hot. I usually see them speed up to win even more then bust out or leave with half what they had at their peak stack size.

V is in a good position to semi bluff the turn. It is about as wet a rainbow flop as you can get and no one bet so evidently not much strength here. V acts first after it becomes obvious no one has anything, ideal. His overbet clears everyone out except hero AND villain looks surprised you called: that means his expectation was that everyone would fold. Not likely he overbets for value with expectation his sizing folds everyone.

The more I think about this the more I think it is an easy call.

This is my read as well.

He may think any one missed and bet 3x pot on the make very one fold one pair hand (there is only one 60BB player in the pot, others are 250BB+, and I am the only one who got 650BB). on the river he may bet T2, 92, reps bluff and hope me call with one pair bluff catcher, or he bet with 86 8J 77 for pure value, or he bet with 8x for bluff.

And he snap bet on river and the way he throw the chips make me think he may be bluffing, I tank on the river to think if I can get value from any other worse hands, maybe not so I make the call, but he said nuts and show me 86o.

I am not sure if it is bad call or not, if he only bet with 86o, 77+, it is really bad call on the turn and river.

You can never be drawing dead with a set...

Don't know, how much do you wanna pay to find out? This line is so much more often the nuts from a player viewed as LAG/maniac than it is 2p. He has a lot more combos of sets and straights than 2p.

Yeah, that is why they got pay off. But would he just have nothing? like 2x, 78, 8x? and overbet on the river?

Probably not because anyone that calls a 3x pot bet should have an extremely strong hand. He's gonna try to bet you off a set? No, he's gonna try to value bet your tits off, which he did.

So the turn call is marginal, the river is a fold right?

To be fair to the bluff hypothesis villain won't necessarily be thinking he has to bet you off a set. He'd probably think he has to make another 8X fold (given his happines to stack off with draws he likely thinks others feel the same) or get you to lay down a disbelieving pair.

Anyway, my turn read is well off. His surprise is maybe just surprise that he's getting paid yet again!

It just shows, when the big bets come out you always have to put a good number of nutted combos in V's range and discount weaker hands and bluffs.

I think the turn call is a difficult one to justify without a lot of bluffs in V's range. If V has a set then hero is drawing to 1 out. If V has a straight hero only has 25% equity so clearly isn't getting pot odds to call. Does hero have implied odds? I don't know with this V, does he even think about other players' ranges or is he just bluffing and V betting wildly and getting lucky?

Even if V thinks about ranges he has to put hero on his actual hand to believe hero has a boat on a paired river. I think V will pay off at least one big bet on river if hero fills up but you still have the problem of being behind to 9 bigger boats.

I think that is also why 22-66 are not good enough to play in deep stacks. They are not strong enough to play a 500bb pot. I only beats 2p but lose to any set, any straight if he is not bluffing.

So it is a call mistake if we are behind or it is a fold mistake if we are ahead.

Which one is worse?


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River bet feels like a value bet. With the rainbow board on the turn he knows he's not folding so he throws out his value bet quickly to raise suspicion from the hero. It's an interesting mash-up of elementary-level and brilliant-level mind play that doesn't surprise me coming from a loose/agro player. He knows he's not likely to get called by 2p here, while almost anything of hero's entire range here that calls him is losing no matter what comes up.

No way is turn a fold vs this guy...

His range: 77, 99, TT (discounted), J8, 89, T9, T7, 97, T2dd, 92dd, and then a multitude of 8x (88, T8, 78, 98, A8, ect) that he could be betting as well.

We are ahead of his range for sure here, I'm possibly raising turn for value, folding seems absurd.

r/f turn and fold river if he donks out again seems ok to me

R/f turn for info? For value? For protection?
Size?


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