Hand happened yesterday in my local casino.
We play a 5€/5€ game with 11 players. I got the biggest stack with about 320BB's (1600€). It's a multiway-pot w 7 players pre, but headsup after flop.
Game is fairly soft, my image is pretty LAG.

Reads on villain (Stack: 840€ or 168bb's)

- around 35yrs from hungary
- doesn't really speak english / my national language
- likes to make tiny raises with speculative hands like 98ss / QJss / JTss preflop
- I think he just plays his hands and doesn't really think to much about opponent's image, however I'm not 100% sure how he views me
- Big roulette and Black-jack player - told me at the end of the session, that he lost about €6,000 yesterday on roulette. (Notice: This information came up after the hand, at the end of the night)
- Plays abc and doesn't really make moves, beside check-raising with a monster
- However he seems to like to chase his draws and is struggling to laydown TP / OP hands


Only saw him playing twice in our NL game. We didn't really played many pots, no real meta-game and I don't really think he cares to much about meta-game.


Preflop:

- 2limpers, I raise in MP1 with KQ to 35€
- 7 callers total


Flop: (Pot: 250€)

Q95

I cbet 135€. Previously described villain behind me calls and all the other players fold, so we are heads-up.


Turn: (Pot: 520€)

Q95 7


Hero: ?


The hand went to showdown, I'll post results + Turn and river action later. I am really interested in how u guys play turn and river.

Villain's stack on the turn: 670€

Raise more pre or dont raise at all, as played i am b/c 410ish

PREFLOP
Reasons to fold:
1. If the game is playing tight then our raise only figures to get called by villains in a profitable situation against us, i.e. they're calling/raising with AQ+, pps in position, scs in position
2. If the game is playing loose we figure to play a big multiway pot oop deep with a 1 pair type hand that still could be dominated (Implied odds hands play better multiway)
3. The fact that we're deep magnifies the effects of position and we're essentially utg in a 9 handed game

Reason to raise:
Perhaps we have a large postflop skill advantage over the table as a whole which more than makes up for our poor hand+position+stack size combination

FLOP
Here's a little 20/20 hindsight, something I didn't think of when listing my reasons for folding pf: Notice how playing a multiway pot also means that the pot is going to balloon quickly which is bad for a 1 pair type hand like ours and good for implied odds hands that profit off of making a small investment to hit a good flop. Hands like 55 or 99 only had to call 35 pf and now they are in great shape to win a pot of 250 plus a bet of at least 125 from top pair. If the Q or the 5 were a spade then a hand like 67s, 87s, 86s, JTs, pair+spade would also be in great shape.

So we've flopped great for our hand but still we're not thrilled to play against a range that calls our cbet.

Reasons to bet:
1. Unless we have a bunch of nits behind us we can't c/f since it's easy for someone in lp to value bet Qx, semi-bluff JT, or take a stab with 9x
2. Our opponents betting range is generally going to be stronger than their calling range since they will tend to only check and call with draws and weak made hands like Qx and 9x
3. We eliminate gutshots' (KJ, KT, J8, T8, 87, 86, 76) and smaller pairs' equity by forcing them to fold or give them a chance to make a huge mistake by calling

And honestly our opponents may neither bet nor call with 9x given that 8 people saw a flop and they should figure someone has Qx. So again, we're kind of in a crappy situation which is what happens when we raise KQo when it goes 8 handed to the flop.

We're wa/wb except for JT so I'd bet small just to give bad hands a chance to fold with the plan of checking back the turn now that we've weeded out the trash and giving a free card isn't such a concern.

I bet $82

TURN
As this point as soon as the turn hits I'm thinking can he have hands as weak as Q7, Q8, Q9 in his range. 2 of those are 2 pair and 1 of them has a gutshot+top pair. Will he only play suited combos of these hands? That would limit his combos of each 2 pair to 2 instead of 9. A read on his preflop calling tendencies would be really useful.

Here's an attempt at a range:

Board: Qh 9s 5c 7s

Hand 0: 62.175% { KhQd }
Hand 1: 37.825% { KcKd, JJ-99, 55, AQs, A9s, KQs, Kc9c, Q8s+, Qc7c, JTs, AQo, KQo, QJo, QsTc, JdTc, JhTc, JhTd, JhTs, JsTc, JsTd, JsTh }

Notes on range:
1. I included 1/3 combos of K9s and 1/2 combos of Q7s just because I don't know what he's capable of. I don't know if he's folding Q7s pf or if he's folding 9x otf. In the description he sounds like a cautious player since he only c/r with monsters and has trouble folding top pair and overpairs (who doesn't?)
2. 1 combo of overpairs (KK) just because it happens
3. 1/8 combos of QTo
4. 7/12 combos of JTo

I made this range on the assumption that he is loose passive but not super loose pf (due to his cautious postflop play).

Let's suppose he only calls turn with top pair+ and oesds:

Board: Qh 9s 5c 7s

Hand 0: 51.426% { KhQd }
Hand 1: 48.574% { AcAd, 99, 55, AQs, KQs, Q8s+, Qc7c, JTs, AQo, KQo, QJo, QsTc, JdTc, JhTc, JhTd, JhTs, JsTc, JsTd, JsTh }

I'm trying to figure out why our equity is so good in conceptual terms. I suppose it's the power of there being so many combos of JT and we're blocking 1 of his outs. Also it's those Qx hands we beat, which there are more combos of than AQ+. Figuring this out now is important because at the table we have to estimate our equity in conceptual terms since we don't have pokerstove handy.

Okay, if that is his continuing range above then a bet would be super thin. A bet would be favorable for strategical reasons on the river if betting the turn will induce him to check back all hands that we have beat otr since the pot is bloated and he fears putting in a value bet. That would be good b/c we could just bet the turn at even money then check/fold river without being exploited.

Let's say we check the turn, maybe he bets with this range:

Board: Qh 9s 5c 7s

Hand 0: 38.326% { KhQd }
Hand 1: 61.674% { AcAd, 99, 55, AQs, KQs, Q9s+, Qc7c, AQo, KQo, QJo }

He'll probably bet small with a Qx that we're ahead of, something like 200. If we had a bet sizing tell on him and knew he would only bet >1/2 pot with 2pair+ now would be a good time to c/c a small bet and c/f to a large bet. But if he usually bets 200 with the entire range above then we will be getting the correct odds to call. If he only fires turn and river with hands that beat us then we can call once and fold to the river barrel. There aren't many cards that can come off that don't improve his barreling range: 4s, 3s, 2s. But if a 6, 8, T, J, K, A comes off we figure to be behind his barreling range otr (that's the whole deck, so basically if he fires turn and river than we need to fold.

Betting the turn has the advantage of guaranteeing we get a value bet in against JT since he will probably check it back, but it has the disadvantage of forcing us to check the river which may inspire him to bluff a missed JT or value bet a worse hand than ours, but i would say both of those are very unlikely. Thus, I like betting this turn since we would have to call a bet anyway with less equity than we have against his calling range. Let's bet an amount that is small enough that he will call with worse but large enough to charge JT and force him to shut down otr with hands we beat since the pot will be bloated.

I don't love it, but bet/fold turn for 200. That should be enough to get him to make a crying call with Q8s and check back the river unimproved with QJ and worse

Arguments for b/f and checking are both valid(since villain sounds soft/weak and may cib with showdown value type-hands and draws). If villain is a weak player that doesn't "make plays"(as described at beginning of HH) then we can assume that he is rarely jamming ott over our 1/2 pot bet with a combo draw so we can easily fold our hand and feel confident about making the correct fold

I didn't even consider the fact that he has AQss, KQss, QJss, QTss, Q8ss in his range and those are all pair+fds. Doubt he raises them though as he "only has 1 pair." Doubt he raises JTss either given villain description. Even if he does raise them it's rarely. Suppose he raises them all, and he raises 2 pair+:

Board: Qh 9s 5c 7s

Hand 0: 24.594% { KhQd }
Hand 1: 75.406% { 99, 55, AsQs, KsQs, QsJs, QsTs, Q9s, Qs8s, Q7s, JsTs }

So if we bet 200 pot will be 1390 and it's 470 for us to call so we're getting almost 3:1 which is exactly what we need. He's clearly not aggro enough to raise his top pair+fds and oesd+fd 100%, or even 50% for that matter. Besides, flatting may even be the best play since we have the rock bottom of our range for this line which means he has little fe. Thus, we have a clear fold to a turn raise imo

seems like a standard b/f no? im making it ~260

That was also my plan. He is like never jamming ott with a semidraw on the turn. If he jams I still can easily fold.
He is never having two pair combos, since he'd have raised otf, with so many players.

His perceived range is more like KQ / QJ / QT / Q8 / JT / JT ott + AQ the only hand that beats us.



So there are much more hands that we beat, so I decided to vbet the turn instead of pot-controlling it, since he is like always calling with his described perceived range, and I think he'd have raised with 99 or 55 otf, with that many players. In case he just flatted w 99 or 55 and jams the turn we just fold our hand on the turn, even with the given odds, coz we are pretty crushed against this players range, since he isn't the kind of player who does this with a combodraw. Especially random guys around this age, who knows a bit to play and chase, don't go crazy.


Turn: Q95 7

Hero bets 255€

Villain calls 255€



River: 1030€

Q957 7


Villain stack 415€

Hero?


I think river is really standard jam, after our turn action and w this river card. Stacks are obv. a bit awkward for sizing, after the flop.

I like a c/c here. This type of V will sometimes spazz missed draws, but never call with them. If he checks back, we get to realize our SDV, and if he shoves he has a wider range than if we shove and he calls.

If villain will bet most queens and draws/backdoor draws when you check to him doesn't a CRAI look good since the pot is 520 with 670 behind?