7-handed
Stacks:
$450 effective

Preflop: Hero is dealt 77 UTG
Hero raises to $20, 3 callers.

Flop ($80): KK7
Hero bets $40, BTN calls

Turn ($160): 3
Hero bets $80, BTN thinks for like 30-40 secs and calls

River ($320): 3
Hero thinks for 15 sec and bets $100, BTN INSTA ships for like $210 more, Hero throws up in mouth and then tanks......

I've been at the table for 10-15min. Was on a rush (preflop) and raised 4 out of 6 hands. I lost every single pot I raised though cuz I would get c/red on flop or the board was bad to cbet and ofc I never actually hit when I raise so I couldn't value bet.

Villain probably views me as an aggrofish cuz of all the betting and losing I've been doing. Or he might not even notice anything cuz everyone in this game is oblivious and it's only been 6 hands since I sat down. Or maybe I'm leveling myself and.... **** it I'll just say villain is unknown.

I think with your image betting the river is fine. Without your image, I'd be c/calling this river a lot because I don't expect him to be calling me down very light all the way and usually they'll be more missed flush-draws than hero-calling 88 type hands OTR, but with a crazy image he may be more prone to hero-call you than bluff. As played, throwing up in your mouth is definitely the standard line, followed by a 5 minute tank/click a button. I think most people will probably say it's a fold, but I'm not so sure, have to give it a little more thought.

Wow, that's really tough. Let's look at ranges. Yours is pretty narrow. You raised UTG and 3barreled. To me, it looks like AA, KK, AK/KQ or 77. I doubt you'd barrel a busted NFD OTR when the board double-pairs. I guess one other hand you could have is something like the A3.

Villain's range is a K, a FD, or a PP. He defnitely could have taken a cautious approach with something like the KJ, fearing you had AK, but then sprang to life OTR when he was guaranteed a chop.

I really doubt he bluff-raises the river with the busted FD when the board double-pairs. That's just bad poker, especially when the flop hits your range.

If he's the one with A3, I think he'd just call because again, he has to worry you have AK.

That leaves a PP like JJ, TT. Would he bluff-raise the river? I don't see why. If he thinks you have a busted FD, he would just call. Does he think he can get you to lay down a boat if he shoves? Pretty unlikely.

I think the only better hand he thinks he can push out is AA. I don't think you 3barrel with QQ and I don't think he puts you on 77. But if he thinks you have AA, why did he call the turn? Was he really looking for a spot to bluff you out OTR?

Given this, I think it's a fold.

I'm playing any pair higher than a 7 the same way FWIW, although nobody knows this yet.

If that's the case and the table knew it, then you'd have to call since 77 is the top of your range. (But would villain really wait for you to barrel three times before bluff-shoving river to push you off 88-QQ?)

If the table doesn't know, then it doesn't matter. Only your perceived UTG PFR range matters, and to most 5/5 players, that's pretty narrow.

Dude, this is a fold, ainec imo.

Villain can't have 3x all that often, and 99% of live players will just call with 3x otr. Hard to imagine him bluff-raising river with missed s (and as a rule of thumb, there is not a lot of bluff-raising in live low stakes games). Bluffing range {}! just fold.

I have a really bad image and IMO people bluff players who are losing way more often. Plus aren't live players terrified of FDs? If he had a king wouldn't he pop the turn to "protect" his hand? Or does he think I'm such an aggro monkey that I'll keep betting air so he has to let me hang myself?

Villain isn't calling your flop bet with pocket 3s, and he's raising the turn when he hits his house. I know of exactly one person in my local game capable of bluff-shoving the river, so vs an unknown I assume villain has a hand he thinks is the nutz. That can only be Kx here.

Bet/fold the river is a perfectly fine play with fourth nuts. I think you played the hand fine; villain luckboxed the river. Sucks, but that's poker. I'd fold here and would feel pretty good about it.

frizzled, my guess is that villain had a Kx hand but didn't like his kicker and thought -Hero- might have a K with better kicker. Once the board pairs the only hand Villain has to be worried about is K7, which would seem unlikely given the small (less than 1/3rd pot) river bet.

Results?

Yeah, but some players can play KT/KJ this way because they're afraid of AK. They are also probably paying a lot less attention to your image than you think. Not to mention the fact that its a huge stretch for them to use that "image" to do something like float you twice and bluff-raise the river.

You're giving some donk waaaay too much credit. Way more often than not, when you call there you'll see kings full and like maybe the 5% of the time some guys makes a play at you, well "GG" its still a fold in the long run.